MLB Streaks and Trends, Risers and Fallers Week 18: Andres Munoz Is Elite Fantasy Option After MLB Trade Deadline

Published: Aug 05, 2023

Updated: Aug 05, 2023

From today until the end of the Major League Baseball season, Saturday is for looking at the various streaks and trends across the MLB, as well as those fantasy baseball players with rising or falling stock. Who should be your priority waiver wire pickups? Who deserves some of your precious FAAB? Are there any potential fantasy baseball buy-low trade candidates? As always, we’ll start by talking about some fantasy baseball risers and fallers, highlighted by Steven Matz and Andres Munoz, the latter of whom I believe is an elite fantasy closer the rest of the way. On the other hand, Tyler Wells and A.J. Puk have seen their fantasy values take a bit of a hit. Let’s take a look at some of the notable hit streaks and current trends across Major League Baseball, as well as fantasy baseball risers and fallers.

AVG			OBP			SLG
1	Luis Arraez	.376	1	Juan Soto	.424	1	Shohei Ohtani	.683
2	Ronald Acuna Jr.	.338	2	Luis Arraez	.422	2	Matt Olson	.597
T2	Freddie Freeman	.338	T2	Ronald Acuna Jr.	.422	3	Freddie Freeman	.593
4	Bo Bichette	.321	4	Freddie Freeman	.415	4	Ronald Acuna Jr.	.587
5	Yandy Diaz	.313	5	Shohei Ohtani	.413	5	Mookie Betts	.575
xBA			xwOBA			Hard Hit%
1	Ronald Acuna Jr.	.351	1	Aaron Judge	.488	1	Aaron Judge	63.6%
2	Corey Seager	.332	2	Ronald Acuna Jr.	.456	2	Matt Chapman	59.5%
3	Freddie Freeman	.327	3	Shohei Ohtani	.441	3	Matt Olson	58.2%
4	Bo Bichette	.321	4	Corey Seager	.440	4	Juan Soto	57.8%
T4	Luis Arraez	.321	5	Yordan Alvarez	.428	T5	C. Seager/R. Acuna Jr.	57.3%

Hit Streaks
Streak	Player	AB	R	Hits	HR	RBI	BB	K	AVG/OBP/SLG
14	C.J. Cron	56	10	17	4	12	4	13	.304/.361/.554
11	Mookie Betts	43	13	14	2	5	8	6	.326/.442/.581
10	Ha-Seong Kim	34	9	16	3	7	9	2	.471/.581/.765
10	Ryan Jeffers	34	7	13	2	7	6	11	.382/.488/.588
9	Shohei Ohtani	28	8	14	4	5	9	9	.500/.641/1.000
9	Austin Riley	36	6	12	4	7	3	8	.333/.385/.722
9	Adolis Garcia	33	6	11	4	8	4	10	.333/.405/.727
8	Juan Soto	33	6	14	5	11	5	9	.424/.500/.909
8	Bryan Reynolds	34	7	14	3	5	0	8	.412/.429/.706
8	Yordan Alvarez	29	7	12	3	5	4	4	.414/.500/.793
8	Maikel Garcia	32	6	11	0	7	2	2	.344/.351/.469

Fantasy Baseball Risers

Steven Matz, St. Louis Cardinals

As much as Matz would often be treated as a free square for opposing offenses for much of the season, the same can’t be said here of late. In five starts in July, he posted a 27:5 K/BB ratio across 26.2 innings of work, alongside a 1.69 BB/9, 1.69 ERA, and 2.78 FIP. Sure, a .229 BABIP won’t hurt, but he’s dropped the usage on his curveball, and has primarily relied on his sinker and changeup of late. His changeup has induced a 29.6 percent whiff rate this season, and the increasing usage with this pitch is key, and the results speak for itself.

He actually gets a nice start today (8/5) against Colorado, a team that has been putrid against left-handed pitching all season, especially away from Coors Field.

Andres Munoz, Seattle Mariners

At the MLB Trade Deadline, the Mariners sent Paul Sewald to the Arizona Diamondbacks, opening the door for Munoz to step into the closer role. He earned saves on August 2 and August 3, striking out five of the six batters he’s faced. Munoz has a 36.1 percent strikeout rate this season, and while his walk rate is in the double-digits, which isn’t ideal, he generates a ton of ground balls, so a spare walk here and there shouldn’t hurt him. The Mariners still have enough juice to win games, putting Munoz in a very lucrative spot for fantasy purposes down the stretch. At the end of the day, he sports a 99th percentile fastball velocity and a slider that has posted a 50+ percent whiff rate each of the last two seasons. Potential elite closer here, ladies and gentlemen.

Honorable Mention: Giovanny Gallegos, Brooks Raley, Tanner Scott, Lars Nootbaar, Luis Rengifo, James Outman, Michael Massey, Brady Singer, Aaron Civale

Fantasy Baseball Fallers

Tyler Wells, Baltimore Orioles

Being optioned to Triple-A was just the icing on the cake here as leading up to the demotion, he had been struggling. In his final three starts prior to being optioned to Triple-A, he didn’t make it out of three innings in two of those three starts, posting an 11.00 ERA, 4.00 HR/9, 17.9 percent barrel rate, and 46.4 percent hard hit rate. Additionally, over his last couple of starts, the velocity dropped and once you realize that this is the most innings he’s thrown in a season since 2018 (119.1 IP in A+ and AA), the picture is becoming more clear…

Wells will likely rejoin the team at some point, but temper expectations when that time comes.

A.J. Puk, Miami Marlins

Puk has 15 saves on the year and a 30.8 percent strikeout rate, which all things considered are good for fantasy managers. However, despite a 3.17 xERA and 3.46 FIP, he has a 4.75 ERA on the season, as his HR/9 mark sits at 1.50, and his BABIP at .337. Puk’s last recorded save was July 8th against Philadelphia, and since that outing, while he has an exceptional 13 strikeouts across seven innings of work, he has a 7.71 ERA and 5.14 BB/9. Furthermore, the team acquired David Robertson at the MLB Trade Deadline, adding to the competition for saves in Miami. Robertson seems to have the leg up on Puk for save chances the rest of the way, and if Robertson falters, the team could look to Tanner Scott, who has a 2.13 ERA with seven holds since July 1.

Honorable Mention: George Springer, Trea Turner, Willy Adames, Andres Gimenez, Luis Severino, Mitch Keller, Yu Darvish, Emmet Sheehan

Statistical Credits:
baseballsavant.mlb.com
fangraphs.com
baseballmusings.com