MLB Streaks and Trends, Risers and Fallers Week 18: Andres Munoz Is Elite Fantasy Option After MLB Trade Deadline
From today until the end of the Major League Baseball season, Saturday is for looking at the various streaks and trends across the MLB, as well as those fantasy baseball players with rising or falling stock. Who should be your priority waiver wire pickups? Who deserves some of your precious FAAB? Are there any potential fantasy baseball buy-low trade candidates? As always, we’ll start by talking about some fantasy baseball risers and fallers, highlighted by Steven Matz and Andres Munoz, the latter of whom I believe is an elite fantasy closer the rest of the way. On the other hand, Tyler Wells and A.J. Puk have seen their fantasy values take a bit of a hit. Let’s take a look at some of the notable hit streaks and current trends across Major League Baseball, as well as fantasy baseball risers and fallers.
| AVG | OBP | SLG | ||||||
| 1 | Luis Arraez | .376 | 1 | Juan Soto | .424 | 1 | Shohei Ohtani | .683 |
| 2 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | .338 | 2 | Luis Arraez | .422 | 2 | Matt Olson | .597 |
| T2 | Freddie Freeman | .338 | T2 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | .422 | 3 | Freddie Freeman | .593 |
| 4 | Bo Bichette | .321 | 4 | Freddie Freeman | .415 | 4 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | .587 |
| 5 | Yandy Diaz | .313 | 5 | Shohei Ohtani | .413 | 5 | Mookie Betts | .575 |
| xBA | xwOBA | Hard Hit% | ||||||
| 1 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | .351 | 1 | Aaron Judge | .488 | 1 | Aaron Judge | 63.6% |
| 2 | Corey Seager | .332 | 2 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | .456 | 2 | Matt Chapman | 59.5% |
| 3 | Freddie Freeman | .327 | 3 | Shohei Ohtani | .441 | 3 | Matt Olson | 58.2% |
| 4 | Bo Bichette | .321 | 4 | Corey Seager | .440 | 4 | Juan Soto | 57.8% |
| T4 | Luis Arraez | .321 | 5 | Yordan Alvarez | .428 | T5 | C. Seager/R. Acuna Jr. | 57.3% |
| Hit Streaks | |||||||||
| Streak | Player | AB | R | Hits | HR | RBI | BB | K | AVG/OBP/SLG |
| 14 | C.J. Cron | 56 | 10 | 17 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 13 | .304/.361/.554 |
| 11 | Mookie Betts | 43 | 13 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | .326/.442/.581 |
| 10 | Ha-Seong Kim | 34 | 9 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 2 | .471/.581/.765 |
| 10 | Ryan Jeffers | 34 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 11 | .382/.488/.588 |
| 9 | Shohei Ohtani | 28 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 9 | .500/.641/1.000 |
| 9 | Austin Riley | 36 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 8 | .333/.385/.722 |
| 9 | Adolis Garcia | 33 | 6 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 10 | .333/.405/.727 |
| 8 | Juan Soto | 33 | 6 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 9 | .424/.500/.909 |
| 8 | Bryan Reynolds | 34 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 8 | .412/.429/.706 |
| 8 | Yordan Alvarez | 29 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | .414/.500/.793 |
| 8 | Maikel Garcia | 32 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | .344/.351/.469 |
Fantasy Baseball Risers
Steven Matz, St. Louis Cardinals
As much as Matz would often be treated as a free square for opposing offenses for much of the season, the same can’t be said here of late. In five starts in July, he posted a 27:5 K/BB ratio across 26.2 innings of work, alongside a 1.69 BB/9, 1.69 ERA, and 2.78 FIP. Sure, a .229 BABIP won’t hurt, but he’s dropped the usage on his curveball, and has primarily relied on his sinker and changeup of late. His changeup has induced a 29.6 percent whiff rate this season, and the increasing usage with this pitch is key, and the results speak for itself.
He actually gets a nice start today (8/5) against Colorado, a team that has been putrid against left-handed pitching all season, especially away from Coors Field.
Andres Munoz, Seattle Mariners
At the MLB Trade Deadline, the Mariners sent Paul Sewald to the Arizona Diamondbacks, opening the door for Munoz to step into the closer role. He earned saves on August 2 and August 3, striking out five of the six batters he’s faced. Munoz has a 36.1 percent strikeout rate this season, and while his walk rate is in the double-digits, which isn’t ideal, he generates a ton of ground balls, so a spare walk here and there shouldn’t hurt him. The Mariners still have enough juice to win games, putting Munoz in a very lucrative spot for fantasy purposes down the stretch. At the end of the day, he sports a 99th percentile fastball velocity and a slider that has posted a 50+ percent whiff rate each of the last two seasons. Potential elite closer here, ladies and gentlemen.
Honorable Mention: Giovanny Gallegos, Brooks Raley, Tanner Scott, Lars Nootbaar, Luis Rengifo, James Outman, Michael Massey, Brady Singer, Aaron Civale
Fantasy Baseball Fallers
Tyler Wells, Baltimore Orioles
Being optioned to Triple-A was just the icing on the cake here as leading up to the demotion, he had been struggling. In his final three starts prior to being optioned to Triple-A, he didn’t make it out of three innings in two of those three starts, posting an 11.00 ERA, 4.00 HR/9, 17.9 percent barrel rate, and 46.4 percent hard hit rate. Additionally, over his last couple of starts, the velocity dropped and once you realize that this is the most innings he’s thrown in a season since 2018 (119.1 IP in A+ and AA), the picture is becoming more clear…
Wells will likely rejoin the team at some point, but temper expectations when that time comes.
A.J. Puk, Miami Marlins
Puk has 15 saves on the year and a 30.8 percent strikeout rate, which all things considered are good for fantasy managers. However, despite a 3.17 xERA and 3.46 FIP, he has a 4.75 ERA on the season, as his HR/9 mark sits at 1.50, and his BABIP at .337. Puk’s last recorded save was July 8th against Philadelphia, and since that outing, while he has an exceptional 13 strikeouts across seven innings of work, he has a 7.71 ERA and 5.14 BB/9. Furthermore, the team acquired David Robertson at the MLB Trade Deadline, adding to the competition for saves in Miami. Robertson seems to have the leg up on Puk for save chances the rest of the way, and if Robertson falters, the team could look to Tanner Scott, who has a 2.13 ERA with seven holds since July 1.
Honorable Mention: George Springer, Trea Turner, Willy Adames, Andres Gimenez, Luis Severino, Mitch Keller, Yu Darvish, Emmet Sheehan
Statistical Credits:
baseballsavant.mlb.com
fangraphs.com
baseballmusings.com
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Willson Contreras went 2-for-4 with a home run, three RBI, and two runs scored in a 9-1 win over the Reds on Wednesday in the second game of their double-header.
Contreras obliterated his home run at 110.2 mph and 421 feet. That was a nice welcome to the big leagues moment for Reds’ rookie starter Chase Petty. Overall, Contreras has done well to put an ugly start to the season behind him with an .824 OPS over his last 15 games and is currently riding a 13 game on-base streak. That is the Contreras we know and expected to see this season. It’s good to finally have him back.
Steven Matz allowed five hits and no runs with six strikeouts and no walks over four innings in a no-decision against the Reds on Wednesday.
Matz was impressive again working as a starter. He last started a game two weeks ago and similarly worked his way to around 70 pitches, then he hopped back in the bullpen for a couple appearances, and filled in nicely here when the Cardinals needed an extra starter for their double-header. He had great command of his changeup against a right-handed heavy Reds’ lineup and forced 12 total swings-and-misses. While he’s thrived in this swing-man role, he would become at least mildly interesting if he returned to the rotation full-time.
Elly De La Cruz went 2-for-3 with a run scored on Wednesday against the Cardinals.
This game got out of hand quickly after Chase Petty coughed up nine runs in fewer than three innings in his major league debut. De La Cruz was still able to notch a few hits though and extend his hitting streak. While his full-season stat line doesn’t feel gaudy at the moment, he’s still on pace for 25 home runs, nearly 60 stolen bases, and 100 runs and RBI apiece.
Chase Petty allowed seven hits and nine runs with two walks and three strikeouts over 2 1/3 innings in a loss to the Cardinals on Wednesday.
This was a disastrous debut for Petty. His day started by allowing a walk, single, a sharp line drive for an out, and then a 420 foot home run by Willson Contreras. It didn’t get any easier for him after that as the Cardinals tacked on again in the second inning and finally chased him in the third. They clobbered three balls with at least a 110 mph exit velocity and seven of their 11 total balls in play were hard-hit. It also didn’t help Petty that Gavin Lux looked completely lost out in left field, but those are the breaks. He did manage to force 10 swings-and-misses in his short outing, it just wasn’t enough to slow the Cardinals’ lineup down in any way. Since he was promoted to start the second game of a double-header, it’s unknown whether he will get another turn in the rotation.
J.T. Realmuto hit a solo homer while going 2-for-4 with two runs scored in a win over the Nationals on Wednesday.
Realmuto had not homered since April 15, but the 34-year-old backstop took Eduardo Salazar deep to extend the Phillies lead to 7-2. He also singled to improve his slash to a still-shaky .237/.308/.361 over the first 30 games of the 2025 campaign. If not for the positional value, Realmuto would be unplayable. Because he’s a catcher, you can probably do worse. Weird how that works.
Max Kepler hit a solo homer in a win over the Nationals on Wednesday.