MLB DFS Playbook July 3: Top Plays for DraftKings and FanDuel
Published: Jul 03, 2023
Hello and welcome to the MLB DFS Playbook for July 3! We have a small 6-game slate on both DK and FD on our hands today. We have a 7:05 pm ET start time, so you have plenty of time to get those lineups made! Make sure to check out all of our amazing MLB DFS tools as they are always worth going through before building your lineups as are the Vegas Odds. However, as I am sure you have figured out by now, the new playbook will be a one-stop shop that includes everything from easy-to-read player write-ups and suggestions to MLB Weather Reports to lineup construction tips to our best value plays for DraftKings and FanDuel. You will be given core plays around which to build your lineups, DFS stacks to consider for GPP tournaments and key statistics to help you in your DFS research. Let’s dive in!
MLB DFS Playbook July 3
MLB Weather Updates
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals (possible rain)
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles (possible rain)
Games that appear to have a decent wind blowing out:
None.
Games that appear to have a decent wind blowing in:
None.
DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts
Small slates can be tough to build lineups with. You have a limited number of options to choose from and a lot of players are going to see high exposure percentages, so you have to try and differentiate from the field, while at the same time not having many ways to do that. As for this particular slate, Joe Ryan and Blake Snell are the headliners on the mound and the Minnesota Twins are the only team with an implied run total north of 5.00. Let’s dive into all of it!
Recommended DFS Starting Pitchers
Top Options for Strikeouts
Best Odds for a Win
Joe Ryan (Minnesota Twins -232)
Blake Snell (San Diego Padres -179)
Bryce Elder (Atlanta Braves -153)
Favorite Starters to Use for DFS Lineups
Ryan has been very up and down lately and it makes it a bit tough to fully trust him, but h eis the top arm on the board and does have a good matchup against the Royals. He’s also been great at home this year, posting a 2.70 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and 26 dk ppg average, compared to 4.14, 1.14, and 16.8 on the road, respectively.
Snell has been insane lately, scoring 30.5, 36, 37.9, 37.7, and 26.5 dk points over his last five starts while striking out 8, 12, 12, 11, and 10 batters in that timeframe. That is ELITE production. He does have a tougher matchup today though as the Angels produce well against southpaws. He also has over a full run higher ERA at home this season, so there are some risks, but he’s worth the gamble.
Woo has quickly become a favorite of mine and he has looked impressive lately, scoring at least 17.5 dk points in four straight starts while posting 7, 9, 5, and 7 Ks in that span. The Giants aren’t a super easy matchup, but it’s a pitchers park and Woo has flashed a lot of upside. He is also very cheap, which makes him super intriguing today.
Recommended DFS Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
5.02 – Minnesota Twins
4.95 – Atlanta Braves
4.65 – Baltimore Orioles
Favorite Hitters to Use for DFS Lineups
Matt Olson, 1B, Atlanta Braves
I don’t care who Olson is facing right now, this guy is going bananas. He is hitting .381 with a 1.446 OPS over his last 10 games with SEVEN home runs and 29(!) total R/RBI in that span. He is averaging 17.4 dk points per game in that timeframe. INSANE. The crazy part is that’s not even the highest on his own team right now, but we’ll get to that shortly.
Andres Gimenez, 2B, Cleveland Guardians
Gimenez had a monster game yesterday, scoring 32 dk points, by going 2-3 with a home run and a stolen base. It was his second straight game with a steal and second straight game with double-digit dk points. He is averaging a rock solid 9.5 dk ppg over his last 10 games with a .263 average in that timeframe. I’ll take my chances against Elder with him on this small slate.
Carlos Correa, SS, Minnesota Twins
Correa has had a rough year, but he still has 11 home runs and 64 total R/RBI across 74 games. Tonight he faces Austin Cox, who looked rough in his last start, giving up four hits, four walks, a home run, and four runs across just 3.2 innings of work. At a mid-tier price, I have no issue taking a shot on Correa and hoping for a long ball.
Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, Atlanta Braves
Much like Olson, I also do not care who Acuna is facing right now. He is hitting .410 with a 1.449 OPS over his last 10 games with SIX home runs, EIGHT stolen bases, and 21 total R/RBI. He is averaging 19.2 dk points per game in that span. Are you kidding me?? Crazy. He has scored double-digit fantasy points in ELEVEN STRAIGHT games. There is just no way you can fade these guys right now when they are winning slates daily.
Henry Davis, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Davis has been hot, hitting .361 with an .882 OPS over his last 10 games, averaging a rock solid 8.6 dk ppg in that span. We have to find some value if we want to jam guys like Acuna and Olson into our lineup, and Davis provides that at a near minimum price. He gets to face Michael Grove, who has been a dumpster fire this season. (Completely different matchup, but I would also look at Trent Grisham as a cheap, hot hitting value bat).
Player Pool
| $ Tier | SP | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High |  Joe Ryan  $10,000 |  Sean Murphy $5,400 | Matt Olson $6,400 | Ozzie Albies $5,900 |  José Ramírez $5,700 |  Mookie Betts $6,300 | Ronald Acuña $6,600 |
 Logan Webb $9,200 | Freddie Freeman $6,100 |  Fernando Tatis $6,200 | |||||
| Medium | Blake Snell $8,600 |  Gary Sánchez $3,900 |  Hunter Renfroe $4,600 |  Ha-Seong Kim $4,300 | Gunnar Henderson $4,700 | Carlos Correa $4,500 |  Andrew McCutchen $4,200 |
 Andrés Giménez $4,000 | Jarred Kelenic $4,200 | ||||||
| Harrison Bader $3,700 | |||||||
| Low |  Domingo Germán $7,200 | Bo Naylor $2,600 |  Anthony Rizzo $3,800 | Eduardo Escobar $3,200 |  Anthony Rendon $3,300 | Anthony Volpe $3,300 | Jack Suwinski $3,300 |
 Bryan Woo $6,600 | Nick Gonzales $2,000 | Jose Miranda $3,000 | José Caballero $2,600 | Trent Grisham $2,600 | |||
| Henry Davis $2,500 |
Stacks
| Braves | Sean Murphy | Matt Olson | Ronald Acuña |
| DraftKings | 5400 | 6400 | 6600 |
 Fanduel | - | - | - |
| Pirates | Jack Suwinski | Andrew McCutchen | Henry Davis | Nick Gonzales |
| DraftKings | 3300 | 4200 | 2500 | 2000 |
| Fanduel | - | - | - | - |
| Twins | Jose Miranda | Carlos Correa | Byron Buxton |
| DraftKings | 3000 | 4500 | 5200 |
| Fanduel | - | - | - |
| Angels | Eduardo Escobar | Brandon Drury | Anthony Rendon | Hunter Renfroe |
| DraftKings | 3200 | 4900 | 3300 | 4600 |
| Fanduel | - | - | - | - |
Player News
Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told reporters that Zach Eflin (lat) is likely to return and start Sunday against the Angels
It was assumed that Eflin would be back this weekend, but now we have a concrete date. The 31-year-old may not be at full strength after throwing fewer than 60 pitches in his rehab start, but the Orioles feel confident enough to have the right-hander back on the bump for the series finale against the Angels.
Riley Greene is not in the lineup for the first game of a doubleheader against the Rockies on Thursday.
Greene will get a break and likely return to the lineup for the second game of the twin-billing. Zach McKinstry will get the start in left field while Greene rests.
Yu Darvish (elbow) is facing live hitters on Thursday.
Darvish has been throwing bullpen sessions and traveled to the team’s complex in Arizona to face live hitters on Thursday. It will be his first time facing live batters since a spring training appearance on March 13th. He will likely need a few sessions like this before the Padres can map out a rehab appearance timeline for him.
Adael Amador is starting at second base and batting ninth for the Rockies on Thursday.
Amador has now started three of the last four games at second base for the Rockies. He’s gone just 7-for-43 this season with 15 strikeouts in 16 games. He’s just 22 years old, so there is plenty of time for him to adjust to the MLB level, but he doesn’t need to be on redraft radars right now.
Jackson Holliday is playing second base and batting second for the Orioles on Thursday against the Twins.
With Cedric Mullins sitting out on Thursday, Gunnar Henderson will bat lead off, and Holliday will jump up from sixth in the order to second. Holliday is riding a hot streak right now, and the Orioles are taking advantage. This is likely just a one-game sample with no Mullins or Adley Rutschman in the lineup, but Rutschman has been struggling, so perhaps it could become a more permanent spot in the lineup for Holliday moving forward.
Endy Rodriguez (finger) had his splint removed this week.
Rodriguez suffered a lacerated right index finger on April 14th. Now that he is out of his splint, he “is playing catch and doing a slightly modified swing.” Once he can progress to taking full swings, we’ll have a better sense of the timeline for his return.