MLB DFS Picks, Projections, Lineups & Stacks Today: Thursday Playbook

Although the Braves-Mets game is postponed, there's still a three-game slate tonight. 

I'll break down the best MLB DFS picks and provide plenty of MLB DFS projections so you can profit from DraftKings and FanDuel.

Here's the playbook for September 26 in the MLB. 

MLB September Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, September 26th

MLB Weather Today, 9/26

• New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves

POSTPONED

• Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees

There could be a few scattered showers throughout this game. However, it's more likely we'll get a dry nine innings. There's no need to pivot from this game. 

MLB DFS Optimizer & Lineup Generator Today

With only three games, there's not a ton of flexibility. But I managed to include Corbin Burnes (one of my favorite MLB DFS picks) along with Manny Machado, Carlos Correa, Mookie Betts, and other players I mentioned below who have good matchups. 

Take a look below. 

This mock DraftKings lineup was made with help from many MLB DFS projections.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Starting Pitchers

Top Options For Strikeouts

• Gerrit Cole (6.5, -120) vs. Baltimore Orioles
• Corbin Burnes (5.5, -130) vs. New York Yankees
• Joe Musgrove (5.5, -110) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Best Odds For A Win

• Joe Musgrove (+165) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Note: There are no win odds for Yankees-Orioles due to potential rain.

MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Pitchers
Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees

Gerrit Cole has struck out 26.9% of batters over the last 30 days. The right-hander has also limited teams to a .100 ISO and wOBA of .239 over the previous month and has held teams to a 6.4% barrel percentage. 

Cole has even held walks to 5% over the last 30 days and has added 23.4% of whiffs. 

He doesn't have the best matchup. But with three games on the slate, he's the best ace available. 

The Orioles have only collectively hit a .177 ISO and wOBA of .301 over the last 30 days against righties. The squad doesn't strike out at a high rate against righties and has walked 8.6% of the time. Yet, Cole should still get through six innings as long as the rain doesn't interrupt. 

As of now, it looks like the rain won't hit Yankee Stadium during the game. 

Corbin Burnes, Baltimore Orioles

Again, this isn't the best matchup for Burnes. But with a limited slate, Burnes is a really good option. 

Burnes has only struck out 22% of batters over the last month. However, he's also held his previous 118 hitters to a .092 ISO and wOBA of .251. In addition, he's added 47.6% of ground balls and has allowed just 31% of hard contact over the last month. 

In the last month, he'll battle a Yankees lineup with a .155 ISO and wOBA of .306 against righties. New York has also struck out more than 25% of the time against righties and has walked just 8.7% of the time over the last 30 days. 

I wouldn't recommend playing Cole and Burnes at the same time. However, Burnes is one of the better MLB DFS picks since his salary is lower and the Yankees' batting numbers are weaker. 

David Festa, Minnesota Twins

If you're looking for a low-tier play, I'd ride David Fetsa against the Marlins. 

Honestly, the Marlins haven't been bad offensively. They've added a .348 wOBA over the last 30 days with the projected lineup. 

Still, Festa has managed to hold his last 99 batters to a .128 ISO and wOBA of .289. He's also struck out more than 28% of batters and legitimately has the potential to earn more strikeouts than Cole or Burnes tonight. 

Furthermore, Festa has limited barrel percentages to 5.1% and has added 12.4% of swinging strikes. He's also kept fly balls below 26%. 

The MLB DFS projections really like Festa with this matchup against the Marlins. I'd look to pair him with either Cole or Burnes on DraftKings. 

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Hitters

Highest Expected Run Totals 

• Minnesota Twins (5.5, +114) vs. Miami Marlins
• New York Yankees (4.5, +105) vs. Baltimore Orioles

MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Hitters

Twins Stack

Look - the Minnesota Twins have shown absolutely no power over the last 30 days against righties. 

But that could change tonight. 

They're facing Valente Bellozo of the Marlins, who has allowed a .232 ISO and wOBA of .342 to his first 272 batters this season. Over the last 30 days, Bellozo has also allowed a .283 ISO and woBA of .368 to 114 batters. 

Bellozo is good at limiting walks and line drives. But he's allowed a 12.8% barrel percentage over the last 30 days and has earned just 8.1% of swinging strikes. In addition, he's struck out 12.3% of batters over the previous month. 

If nothing else, the Twins will at least put the ball in play. 

You might not get that if you try and stack hitters against Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes, David Festa, Walker Buehler, and Joe Musgrove. 

Let's ignore the ISO numbers tonight and go down the list of Twins hitters you must consider. These are numbers over the last 30 days against righties. 

• Edouard Julien: 31.2% LD (Line Drive)
• Carlos Correa: 11.1% K rate, 30% LD
• Trevor Larnach: 15.1% BB, 26.2% LD, 54.8% HC (Hard Contact)
• Byron Buxton: 27.3% GB (Ground Ball), 40.9% LD, 54.5% HC
• Willi Castro: 37.5% LD, 47.9 HC
• Ryan Jeffers: 30.6% FB, 27.8% LD, 41.7% HC

We'll just have to trust that these guys will show more power than usual against Bellozo. 

Mookie Betts, OF, Shohei Ohtani, OF, Teoscar Hernandez, Freddie Freeman, 1B. OF, Miguel Rojas SS, Los Angeles Dodgers

There are good reasons to bet against Joe Musgrove tonight. 

Musgrove is a right-handed pitcher who has watched 216 righties hit a .211 ISO and wOBA of .351 this year. Over the last 30 days, he's also allowed a .222 ISO and wOBA of .348. He consistently allows hard contact to right-handed batters. 

Meanwhile, lefties have low ISO and wOBA numbers against Musgrove this year. But he's also allowed 38.7% of fly balls while inducing just 35.5% of ground balls against lefties over the last month. 

Musgrove has literally given up a 12.9% barrel percentage to lefties over the last month but has only given up a BABIP of .226. With those numbers, that BABIP should change drastically… and not in his favor. 

On the other hand, Mookie Betts has smashed a .320 ISO and wOBA of .386 with only 10% of strikeouts against righties. 

Shohei Ohtani has nailed a .500 ISO and wOBA of .535 against his last 68 righties. 

Teoscar Hernandez has also socked a .289 ISO and woBA of .415 over the last 30 days against righties. Freddie Freeman has launched a .191 ISO and wOBA of .361 with only 12.7% of strikeouts, and Miguel Rojas has contributed a .182 ISO and wOBA of .385 with just 9.8% of strikeouts. 
 

Fernando Tatis, OF, Jurickson Profar, OF, Manny Machado 3B, Jackson Merrill, OF, Luis Arraez, 1B, San Diego Padres

I also like the hitters on the Padres' side. 

They're facing veteran righty Walker Buehler, who just hasn't figured it out this year. He's faced 325 batters and has allowed a .232 ISO and wOBA of .382. He's been worse against lefties throughout the season but has struggled more against righties over the last 30 days. 

You'll want to attack with the four more consistent MLB DFS picks in the Padres lineup. 

Tatis has slugged a .313 ISO and wOBA of .395 against righties in the last month. Profar has hit a .192 ISO and wOBA of .377 with only 14.4% of strikeouts in that same time. 

Protecting him is Manny Machado, who has hit a .289 ISO and wOBA of .391, and behind him is Jackson Merrill, who has launched a .314 ISO and wOBA of .384 with just 14.7% of strikeouts against righties. 

Also, Luis Arraez has a .372 wOBA with just a 2.3% of strikeout rate against lefties. He likely won't hit for much power, but a three-hit day is always possible with him.

These five have some good MLB DFS projections for tonight's slate. 

Player Pool

• DraftKings
• FanDuel

$ Tier	SP	C	1B	2B	3B	SS	OF
High	Corbin Burnes $10,600	Will Smith $3,200	Freddie Freeman $3,600		Manny Machado $3,600	Gunnar Henderson $4,200	Shohei Ohtani $5,200
	Gerrit Cole $10,100						Aaron Judge $5,000
							Juan Soto $4,500
							Mookie Betts $4,100
							Fernando Tatis $3,800
							Anthony Santander $3,700
							Teoscar Hernández $3,500
							Jurickson Profar $3,500
Medium	David Festa $8,100	Ryan Jeffers $2,900		Connor Norby $3,100	Jordan Westburg $3,200	Carlos Correa $3,400	Jackson Merrill $3,300
							Byron Buxton $3,300
							Colton Cowser $3,100
							Cedric Mullins $3,000
							Trevor Larnach $3,000
Low			Luis Arraez $2,800	Willi Castro $2,800	Jake Burger $2,900	Miguel Rojas $2,800	Jasson Domínguez $2,900
			Jonah Bride $2,800	Edouard Julien $2,700	Ramón Urías $2,500		Jesús Sánchez $2,800
				Otto Lopez $2,700			Griffin Conine $2,500

Stacks

Twins	Ryan Jeffers	Trevor Larnach	Carlos Correa	Willi Castro	Byron Buxton	Edouard Julien
DraftKings	4000	2900	5100	3500	5000	3100
Fanduel	2900	3000	3400	2800	3300	2700

Dodgers	Mookie Betts	Teoscar Hernández	Shohei Ohtani	Miguel Rojas	Freddie Freeman
DraftKings	5800	4900	7300	3200	4800
Fanduel	4100	3500	5200	2800	3600

Padres	Manny Machado	Jackson Merrill	Jurickson Profar	Luis Arraez	Fernando Tatis
DraftKings	5300	4400	4000	3700	5600
Fanduel	3600	3300	3500	2800	3800