MLB DFS Picks, Projections, Lineups & Stacks Today: Thursday Playbook

Published: Sep 19, 2024
Although there are six games in the afternoon, we'll break down tonight's MLB slate.
I've added my favorite MLB DFS picks and looked at multiple MLB DFS projections to decide on my favorite plays for the September 19 DFS slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.
MLB September Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, September 19th
MLB Weather Today, 9/19
No weather concerns for tonight's 6-game slate.
MLB DFS Optimizer & Lineup Generator Today
Below, I added a DraftKings classic slate lineup. I went with Yusei Kikuchi and Brayan Bello as the starters and could still include my top value players like Pete Alonso and Jordan Walker, along with a couple of Brewers and Diamondbacks hitters.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Starting Pitchers
Top Options For Strikeouts
- Yusei Kikuchi (6.5, -125) vs. Los Angeles Angels
- Brayan Bello (5.5, -135) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
- Luis Severino (5.5, +100) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
- Brandon Pfaadt (5.5, +105) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Best Odds For A Win
- Yusei Kikuchi (-120) vs. Los Angeles Angels
- Brayan Bello (+135) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
- Luis Severino (+145) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Pitchers
Yusei Kikuchi, Houston Astros
Yusei Kikuchi has earned 27.3% of strikeouts against his last 99 batters. He's also held them to a .140 ISO and wOBA of .240 and has induced nearly 48% of ground balls. Kikuchi, a left-handed pitcher, has earned nearly 13% of swinging strikes and has only walked 5.1% of batters. He's also limited line drives to 16.4%.
He'll battle an Angels lineup that has hit just a .082 ISO and wOBA of .184 against lefties over the last 30 days. Kikuchi is a must-play in the classic main slate on FanDuel and DraftKings. The MLB DFS projections love him, and so do I.
Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox
Brayan Bello's strikeout rate has dipped over the last 30 days. But I've got a feeling it'll tick back up with a start against the Rays coming up. But while the strikeouts are down. Bello has held his last 122 batters to a .047 ISO and wOBA of .269. He's induced more than 54% of ground balls and has allowed fewer than 25% of fly balls.
He'll take on a Rays projected lineup that has hit a .299 wOBA over the last 30 days. That same lineup has also struck out 26.6% of the time and has walked only 4.7% against righties in the previous 30 days. Bello will still produce low-quality contact but should add more strikeouts tonight. He's one of the best MLB DFS picks on the slate if you want value.
Jose Suarez, Los Angeles Angels
Jose Suarez has added 36% of strikeouts against his last 25 batters as a left-handed pitcher. He's also limited walks to 4% and has held his last 25 batters to a .000 ISO and wOBA of .206. These stats are too good not to consider. His MLB DFS projections are low because he's only making his second season start. But this is no longer a spot start, and he's not pitching just one inning.
The Angels would love five innings out of Suarez. Meanwhile, he'll take on an Astros projected lineup that has only hit a .159 ISO against lefties over the last 30 days. If Suarez can keep the power down, he'll likely be able to wiggle out of trouble, if he even gets in any. After all, the Astros have five batters with an ISO of .056 or worse and five batters with a wOBA of .292 or worse against lefties. Suarez isn't the worst MLB DFS picks you can make tonight.
MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
- Houston Astros (5.5, -114) vs. Los Angeles Angels
- Chicago Cubs (4.5, -120) vs. Washington Nationals
- St. Louis Cardinals (4.5, +105) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Hitters
Milwaukee Brewers Batters 2-5
The Milwaukee Brewers have four batters hitting consistently against right-handed pitchers. That's good news, especially with a matchup against Brandon Pfaadt tonight. Pffadt is a right-handed thrower for the Diamondbacks, who has allowed a .195 ISO and wOBA of .452 to his last 89 batters.
Pfaadt has also allowed 48.3% of hard contact, over 29% of fly balls, and nearly 26% of line drives. Pfaadt has ultimately struggled against both sides of the plate. Check what these four Brewers bats have done against righties over the last 30 days:
- Jackson Chourio: .347 ISO and .439 wOBA
- WIlliam Contreras: .167 ISO and .374 wOBA
- Garrett Mitchell: .345 ISO and .404 wOBA
- Willy Adames: .351 ISO and .423 wOBA
Corbin Carroll, OF, Christian Walker, 1B, Pavin Smith, OF, Eugenio Suarez, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks
I'm also liking the Diamondbacks for many MLB DFS picks tonight. The Brewers will use Tobias Myers on the mound tonight. He's a right-handed pitcher who has allowed a .190 ISO and a wOBA of .346 to his last 117 batters. Additionally, Myers has allowed 52.6% of hard contact and has given up nearly 31% of fly balls, with more than 28% of line drives to those batters.
While his strikeout rate remains high, Arizona's projected lineup has only struck out 19.8% of the time against righties in the last 30 days. But Myers isn't earning strikeouts, he allows some super hard contact, including a 10.3% barrel percentage in the previous 30 days. Therefore, you'll want to consider four Diamondbacks for your MLB DFS plays. Over the last 30 days against righties:
- Corbin Carroll: .290 ISO and .389 wOBA
- Christian Walker: .500 ISO and .491 wOBA
- Pavin Smith: .405 ISO and .487 wOBA
- Eugenio Suarez: .292 ISO and .392 wOBA
That's another stack to consider for tonight's MLB DFS plays.
Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets
Someone had to step up with Francisco Lindor out. It's been Pete Alonso. Alonso has socked a .282 ISO and wOBA of .374 against his last 83 righties. Plus, he's hit 73.3% of hard contact when he connects with a 24.4% barrel percentage against righties. He's even hit 35.6% of fly balls and only 35.6% of ground balls over the last 30 days against righties.
Tonight, he'll compete against former teammate Taijuan Walker. Walker is a righty who has only struck out 4.2% of his last 48 righties. Instead, Walker has allowed a .370 ISO and wOBA of .559 to those righties, along with 52.3% of hard contact and a 13.6% barrel percentage. Alonso could absolutely go yard tonight.
Jordan Walker, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Over the last month, Jordan Walker has crushed a .262 ISO and wOBA of .334 against his last 46 righties. Lucky for him, he'll face Luis L. Ortiz, who is a right-handed pitcher struggling against righties. Ortiz has allowed a .281 ISO and wOBA of .392 against his last 38 righties.
He's also allowed 39.1% of fly balls and 39.1% of line drives while inducing just 21.7% of ground balls against righties in the last 30 days. Beyond that, he's given up a 21.7% barrel percentage and has added only 7.8% of swinging strikes against righties. Jordan Walker has crushed 56% of hard contact and has added a 16% barrel percentage against righties. He's another one of our top MLB DFS picks for the night.
Player Pool
$ Tier | SP | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF |
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Stacks
Brewers | Garrett Mitchell | William Contreras | Willy Adames | Jackson Chourio |
![]() | 3200 | 4800 | 4600 | 4400 |
![]() | 2500 | 3400 | 3600 | 3500 |
Diamondbacks | Pavin Smith | Eugenio Suárez | Corbin Carroll | Christian Walker |
![]() | 3000 | 4700 | 5300 | 5100 |
![]() | 2800 | 3600 | 3800 | 3600 |
Phillies | Kyle Schwarber | Brandon Marsh | Bryce Harper |
![]() | 6300 | 3800 | 5700 |
![]() | 3900 | 2900 | 3800 |
Player News
Shota Imanaga was removed from Tuesday’s start against the Pirates with leg cramps.
Imanaga appeared to be in some obvious discomfort after giving up a leadoff double to Andrew McCutchen in the sixth inning and departed with a trainer following a visit from Cubs manager Craig Counsell. The 31-year-old lefty struck out three over five shutout innings to open the contest. It sounds like his early exit was merely out of an abundance of caution. He should be able to make his next scheduled start on Sunday against the Brewers.
Diamondbacks SS prospect Jordan Lawlar went 2-for-3 with a solo homer and two RBI on Tuesday for Triple-A Reno.
Lawlar continues adding extra defensive versatility to his profile, spending time at both second and third base in recent weeks, and appears to be on the precipice of making it back to the big leagues. The 22-year-old projects as a potential five-category impact fantasy contributor thanks to his power/speed combination. He’s hitting .364 (39-for-107) with 20 extra-base hits — six home runs — and 12 stolen bases through 27 games this season for Triple-A Reno. It’s time.
Twins OF prospect Walker Jenkins (ankle) received a cortisone injection and isn’t expected to return to minor league game action until June.
Jenkins has dealt with an array of physical issues since being selected fifth overall in the 2023 MLB Draft. The immense talent and upside is undeniable, but he’s struggled to stay on the field at times. The 20-year-old top prospect isn’t expected to return to game action at Double-A Wichita until early June after receiving an injection to address lingering ankle soreness. He’s a top-10 prospect for dynasty purposes, but the lost development time is starting to become a minor concern.
Josh Lowe (oblique) took batting practice on Tuesday.
Lowe took on-field batting practice off a pitching machine for the first time since suffering a Grade 2 right oblique strain back on Opening Day. He’s expected to progress to facing live pitching on Friday and could potentially kick of a minor league rehab assignment this weekend in the Rookie-level Florida Complex League. The 27-year-old fantasy standout is likely to require a couple weeks of game action to get back up to speed, but it sounds like he could potentially return by mid-May, barring any setbacks.
Giants signed OF Cal Mitchell to a minor league contract.
It didn’t take Mitchell long to find a new home. The 26-year-old outfielder latches on with the Giants just a couple days after being cut loose by the White Sox. He was hitting .111 (3-for-27) in 10 games at the Triple-A level this season.
Mariners signed RHP Bryan Shaw to a minor league contract.
Shaw fortifies Seattle’s relief depth at Triple-A Tacoma after failing to make the Reds’ season-opening roster in spring training. The 37-year-old journeyman righty has made a whopping 796 appearances in the big leagues dating back to 2011.