MLB DFS Picks & Playbook For Today’s Games: Sunday, August 18th
![Framber Valdez MLB DFS Aug 18](https://d29m18w01sxjzp.cloudfront.net/thumbnails/source/fatest/gettyimages-2164269007-594x594-1000x600.jpg)
Published: Aug 18, 2024
We've got a massive 10-game main slate to review today. Unfortunately, half of the matchups are at risk of being delayed or rained out.
I'll navigate through all of the weather to help provide the best DFS plays for today's main slate.
Make sure to check out today's MLB playbook below before you get your lineups in on DraftKings and FanDuel as we present our MLB DFS picks for today, August 18th!
MLB DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, August 18
MLB Weather Today, 8/18
While this game should start on time, there's a decent chance of a potential rain delay in the middle of the game. It's even possible that this game doesn't even go a full nine innings.
There will be scattered showers that could cause a delay in this game.
Most of the rain expected will likely come after this game is over.
More spotty showers with a low chance of a delay.
Another game with spotty showers in the area that could cause a delay. But it's more unlikely than other games.
MLB DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts
When creating your lineups, you'll want to ride with pitchers playing games that aren't in danger of being delayed.
Framber Valdez will pitch in Houston against the Chicago White Sox. That game won't have any rain issues, and Valdez has a ridiculously good matchup on paper.
Meanwhile, I wouldn't tip-toe nearly as much with hitters. It's likely most, if not all, games will at least finish. Make sure you have the right pitchers in your lineup before anything.
That said, I provided many hitters for Boston and Baltimore. You'll want to add some stacks in that game in your DFS lineups.
Recommended MLB DFS Starting Pitchers
Top Options For Strikeouts
- Framber Valdez (6.5, -150) vs. Chicago White Sox
- Tyler Mahle (5.5, -155) vs. Minnesota Twins
- Pablo Lopez (5.5, -150) vs. Texas Rangers
- Sonny Gray (5.5, -140) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
- George Kirby (5.5, -125) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- Brady Singer (5.5, -120) vs. Cincinnati Reds
- Merrill Kelly (5.5, -115) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Best Odds For A Win
- Framber Valdez (-145) vs. Chicago White Sox
- George Kirby (+110) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- Shota Imanaga (+115) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
- Pablo Lopez (+135) vs. Texas Rangers
- Brady Singer (+150) vs. Cincinnati Reds
- Colin Rea (+150) vs. Cleveland Guardians
Core MLB DFS Pitchers
Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs
The Cubs rookie lefty, Shota Imanaga, has added 26.8% of strikeouts over the last month. He's also walked just 2.4% of batters and has held his last 123 batters to a .305 wOBA.
Imanaga has been on and off this season, but right now, he's been really good. Over the last month, he's held teams to an 18.8% line drive rate and earned 15.4% of swinging strikes.
Today, he'll take on a Blue Jays lineup with four batters holding a .056 ISO or worse and six batters with a wOBA of no better than .288 against lefties over the last month.
Beyond that, the Blue Jays have collectively struck out 27.5% of the time against lefties over the last month. The lineup even has five batters with strikeout rates of at least 30.8% against lefties in the previous 30 days.
Imanaga should add a quality start with a high amount of strikeouts.
Framber Valdez, Houston Astros
The left-handed Framber Valdez has struck out 31.7% of batters over the last month. He's also held his previous 123 batters to a .125 ISO and wOBA of .224 with 51.4% of ground balls and 20.3% of line drives.
In addition, Valdez has added 15.5% of swinging strikes and has allowed just 8.1% of walks.
He should dominate against the Chicago White Sox today.
After all, the White Sox's projected lineup has hit a .044 ISO and wOBA of .199 against lefties over the last month.
With all the potential rain in the forecast, Valdez and the Astros are in the clear. He'll be the No. 1 guy on the slate and someone you'll want to start.
Pablo Lopez, Minnesota Twins
Pablo Lopez's strikeouts are down over the last month. He's only added 22.4% of strikeouts. However, he's still held his previous 125 batters to a .140 ISO and wOBA of .285 with nearly 50% of ground balls and just 4.8% of walks.
Lopez likely won't rack up strikeouts against the Rangers. But he should get a bunch of outs without allowing many hits or runs.
After all, the Rangers' lineup has hit a .160 ISO and wOBA of .292 against righties over the last month. The lineup has most hitters hitting a wOBA of no higher than .292 and only two batters with walk rates higher than 6.8% against righties.
I'd trust Lopez against the Rangers.
Tyler Mahle, Texas Rangers
I wouldn't recommend playing Tyler Mahle and Pablo Lopez, but I invite you to decide between them. Both should have good outings.
Since Mahle's return, he's thrown to 42 batters and has held them to a .028 ISO and wOBA of .261. He's thrown an average of 84 pitches per start and could probably get to 100 pitches if needed today.
In addition, Mahle has allowed just 14.3% of line drives and has held walks to 9.5%. Like Lopez, the strikeouts have been harder to come by. That said, the Twins have struck out 25.9% of the time against righties over the last month and will have six lefties in the lineup.
So far, Mahle has struck out 36.8% of lefties this season.
While Lopez is a great option, at a lower-tier cost, I'd likely consider Mahle over Lopez. Both are good options in a likely low-scoring game.
Recommended MLB DFS Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
- Houston Astros (5.5, +105) vs. Chicago White Sox
- Kansas City Royals (4.5, -135) vs. Cincinnati Reds
- Cincinnati Reds (4.5, -125) vs. Kansas City Royals
- Philadelphia Phillies (4.5, -140) vs. Washington Nationals
- Seattle Mariners (4.5, -115) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Core MLB DFS Hitters
Nick Castellanos, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
The Washington Nationals will pitch Jake Irvin today. Irvin is a right-handed pitcher who has allowed a .353 ISO and wOBA of .414 to his last 53 righties.
In addition, Irvin has given up 62.5% of hard contact and 30% of fly balls with 27.5% of line drives. He's also earned just 9.2% of swinging strikes over the last month against righties.
Meanwhile, Nick Castellanos has slugged a .167 ISO and wOBA of .332 with only 12.9% of strikeouts against righties over the last month. The right-hander outfielder has also launched nearly 30% of line drives and has added more than 40% of hard contact with a .303 BABIP.
Castellanos is a solid mid-tier option for today's slate.
Colton Cowser, OF, Anthony Santander, OF, Gunnar Henderson, SS, Jackson Holliday, 2B, Cedric Mullins, OF, Baltimore Orioles
You'll want to consider a majority of lefties in the Orioles lineup today.
Baltimore will face Kutter Crawford of the Red Sox. Crawford is a righty who has allowed a .520 ISO and wOBA of .511 to his last 55 lefties. Furthermore, he's struck out only 16.4% of lefties and has allowed 61% of hard contact to them. Beyond that, he's allowed 36.6% of fly balls and has induced just 34.1% of ground balls against lefties.
Now, look at what the Orioles lefties have done to right-handed pitching over the last month.
- Colton Cowser: .259 ISO, .401 wOBA
- Anthony Santander: .329 ISO, 392 wOBA
- Gunnar Henderson: .154 ISO, .348 wOBA
- Jackson Holliday: .318 ISO, .403 wOBA
- Cedric Mullins: .232 ISO, .396 wOBA
This stack will provide much power against Crawford, who has been notoriously bad at preventing home runs lately.
Jarren Duran, OF, Wilyer Abreu, OF, Rafael Devers, 3B, Masataka Yoshida, OF
We're staying in the same Orioles-Red Sox game. As you can probably tell, I expect plenty of runs in this Red Sox-Orioles game.
With the rain likely holding off until after the game, there's no reason to miss this matchup.
Albert Suarez will start for the Orioles. He's a righty who has allowed a .263 ISO and wOBA of .420 to his last 43 lefties. Those same 43 lefties have also hit 50% of hard contact and nearly 27% of line drives. Suarez has also struck out just 18.6% of lefties over the last 30 days.
Now, take a look at what these four Red Sox lefties have done to righties over the last month.
- Jarren Duran: .333 ISO, .443 wOBA
- Wilyer Abreu: .328 ISO, .434 wOBA
- Rafael Devers: .254 ISO, .385 wOBA
- Masataka Yoshida: .237 ISO, .459 wOBA
You won't be able to use all of these Orioles and Red Sox players. But I'd ensure you've got players on both teams in your DFS lineups.
Salvador Perez, C, Kansas City Royals
We've touched on nearly every position but not catcher.
The best catcher on today's slate is Salvador Perez. He's smashed a .474 ISO and wOBA of .574 against his last 20 lefties.
Today, he'll face Andrew Abbott of the Reds, who has already allowed a .256 ISO and wOBA of .403 to his last 100 righties.
Abbott has also given up 45.1% of hard contact and has struck out just 20% of batters. On the other hand, Perez has launched 35.7% of fly balls and 50% of hard contact, with a team-leading 21.4% barrel percentage against lefties over the last month.
Player Pool
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Stacks
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