Nothing starts a season off in style like turning a betting profit! This MLB best bets column on Opening Day was good to us as we nailed two of our three game predictions and two of our three prop bets. 

 

 

 

Betting the Los Angeles Dodgers on the run line will likely be good to us early in the season, but the books are going to catch up to that quickly. Same with Mookie Betts and his props, as I don’t see us getting his total bases at plus-odds too often. But we did well to identify a strong pitchers’ duel between Pablo Lopez and Cole Ragans as well as the Reds team total going over against a soft Nationals team. 

CJ Abrams, on the other hand, struggled in his season debut and who saw the Diamondbacks thumping anyone for 10 runs on Opening Day? Still, we walk away with profit and it’s time to continue building that early-season bankroll with more MLB best bets!

  • Yesterday’s Record: 4-2
  • Season Record: 4-2
  • Bankroll: +1.62 units

MLB Best Bets For Today: Friday, 3/29

Brewers vs. Mets Prediction Today, 3/29

We watched a number of starting pitchers stand out on Opening Day, showing us mid-season form you don’t normally see the first time out. But starters were efficient with their pitches and managers were letting them throw a little further than what we typically see. 

Freddy Peralta, a strong early favorite for the NL Cy Young, should deliver in similar fashion. There’s no concern over his spring ERA. We’re focused on the string strikeout rate, the favorable walk rate and Mets lineup that, outside of Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor, doesn’t exactly intimidate the opposition. 

On the other side is lefty Jose Quintana and while he’s flashed greatness at times in the past, we also know there’s a reason behind his overall mediocrity. His ERA may look decent over the past two seasons, but the K-rate has dramatically diminished, and his swinging-strike rate has as well. Pitching to more contact, as you’ve seen with his numbers in the past, is not a positive thing. 

But the Brewers struggled against left-handed pitching last year? They sure did. But look at this revamped righty-heavy lineup that now features players such as rookie Jackson Chourio, Rhys Hoskins and Gary Sanchez. In fact, today’s lineup has just one player, Christian Yelich, batting from the left side. We’ll back Peralta and the Brewers bats.

 

 

 

Yankees vs. Astros Prediction Today, 3/29

The Astros were in control of their Opening Day tilt with the Yankees until midway through the game when Framber Valdez’ control went awry, and the Yankees bats took advantage against their bullpen. Cristian Javier is looking to bounce back from a rough 2023 campaign and has looked strong throughout the spring. He just needs to pound the strike zone and really, just make it through Juan Soto and Aaron Judge with as few mistakes as possible. 

The bottom half of the lineup has some holes in it and Javier just needs to maintain a solid effort. He doesn’t need to be lights-out. He just needs to have that slider of his on-point. If he maintains his spring trajectory, he should be able to stifle the Yankees enough to give the bats time to work over Carlos Rodon.

Rodon is the key for the Yankees in this match-up and from how he looked throughout the spring, there is not a lot of confidence. This Astros lineup traditionally hits lefties well. Last season they posted the third-highest wOBA (.347) against southpaws and they did it with a .200 ISO. After taking a tough loss at home in Thursday’s game, I expect the Astros bats to shine even brighter against Rodon, who clearly is not the pitcher he was just two seasons ago.

 

 

 

Giants vs. Padres Prediction Today, 3/29

The NL West division rivals went toe-to-toe on Opening Day and plated a total of 10 runs with Logan Webb and Yu Darvish on the mound. Today, the Padres will see lefty upstart Kyle Harrison who, outside of one last tune-up, had a tremendous spring. 

However, there are a number of Padres who hit lefties well and last season, San Diego had the second-highest wOBA (.348) against southpaws and they weren’t shy about the power either. Look out for Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Ha-Seong Kim and even catcher Luis Campusano. All have traditionally hit lefties well.

But we don’t want to forget about the Giants bats, even though they lack the star-studded power of the Padres. Joe Musgrove struggled through the second half of last season and looked terrible throughout the spring. He’s pitching to more contact and he’s still giving up too many home runs. 

The Giants have some solid power throughout their lineup with Jorge Soler, Matt Chapman and Michael Conforto, so look for the table-setters to be aggressive early with Musgrove while the big bats clear the bases. It doesn’t matter who wins. This game total seems too low for me.

 

 

 

Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Friday, 3/29