Tiered Grid Drafting System

One of the most common errors made with respect to roster construction, and the ensuing analysis of a fantasy football roster is pigeon-holing the RB and WR positions into RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, etc.

Our mind likes to compartmentalize. It helps keep things organized. We see a certain running back and our initial thought is RB1. Someone mentions a particular wide receiver and we immediately associate WR3.

This is all well and good. This intuitive labeling isn’t the problem. In fact, as will be demonstrated, it will still come in handy. The real issue is feeling the need to force your roster to consist of QB, RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, WR3, TE, Flex, K and D/ST (or whatever your roster breakdown might be). The bottom line is you want points. Well, you want more points than your opponent. It doesn’t matter where they come from – points are points. And come Monday night, you want more of them than the person you’re playing. What follows is a means to construct your roster with maximizing points as the objective, not filling each roster spot with an RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, etc. The key is filling each spot with a set amount of points, regardless of position. As you move down your roster, you expect a descending number of points per roster spot.

Without getting too involved, in order for this to work you need a baseline understanding of replacement theory. Don’t worry, the math will take care of itself.

The crux of replacement theory is only the points above that of the worst active player at each position are useful. Everyone in the league gets credit for the points of the worst player at each position. They don’t help you. So even though a quarterback scores more raw fantasy points in most league set-ups, once the points from the last quarterback are accounted for, the adjusted points aren’t that much different than the adjusted points of a running back, wide receiver or tight end.

There are some that will actually project a player’s points, determine the replacement level for each position, adjust the points, rank using those points and call that their cheat sheet. On paper (or a computer monitor) that may seem clever if not ideal. But here’s the thing. It’s really not necessary. Replacement level is impossible to determine.

Sure, you can use your projections and roster composition to find what you think will be the worst active player on a roster, but football is a game of matchups. Adjusting points in this manner assumes one player occupies each active spot all season. But this isn’t practical. How many quarterbacks are matchup proof? Regardless of the size of the league, the back end of each active player pool is transient which means replacement level moves as well. As you might imagine, some advanced systems attempt to deal with this by setting replacement at say QB10 in a 12-team league, but even that is unnecessary.

You don’t need to do the math. Between injuries, emerging players and matchups, the intuitive natural breaks at each position are a perfectly acceptable means to delineate, hence tier each position. The assumption is after accounting for replacement, the top tier players at each position are all similarly valued. An RB1 is worth the same as a QB1, WR1 and TE. This is true all the way down the line.

Let’s use one of the more common league set-ups to illustrate this point: 1-QB, 2-RB, 3-WR, 1-TE, 1-Flex (RB/WR/TE), 1-D/ST and 1-K. Excluding the D/ST and K, there are eight lineup spots that need to be filled. The key is there is no need to target filling five with an RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2 and WR3.

The way to go about this is breaking each position pool into tiers, remembering everyone in each tier can be expected to produce similar points. Sure, you’ll set up a hierarchy but in practical terms, to reiterate (since this is the key) the first and last player in each tier is projected in a similar range. Your expected points are the same for everyone within each positional tier. Furthermore, this holds true across positions. That is, a Tier 2 QB is projected to score as many points as a Tier 2 RB, WR or TE.

The manner to implement the system is to look for natural breaks within each position and set up a grid with the following specifications:

• Each tier contains enough players to completely fill 2 rounds
• Ample tiers are set up to fill every active roster without D/ST and K
• There are sufficient players of each position in all the combined tiers to fill every active roster without D/ST and K

Since everyone values players differently and the inventory changes from year to year, there isn’t a one-size-fits-all system. By means of example, here is a typical grid. Your numbers may differ based on your expectations.

Let’s see if this meets the criteria. Each tier will cover exactly two rounds. There are 96 total players which is exactly enough to fill eight spots on twelve rosters. There are 12 QBs and 12 TEs, so that is perfect. There are 72 RBs+WRs with the minimum 24 RBs and 36 WRs included. The excess RBs and WRs fill the flex spots.

Truth be told, each tier doesn’t HAVE to fill two rounds. If the natural breaks better line up with one of three rounds, that’s fine. And in fact, if your league has an odd number of roster spots for these spots, it will be necessary for at least one to be odd.
For the ease of this discussion, a 12-team league was used as the model. This method is transferable to all formats with varying roster requirements.

Sometimes, the natural breaks are not going to align the grid perfectly. You’ll need to take some liberties at the fringes to make the numbers work, but that’s just fine. Chances are it’ll never come into play. You’ll almost always pick players from the middle to upper portion of your tiers solely based on differing player expectations and strategies. In fact, there’s a very good chance there are players left over from a better tier when you are slated to pick from the lower tier. In other words, using this grid as an example, there is an excellent chance you pick a Tier-2 player in round 5 and a Tier-3 player in round 7. So your roster in composed of two Tier-1, three Tier-2, two Tier-3 and only one Tier-4.

You know what’s coming next. The big picture strategy is to select a Tier-1 player with the first two picks, a Tier-2 player in rounds three and four, a pair of Tier-3 players in five and six with a couple of Tier-4 players in seven and eight. Obviously, this is adjusted based on your custom designed grid, but the idea is the same.

Something implied but not explicitly discussed is there does not have to be 12 RB1, 12 RB 2 etc. Let the natural drop-off within each position designate the label.

Keeping this in mind, let’s circle back to what was stated as a common error in roster construction, the need to draft an RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2 and WR3. If you trust the tier system, you can take any combination of players that fits the grid and end up with the same ballpark number of projected points. You can start with two Tier-1 wide receivers. You can take a Tier-1 quarterback then a Tier-1 tight end. On paper, it doesn’t matter.

Please realize this roadmap doesn’t encompass the myriad of factors that are part and parcel to draft strategy. All it does is illustrate that on paper, any combination of positions can result in a winning team. The best strategy keeps this backbone then melds all the other factors in. Elsewhere in this draft guide, you’ll read about the plusses and minuses of taking certain positions early while learning the advantages and disadvantages of waiting on others.

What you need to do is assimilate all that into a draft strategy that emphasizes your strengths while masking the weaknesses then do not pigeon hole your plan into preset position per round. The best drafters not only excel at player evaluation, they understand the nuances of draft dynamics. They can read a draft and adjust on the fly so they are taking as many players from a tier higher than “they should.”

Understanding that points are points and they count the same regardless of position is the key. Using the tiered grid is the way to get there.