Last week I solicited ideas for interesting tight end topics and two of my friends mentioned Charles Clay. Dennis listed him among guys like who should be better but always disappoint. Mehal mentioned Clay as a player who could have some upside after finishing the season strong. I figure any player who elicits diverging opinions from two smart people is worth examining a bit more closely, so here we are.
At first glance, both Dennis and Mehal are right. Dennis is right that Charles Clay has never been a consistent TE1 despite showing promising signs with two different teams over four years. Clay was seventh among tight ends in standard scoring in 2013, when he set career-highs with 16 games played, 69 receptions on 103 targets for 759 yards and six touchdowns. He hasn’t come particularly close to any of those numbers since.
In a lot of ways, 2016 could be considered a disappointment. Clay played in 15 games but finished with just 57 receptions on 87 targets for 552 yards and a career-low 9.7 yards per reception. Clay was sixth in the NFL in offensive snaps among tight ends in 2016 but finished 16th in PPR scoring. On a team in which Marquise Goodwin and Robert Woods were the only wide receivers to play more than 36 percent of offensive snaps, Clay never became anything more than an afterthought.
And yet, my buddy Mehal is right to point out Clay put up nice numbers in the fantasy playoffs. Clay scored all four of his touchdowns in Weeks 14-16, going for at least 52 receiving yards in all three games. Clay had eight receptions on 10 targets for 85 yards and two touchdowns in Week 16, all season-highs. If Clay could build on his strong finish, he would be a low-end TE1 despite not even getting drafted in a lot of fantasy leagues.
Towards that end, it is encouraging that Clay’s best statistical stretch came with Sammy Watkins on the field. It might have been disappointing Clay wasn’t more of a target monster with Watkins out, but perhaps Clay is be best served with Sammy Watkins drawing the defense’s attention.
After watching Charles Clay’s tape, I’m not sure I agree with Dennis’s assessment that Clay should be better than he is. Clay is a fine all-around tight end, but his only elite skill is his hands. After seeing the targets Clay got last season, I think he did well to put up a 66 percent catch rate. One of the best examples of this is on his touchdown catch in Week 15 against the Browns. With 40 seconds left in the second quarter, Clay winds up all alone in the end zone but the ball is severely underthrown. Clay adjusts to the ball and goes to the ground, getting his hands under the ball for a call that was easily upheld upon review.
A better quarterback might be able to take better advantage of Clay’s hands by getting him the ball in a tight window, but Tyrod Taylor is lucky to get the ball to Clay when he is open, which isn’t all too often. Clay isn’t particularly quick or fast. He can get away from a linebacker when he is matched up one-on-one, as demonstrated by his 26-yard catch against Bud Dupree at 5:28 of the third quarter in Week 14. The problem is it usually takes Clay too long to get open. The play against Dupree worked because Taylor got unusually good protection, but oftentimes Taylor was under duress before Clay even had a chance to get open.
Clay also isn’t particularly good in the end zone. Of his four touchdowns, one came on the aforementioned busted coverage. Two others came on long plays as a result of poor tackling. The fourth was on a nice curl route with 1:25 left in the fourth in Week 16, when Clay was again matched against a linebacker. I just don’t see Buffalo going to that consistently when they are probably better off running or throwing to Sammy Watkins when they get in close.
Clay is a very good blocker, especially in pass protection, which is a double-edged sword. His blocking is one of the reasons he played 81.9 percent of Buffalo’s offensive snaps last season, but it also helps explain why he has only topped 100 targets once in his career.
While Clay is a solid tight end, I don’t see much reason to believe he will pick up where he left off in the fantasy playoffs. Clay did find more space underneath when Sammy Watkins was on the field, and that showed in the statistics. In the seven games they played together in 2016, Clay caught 30 passes for 313 yards and four touchdowns. I project Clay for 14 games played in 2017, which seems reasonable considering he has averaged 14.3 games per year since he entered the NFL. If you double Clay’s numbers with Watkins from last season, you get a low-end TE1. That is probably pretty close to Clay’s Ceiling, while his floor is likely a repeat of 2015, when he had 51 receptions for 528 yards and three touchdowns in 13 games play.
I have Clay 15th in my tight end rankings, in the middle of a huge tier that begins with Martellus Bennett and ends with C.J. Fiedorowicz. Guys like Julius Thomas, O.J. Howard and Austin Hooper, may have more upside, but perhaps not as much as you think. I don’t think there is any doubt Clay is safer than those players. I have seen Clay go well later than guys like Jason Witten, and Kyle Rudolph, and I think they are all pretty similar players at this point.
Charles Clay is probably best suited to be a backup tight end in deeper leagues. I love Clay as a safety net if you draft Rob Gronkowski or Jordan Reed early. If you wait on tight end in something like a 16-team league, you should think about pairing Clay with someone like Austin Hooper to give you a high floor and some upside without having to spend too much draft capital.
I hope you enjoyed this look at Charles Clay as much as I did. If there are any other tight end topics you think I should tackle, please let me know in the comments below or on Twitter.