I filled out my NCAA tournament bracket yesterday, along with roughly 2 billion other people. I have Michigan State going to the Final Four, unlike about 1.99999 billion people. Believe it or not, there is some logic behind my pick. I believe Virginia’s lack of scoring is going to hurt them sooner than later, and Villanova should struggle once they actually face some tough competition. Mostly, though, I just believe in Tom Izzo to the point where every single year I pick them to go a round or two farther than everybody else does.
In general believing in the Spartans has worked out well, but it killed me in 2011. I know my bracket would do better if I could set aside my MSU blinders, but I haven’t been able to. I know intellectually this team is different from all of the Spartan teams that came before, but history colors my judgement. It seems like the same is true for a lot of fantasy players.
Injuries, trades, coaching changes and rest have drastically changed the fantasy basketball landscape. The Lakers, Knicks and Timberwolves are still great fantasy matchups, but teams like the Celtics, Mavericks and Jazz are not the cupcake fantasy matchups they once were. There are, of course, some familiar matchups in this week’s NBA schedule breakdown, but there are some new targets as well. If you cannot set aside the past and accurately evaluate the present you probably will not win your fantasy league or your NCAA tournament pool.
Rodney Hood, Utah Jazz (Home vs. Timberwolves, Home vs. Trail Blazers, Road vs. Nuggets, Home vs. Thunder, Road vs. Timberwolves) Hood needs to be owned in more leagues anyway after he averaged 16.2 points and 2.6 3PM over his last five games, but the schedule certainly helps. Since Wesley Matthews went down, the only teams with a worse defensive efficiency than Portland are Sacramento and Minnesota. The Thunder have the fifth-worst defensive rating over those games while the Nuggets are actually resting players just in case they haven’t been bad enough already this season. Dante Exum has shown signs of life lately, and he could be worth a pickup in deep leagues.
P.J. Tucker, Phoenix Suns (Home vs. Kings, Home vs. Trail Blazers, Home vs. Thunder, Road vs. Trail Blazers) Remember those defensive efficiency stats I quoted above? Phoenix may even have a slightly better schedule that Utah this week, as they have more rest, less travel and no games at altitude in Denver. For his part, P.J. Tucker has averaged 11.3 points, 7.8 rebounds and 0.8 steals in his last 10 games. Brandon Wright could be good against this schedule as well, especially if Alex Len remains out.
Marvin Williams, Charlotte Hornets (Road vs. Bulls, Home vs. Nets, Road vs. Wizards, Home vs. Hawks, Home vs. Celtics) This is probably the first time I have written about Marvin Williams in any capacity this season. He is in the middle of his best month, averaging 8.7 points, 5.2 rebounds and 1.9 3PM in March. Those numbers may not jump out at you, but the Bulls, Nets and Wizards are all a mess right now while Boston is fourth in the league in pace this season. The real interesting matchup here is against the Hawks. Atlanta hosts Miami the night before, and they will almost certainly rest at least a few of their rotation players.
Omer Asik, New Orleans Pelicans (Home vs. Rockets, Home vs. Kings, Home vs. Timberwolves) All of Omer Asik’s points come within five feet of the basket. Over the last 15 games the Timberwolves, Rockets and Kings are first, fourth and sixth in opponent’s field goals made per game within five feet. The Pelicans have at least one day off before each game, and Asik is averaging 1.2 points and 0.7 blocks per game more at home than on the road. He has three consecutive double-doubles, and he could easily have three more next week. Anthony Davis and Tyreke Evans could both be very good next week as well, as they are third and fifth in the NBA in FGM per game inside five feet.
Jordan Clarkson, Los Angeles Lakers (Road vs. Thunder, Road vs. Timberwolves, Road vs. Raptors, Road vs. Nets, Road vs. 76ers) Jeremy Lin is a pretty good play this week as well, but for some crazy reason Lin is owned in more fantasy leagues. If you own Lin and Clarkson are available you should drop Lin for Clarkson immediately. Clarkson has actually been better on the road than at home this season, which will come in handy this week. Clarkson has double-digit points in 11 consecutive games, and since the All-Star break he is averaging 14.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 0.9 3PM. The reason he and Lin are both good plays this week is all five of the Lakers' opponents are in the top half of the league in opponent’s assists per game this season. This could be your last best chance to make up some ground in the assists category.