The following is an excerpt from the 2015 Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is on sale now:
Second Year Players
By Kyle Elfrink
People will sell their souls to roster rookies. However, what about second-year players that people seem to discount completely if the player is coming off a down season? We’ll take a look at some under-the-radar potential plays in their second season as well as looking at some big name performers from 2014. What will they do for an encore?
* Note: There is no write-up on Jose Abreu. Ray Flowers has a Player Profile about the slugger.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Dellin Betances, RP, Yankees
2014 Numbers – 5 wins, 1.40 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 1 save, 135 Ks (13.5 K/9) in 70 games covering 90 innings
Let’s assume that the Pinstripes use the newly-signed Andrew Miller outside the 9th inning. Miller will get a few saves here and there because of lefty-lefty situations, but, overall, this should be Betances’ gig. And, frankly, if we make it through the spring and the youngster is ticketed for the 9th, you’re looking at one of the first 12 closers off the board. The K numbers are legit and the peripherals are solid. There’s always the question of mental makeup with a new closer, but here’s one that you should be willing to take a gamble on.
Nick Castellanos, 3B, Tigers
2014 Numbers - 11 HR, 66 RBI, 50 R, 2 SB, .259/.306/.394 in 148 games
There are plenty of decent, right-down-the-middle numbers to be found here. There’s just nothing beyond that. There are three numbers you won’t see up above, which are worth discussing. Castellanos whiffed in almost one of every four at-bats (24.2 percent) last year. He also had a BABIP of .324. But that number makes some sense, since he had the second-highest line drive-rate in all of MLB (28.5%). Swirl it all together and you probably have a near-repeat of his first go-around. Castellanos will continue to bat in the lower part of the Tiger lineup and that will also keep the counting numbers from jumping too much.
George Springer, OF, Astros
2014 Numbers - 20 HR, 51 RBI, 45 R, 5 SB, .231/.336/.468 in 78 games
Springer’s power and skill set are both 100 percent legit. He’s a cornerstone of the expected Astros’ resurgence. But, like so many freshmen, Springer has a lot of ground to still cover. Let’s start with 114 strikeouts in 295 at-bats. That’s alarmingly high. A nagging leg issue didn’t help matters and probably kept him from 30 fence jumpers. Give him that number for 2015. The RBIs will jump, the runs will be better and the average can sniff .250. Many drafters will be willing to strike earlier than warranted, so if you have interest in Springer, you will need to grab him a round or two earlier than his profile suggests.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Jacob deGrom, SP, Mets
2014 Numbers – 9 wins, 2.69 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 144 Ks (9.2 K/9) in 22 starts covering 140.1 innings
At the advanced rookie age of 26, deGrom piled up 11 starts with one or fewer runs allowed. So, where did this come from? After all, his career minor league ERA was over 3.50 and his K-rate was under 20 percent. deGrom pounded the strike zone (66 percent of his offerings) with a full-set of five pitches and he was a ground ball engineer in the minors. There is likely to be some regression here - he has no overpowering pitch and was operating beyond his established levels - and there should be some consideration about how he will fair if throwing 200 innings, but deGrom can survive as a low double-digit winner with an ERA in the mid 3’s and a K-rate near eight.
Ken Giles, RP, Phillies
2014 Numbers - 3 wins, 1.18 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 1 save, 64 Ks (12.4 K/9) in 44 games covering 45.2 innings
With Jonathan Papelbon still hanging out in Philly, Giles initial value is capped. Looking at his first rodeo in the bigs, there was little that Giles didn’t do. His lone loss of the season occurred on August 23rd when he served up three walks (a minor-league issue for him) in an inning-and-a-third versus St. Louis. From that spot through the end of the season, Giles walked a pair, whiffed 20, allowed just four hits, one earned run, grabbed a win, a save and five holds - in 14 innings. Giles profiles as a solid, third fantasy reliever with a holds total that will add up, exciting K numbers and a chance to become 2015’s version of Cody Allen.
Kolten Wong, 2B, Cardinals
2014 Numbers - 12 HR, 42 RBI, 52 R, 20 SB, .249/.292/.398 in 113 games
Some of Wong’s power might be legit. His swing is built to lift a few balls over the right-field wall every once in a while and there could be a lift to mid-teens this year. Average-wise, expect steady improvement that may have him sniffing .270, and the thefts are due a slight boost. He’ll have to show more patience at the dish, but overall, you’ve got a middle infielder that has a fighter’s chance at solid to above-average marks in all five categories.
There are dozens of more second year player breakdowns in the 2015 Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide
To read more of this article and 179+ more pages of Fantasy Baseball Bliss, get the 2015 Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide now. Best of all is that you can get the Draft Guide AND the 2015 MLB Assistant G.M. FREE with a $10 deposit to Fantasy Aces