2017 Fantasy Baseball Player Profile: Michael Wacha

Michael Wacha

25 years old

Bats/Throws: %/R

Height/Weight: 6’6”, 210 lbs

Position: Starting Pitcher

THE NUMBERS

Minor League Overall Rankings for Wacha who was drafted 19th overall in the 2012 Entry Draft.

THE HEALTH ISSUE

When drafted Wacha was a projectable potential ace. Blessed with ideal size, a mid-90’s fastball, a strong changeup that generated swings and misses, and a curveball that was improving, he was thought of as, at worst, a third pitcher at the big-league level, one with the talent to be an SP2 at least.

Alas, his career was derailed in 2014 when he suffered a stress reaction in his shoulder.

He returned in 2015 to have the best season of his career to date.

In 2016 though his shoulder started to bark again costing him over a month of game action.

Where does he look heading into 2017?

"He looks good," manager Mike Matheny said. "I think we have all been pretty clear, we need him healthy. If he's healthy, the results will normally be there. It's been a good spring for him." Wacha has looked good in spring, and as of this writing he’s struck out 15 and walked four over 17 innings. There has also been talk of him finding some of the “finish” on his pitches, something that has eluded him of late. "That's been one of the focuses, is pitching down in the zone with the heater and working the [other] pitches off that," Wacha said. "Just continue to build off that and continue firing strikes and getting the command of the fastball is what I'm trying to do."

How he looks now is heartening, but at the same time concerns abound about his ability to stay healthy. Fact is, his shoulder issue continues to crop up and there is no way to know if that will change moving forward. That’s the biggest issue with Wacha. He’s got a strange injury that keeps popping up. The only other hurler that really compares is Brandon McCarthy, and he had issues with his shoulder in 4-straight seasons and in fact the issue has come up six times for McCarthy. "He said he went through six times where it kept on recurring, and one year it just never came back," Wacha said. "There is definitely some optimism looking forward there."

To combat the issue Wacha has developed a new strategy, and he’s on a new strengthening program which has increased the strength of his lower half. He’s also worked to add strength in his upper body because stabilizing the muscles around the bone is the only known fix. "I think I've got the right muscles firing in the position they need to be to throw a baseball the correct way," Wacha said. "I'm real happy with the way things are going right now and I just have to continue to build on that."

Remember this fact though... no one knows how many innings Wacha will be able to throw this season.

THE SKILLS

Wacha has seen his strikeout rate decrease each season of his career.

Wacha has seen his walk rate increase each season of his career.

Obviously... that means Wacha has seen his K/BB ratio dip each of the last three seasons.

In 2016 the numbers were 7.43 K/9, 2.93 BB/9 and 2.53 K/BB ratio.

The league average last season was 8.10 K/9, 3.14 BB/9, 2.58 K/BB ratio.

Obviously, Wacha comes into the 2017 season as a league average performer.

More data.

Since the All-Star Game in 2015...

Fact is that Wacha has actually been a worse than league average pitcher for a year and a half now, and with his health concerns he is impossible to trust.

One good thing Wacha has done the last two seasons is to limit the fly ball. The last two years the mark is 32.0 and 29.6 percent, a notch below the 35 percent league average. However, there’s also been a negative as he’s allowed a 23 percent line drive rate the last two seasons. Heck, after posting a HR/FB ratio under 7.5 percent his first two seasons the mark has been 11.2 and 11.6 percent the last two years. It’s actually a bit difficult to interpret the data given those two sets of numbers but a final statement would lean toward a lack of being impressed.

PLAYING TIME

Wacha is desperately needed by the Cardinals. Adam Wainwright had a down effort last season. Lance Lynn will be working on his first season back from Tommy John surgery. Alex Reyes is done for the year with his own TJ surgery. The Cards need Wacha to throw at least 180-innings this season.

AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION DATA

As of this writing, here is the ADP data for Wacha.

CONCLUSION

I’m not suggesting anyone drafts Wacha unless the only goal is to take a shot and we’ll see where the cards fall. There is simply too much uncertainty with Wacha’s health, and now with his performance, to roster him at the draft table with any reasonable expectation of significant success in 2017.

10/12/15 -Team Mixed: The only league I would even consider rostering him is the 15 teamer, and again, I’m not doing that.  

NL-Only League: If the cost is minimal you can take a shot. But I would honestly only consider the price to be right if your expectation is 120 innings of moderate work. Buying him low and hoping is fine. Paying full price and expecting a rebound to ‘15 levels is a road headed off the cliff.  

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).