2017 Fantasy Baseball Player Profile: Andrew Toles

Andrew Toles

24 years old

Bats/Throws: L/R

Height/Weight: 5’10”, 190 lbs

Position: Outfield

THE NUMBERS

THE STORY

In 2011 Toles was kicked off the University of Tennessee team.

In 2012 he was suspended by Chipola College.

After an epic minor league season in 2013, when he was named Rays Minor League Player of the Year, things took a turn for the worse for Toles.

The third-round pick was kicked off his squad in May 2014 for getting into an argument with his manager. He didn’t appear in a game the final few months.

Ultimately the Rays released Toles in spring of the 2015 season.

Toles spent the entire 2015 season on the shelf as he actually worked at Krogen’s grocery store working in the frozen foods section. He did hit in the cage and work out in the weight room even though he didn’t play organized baseball.

Part of the reason for his struggles are an anxiety issue that he’s been treating with medication and counseling. “All the stuff that I had to go through, that I experienced, it just kind of helped,” he said. “I just feel like it’s no big deal now. Nothing to lose.”

He returned to baseball with the Dodgers last season pulling off the quad-fecta appearing in 22 games at Single-A, 43 at Double-A, 17 at Triple-A and 48 games in the majors. Pretty amazing.

THE SKILLS
Toles as a very athletic ball player. He has a nice left-handed stroke with quick hands and a nice throw of the barrel to the ball. The stroke is a gap-to-gap kinda swing with his homer upside might not even being in the double-digits at this point, especially with his often inside-out approach. Despite an aggressive approach, he doesn’t strike out too much though do does tend to expand his strike zone when the heat is cranked up on the mph meter. He also shows some vulnerability to the changeup. His biggest offensive talent could be his elite level wheels that he augments with an instinctive understanding/feel of the game.

Toles was an excellent performer last season at all levels. In fact, he’s always been a strong hitter with a .309 career mark in the minors over 306 games, followed up by his .314 mark with the Dodgers last season. He’s also posted a solid .349 OBP as a professional player. He could certainly stand to walk more, just 74 walks in 354 games, if he wants to keep that OBP up because the split between his AVG and OBP is just .039 points. That’s an extremely poor gap meaning his ability to get on base is tied to his batting average. This is far from ideal.

Though Toles hasn’t been a homer hitter with 20 in those 354 games, he has sprayed the ball all over the field leading to a .462 SLG that is higher than many of the speedster types that are currently active in the big leagues. Take last season for example when he hit seven homers with 35 doubles and seven triples over 104 games.

Toles has that elite speed, coupled with an innate feel, that is rare. He’s someone who, if playing daily, should be able to swipe 30 bases with relative ease.

Two negatives...

Toles struck out 25 times in 105 at-bats last season with the Dodgers, once every 4.2 at-bats, way worse than his mark of one every 5.9 at-bats in the minors.

Toles appeared in 82 games in the minors last season but had a mere 59 at-bats against lefties batting just .203. The Dodgers gave him just 13 at-bats against lefties last season leading to three hits (.231).

PLAYING TIME

The Dodgers have so many options to turn to in the outfield it is mind-numbing. As of this writing, here they are.

Left Field (Toles, Franklin Gutierrez, Scott Van Slyke): Gutierrez is 34 years old but the plan appears to be for Toles and Franklin sharing time in left field. Gutierrez posted 14 homers and a .780 OPS last season but he’s best used nearly exclusively versus lefties (.884 OPS last season against port siders). Van Slyke is recovered from wrist surgery but it’s hard to envision him having a role barring injury to others.

Center Field (Joc Pederson, Trayce Thompson, Enrique Hernandez): Pederson should play most days after manager Dave Roberts said that Joe will get a chance to face more lefties this season. Thompson’s back is pretty much back to full health though his role seems to be that of a reserve outfielder. Hernandez is a nice spare part, nothing more.

Right Field (Yasiel Puig, Andre Ethier): Puig has had a strong spring, but he’s also dealt with health issues (see Hitter Hot Takes). Ethier had another setback, this time with his hip. Doesn’t sound like a major issue, but it’s also fair to question his availability for Opening Day which seems like a pipe dream after his recent diagnosis with a mild herniation of a disc that will shut him down for at least a week after he received an epidural.

The point should be obvious. While it seems that Toles has a role, there are so many moving parts in the Dodgers outfield that it’s far from certain exactly what Toles role will be, or what would happen if he started the season off in a cold streak?

As of this writing Toles has hit .286 with a .730 OPS in 12 spring games. He has no homers and no steals while he also hasn’t drawn a walk.

AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION DATA

As of this writing, here is the ADP data for Toles.

Toles seems likely to start in the outfield for the Dodgers, at least early on, playing daily against right-handed pitching. It doesn’t seem likely that he will face lefties, and once the outfield is health there could be a significant squeeze for playing time with the athletic outfielder.  

10-Team Mixed: I don’t see a reason to take him here. Keep him on your watch list.  

12-Team Mixed: Nothing other than a bench dart throw for speed. With concerns about playing time, I would be looking elsewhere.

15-Team Mixed: Take Mallex Smith or Toles? Take Ben Revere or Toles? These are legitimate questions once can ponder. There’s certainly a spot on someone’s roster, in this format, for Toles. He should be drafted as a reserve option, even in five starting outfielder leagues, but there are certainly plausible reasons to suggest that rostering Toles makes sense.

NL-Only League: Certainly worth an addition here given the wheels and the likely stable batting average. He also has going for him that in most setups he simply won’t be very costly.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).