2017 Fantasy Baseball Player Profile: Ryan Schimpf

Ryan Schimpf

28 years old

Bats/Throws: L/R

Height/Weight: 5’9”, 185 lbs

Position: Second Base

THE NUMBERS
 

Note that Schimpf turns 29 on April 11^th. He ain’t no spring chicken.

THE SKILLS

Peaks and valleys.

Let’s talk peak, though of course it comes with a valley.

Schimpf hit 20 homers in just 276 at-bats last season with the Padres. Pretty easy to say it’s unsustainable. Here’s why. Schimpf posted a 17.7 percent HR/FB ratio which is slightly above his head given his overall game. Even if we accept that rate, here’s the problem with his game, and I’m going to use bold here – he hits an INSANE number of fly balls.

Schimpf posted a fly ball rate of 64.9 percent last season.

The league average last season was 34.6 percent.

Only one other player in baseball, minimum 300 plate appearances, posted a fly ball mark of 49 percent last season. That’s 268 men and only two in baseball over 49 a percent fly ball rate. One was Schimpf at 64.9 percent, the other was Brandon Moss at 52.6 percent.

It’s impossible that Schimpf will repeat that mark this season and maintain a starting spot in the big leagues, so unless his HR/FB ratio goes way up his homer pace will fall significantly.

Moreover, fly balls are least likely to end up in base hits of the batted balls. Borrowing from Fangraphs, here are the results for batted balls. Ground balls result in an average of about .240, fly balls about .210 and line drives about .685. You hit fly balls, and you simply cannot produce a batting average. What did Schimpf hit last year, .217 right? He also hit .179 over his final 78 at-bats as everything simply fell apart.

Furthermore, Schimpf struck out a ton with 105 whiffs in 89 games. That’s a pace for about 200 punchouts folks. You can’t hit .250 doing that.

Schimpf also hit, if you can call it that, .157 against lefties last season. He also struck out 25 times in 51 at-bats against southpaws. He did rip lefties in the minors, he had a 1.114 OPS against them last season at Triple-A (55 plate appearances), but come on when you look at those marks he posted with the Padres. Don’t know why he would even be on the field against lefties this season, especially if that lefty is upper level. He failed against lefties last season about as miserably as someone can (more on this in Playing Time below).

Schimpf had one of the dumbest numbers I’ve ever seen last season, that is his 0.30 GB/FB ratio. That means his line drive rate was only 15.5 percent. The league average is 20-21 percent. All he did is hit fly balls. That’s it. Period.

Schimpf posted an Isolated Power mark of .315 last season. That was the best mark in baseball for a player with 300 plate appearances. Schimpf was the best power hitter in baseball last season? You buying any of that junk? Only two men in baseball bettered that mark in 2015 (Giancarlo Stanton .341, Bryce Harper .319). In 2014 no one did. Yeah, the last three years Ryan Schimpf had the third best mark in baseball according to Isolated Power. Uh huh.

I will grant you that we’re only talking 89 games here, a small sample size, so let’s address that. How did Schimpf do in the minors?

Schimpf hit .249.
He’s not a refined hitter.
Not happening.

In the minors he had 683 strikeouts in 733 games or one every 3.78 at-bats.
In the big leagues the mark was one every 2.62 at-bats.
He was much better in the minors, but shouldn’t a 28 year old be able to put the ball in play against 21 year olds?

In the minors, he had a homer every 20.1 at-bats.
As a big leaguer, he has a homer every 13.8 at-bats.

He does get on base, especially relative to his batting average. Here are those marks. The “Split” listed below refers to the advantage his OBP had compared to his batting average.

He is patient and will take a walk.

PLAYING TIME

Schimpf appears to be in line to be the starter at second base for the Padres. That said, manager Andy Green says he actually would prefer to have Schimpf at third base with Yangervis Solarte moving over to second. Schimpf played 68 games at second base last season so he qualifies there everywhere, but he only appeared in 14 games at third, 12 starts, meaning that he’s unlikely to qualify there in most leagues. If he were to add hot corner eligibility that would certainly be a nice boost in league specific settings.

As mentioned above, Schimpf was abysmal versus lefties last season. Meanwhile, Corey Spangenberg, a first round selection in 2011, has an impressive .294 batting average and .400 OBP over 102 plate appearances against lefties. That’s gotta make you nervous if you’re thinking Schimpf is going to rack up 550 plate appearances this season.

AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION DATA

As of this writing, here is Schimpf’s ADP data.

Fantasy Alarm Player Rankings

CONCLUSION

The guy has nice power for the position, and he knows how to take a walk. He’s also murder in the batting average column and with his approach month long slumps are possible. Given his age, and lack of pedigree, he’s simply not very talented, a long slump could lead to him being benched or even demoted.

10-Team Mixed: Zero interest here.  

12-Team Mixed: Zero interest. If you’re taking the plunge it’s merely as a middle infield option cause you have an Elvis Andrus or Josh Harrison at short or second. I still wouldn’t do it.

15-Team Mixed: Pretty much the same thing here as in the top-2 leagues. This is not a profile I’m interested in with all the holes and the potentially gaping hole in the floor that Ryan could fall through.  

NL-Only League: Playing time concerns are an issue. In NL LABR Schimpf went for $7. I’m ok with that level of commitment, but it should smack you in the face to learn that Kolten Wong went for $10. Yep, no one believes. Neither should you.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).