2017 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Chris Sale

Chris Sale

28 years old

Bats/Throws: L/L

Height/Weight: 6’6”, 205 lbs

Position: Starting Pitcher

THE NUMBERS

Sale has finished in the top-6 in the AL Cy Young vote in each of the last five seasons.   

A COMPARISON

Let’s talk David Price, which I believe is where a lot of this concern with Sale starts.

Price came to the Red Sox last season as an elite level lefty (just like Sale).

Price struggled the most he had in seven years ending the season with a seven year high in ERA (3.99) and WHIP (1.20). At the same time, Price was first in baseball with 230 innings pitched, seventh in strikeouts (228), ninth in K/BB ratio (4.56) and he tied his career best with 17 victories. Still, the lingering belief in everyone’s mind was that Price stunk in his first season with the Red Sox. It’s not true, but that’s what people think. People are seemingly compounding that incorrect starting point by incorrectly comparing what “happened” to Price in his first season in Boston as if that is the blueprint for what will happen to Sale this season.

1 – What happened to Price last year was nowhere near as bad as most seem to think.

2 – Price is not Sale.

3 – Just because Price struggled last season with the Red Sox has no bearing whatsoever on whether or not Sale will struggle in 2017. None.

People seem to think Price was terrible at Fenway. Was he? The 4.11 ERA isn’t good, but as you should all be aware of by now, using ERA to judge a pitcher’s effectiveness is overly simplistic. Look at the other numbers price posted at home last season. They include: a 9.87 K/9, 1.66 BB/9, 1.15 WHIP, 3.18 xFIP, .317 wOBA. That’s ain’t bad at all folks.

Elite lefty, first year in Boston... I get the parallels. But parallels are nothing other than generalities. The fact that some folks seem to have concerns with Sale because of what happened to Price is simply putting together disparate pieces hoping to make a connection that really doesn’t exist.

THE SKILLS

Sale has always been in the American League, though to hear some folks talk about it you would think he’s entering that league for the first time.

Second, Sale has pitched in Fenway six times. In those six outings he has a 3.63 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 23 strikeouts and just four walks over 22.1 innings. He’s also yet to allow a homer there.

Third, not that it matters much since what happened in 2012 doesn’t really effect 2017, but I’ve heard that ‘Ray, he’s going to the AL East and that’s a tough division.’ So many issues.

A – Sale pitches for the Red Sox who he won’t have to face.

B – Here are his career numbers against the Orioles, Blue Jays (no Edwin Encarnacion), Yankees and Rays.

All told, that’s a 2.61 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, a K/9 of 10.34 and a K/BB ratio of 3.69. Is that really a level that should concern anyone?

Let’s talk strikeouts.

Sale’s number last season in the K/9 column was more than 2.5 batters per nine off his career best rate set in 2015, and his 9.25 rate in ’16 was well below his 10.09 career rate. People are concerned thinking that Sale has lost stuff. It’s simply not true. Prior to Spring Training last year, way back in January, there were plenty of reports circulating about how Sale was going to change how he attacked hitters so as to be more efficient on the hill. "You can't strike a guy out on strike one or strike two," Sale said. "Just try to get quick, easy outs. That's the name of the game. It's just throwing more quality strikes earlier in the count. I think a lot of coaches everywhere say you want them on or out in three pitches. If you can live by that, you're doing all right."

It was his plan to strike out less batters as he wanted to be more efficient and therefore have more left in the tank when he needed it. Sale accomplished exactly what he set out to last season. (A) He averaged 3.78 pitches per plate appearance, the best mark of his career. (B) He averaged 15.1 pitches an inning, the best mark of his career. (C) Even though he threw 16 more innings in 2016 than he did in 2015 he only threw 108 more pitches. (D) You can also see how his new approach helped his walk rate which was 1.79 BB/9 last season, also the best of his career. (E) The fact is that Sale was more efficient than ever before in 2016 leading to a career best 226.2 innings pitched.

A quick review of his 2016 effort compared to his career rates in many categories follows.

Sale didn’t pitch any differently, in terms of the results, last year than he always does. He just got there in a slight different, but planned, manner.
 
AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION DATA

As of this writing, here is Sale’s ADP data.

Fantasy Alarm Player Rankings

CONCLUSION

There is no debate that there will be a transition period for Sale in Boston, but it’s not like he doesn’t know what he’s doing. It’s not like he’s coming from a small market. It’s not like his skills fell off last season. Draft Sale as an SP1 in all formats, and forget about those unfounded David Price first year comparisons.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).