2017 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Andrew Benintendi

Andrew Benintendi

Age: 22 years old

Bats/Throws: L/L

Height/Weight: 5’10”, 180 lbs

Position: Outfield

THE NUMBERS

Here are Andrew’s prospect rankings last year amongst all big league prospects: Baseball America (15^th), Baseball Prospectus (46^th) and MLB.com (25^th).

Note that he was recently named the #1 prospect in baseball according to MLB.com. As Paul Sporer pointed out, the top ranked hitter each year, according to Baseball America, haven’t exactly all been superstars right out of the gate.

*PA: plate appearances

THE SKILLS

Let’s break some things down.

Benintendi is a normal sized fella. You’d walk past him on the street and not even notice him. He’s trying to change that as he’s reported added 20 lbs since the end of last season. He’s not exactly small now. "For me, it's tough to gain weight, so I've just been eating a lot, and I'm working out," said Benintendi. "It's been tough, but obviously it's worth it." Personally, I tend to worry a bit when any player radically changes their physique, even if it’s in the positive direction. Which is something to keep in mind with Andrew.

Andrew has a plus/plus hit tool. He knows the strike zone. He recognizes pitches. He stays within himself. He has a plan. His strike zone understanding/discipline is pretty much elite.

He barrels up the ball with astonishing frequency. His swing has been described as compact, and astonishing fluid. Who doesn’t like the sounds of that?

But here’s the deal with Benintendi. He doesn’t own the skills to becomes a superstar in fantasy. Here’s why.

Though the ball jumps off his bat he’s likely to settle in as a 15-20 homer bat who doesn’t own the pop to hit 30.

He’s fast, but he’s way more likely to steal 15-20 bases than 30.

Another way to say it.

Benintendi’s floor and ceiling are nearly the same. The odds of him failing are virtually non-existent. The odds of him becoming a fantasy star are virtually non-existent. His case is one where his real-world talent isn’t likely to translate into the fantasy game the way that most folks think. Which brings me to...

THE COMPARISON

As I write this Profile, a look at the NFBC ADP shows me that Benintendi is going off the board around pick 135 overall. Melky Cabrera’s ADP is nearly double at 260. I get it. Melky is just a guy and is boring. We know who he is. Benintendi is sexy, young, exciting, and plays for the Red Sox. Again, I totally understand it. I would still suggest to you that it’s also totally wrong that Cabrera should be coming off the board at roughly half the cost. Let me explain.

Last season Melky Cabrera went .296-14-86-70-2 in 151 games.

For his career, per 162 games, Cabrera has gone .286-12-73-80-10.

Are you really going to sit here and tell me that your expectations for Benintendi have you significantly passing those two fantasy lines? Really? You really are expecting Benintendi to hit .295 with 15 homers, 80 RBI, 80 runs and 10 steals? Do you know how many guys went .295-15-90-80-10 last year? The answer is six: Jose Altuve, Mookie Betts, Charlie Blackmon, Ryan Braun, Paul Goldschmidt and Mike Trout. So, as you can see, being Melky Cabrera-like really ain’t that bad a thing.

We also have a decade of work from Cabrera telling us who he is. With Benintendi, an admittedly more skilled player, we have less than two months in the big leagues to look at. You can’t honestly tell me that the chances are higher that Benintendi will be Melky than Melky will be himself in 2017, can you?

PLAYING TIME

Where will Benintendi hit in the order is the question, because we know he will play daily in the outfield.

In a report from MassLive, Christopher Smith posits that Benintendi appears likely to open the season hitting second. If he is indeed between Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogarts that would be wonderful.

The Providence Journal had this to say. “Benintendi might be the second hitter in Boston's batting order by Opening Day this year.”

The thought being that Benintendi’s left-handed bat would be a good thing to break up the righties at the top (it would also remove him from creating a lefty heavy bottom of the order). Not to mention that his skill set seems ideally suited to fill the second spot.

Manager John Farrell said this. "He's got very good balance at the plate. He's got very good strike-zone understanding. He didn't give way against lefthanders. As you look at the candidates to break up those four right-handers in a row, he's a guy you'd look to do that with. Early on in spring training, when we sit down with Andrew, we'll have that as part of the conversation, to take a look at him in that top part of the order."

Seems likely he will get a serious shot at batting second.

CONCLUSION

Benintendi is likely being over drafted this season. If he hits second all year it’s hard to envision a scenario in which he won’t be productive. At the same time, the belief in the fantasy community is that he will be something he isn’t. It would all have to come together for Andrew to go 15/15 this season, and that seems to be the floor of expectations for most. I would say be cautious, but if you are you won’t be able to roster Andrew Benintendi, a can’t miss hitter with an exceedingly bright future.

10-Team Mixed: He’s a fifth outfielder type here. With such a shallow league you can (A) take a chance on him early and if he fails to meet expectations just get another guy off waivers or (B) roster more established hitters you know you can count on while taking late shots on guys.

12-Team Mixed: A fourth outfielder, most will take him as their third or potentially even their second. He shouldn’t hurt folks this season, we’ve established that, but that cost is trending toward being prohibitive.

15-Team Mixed: Deep leagues like this one require some chance taking. Personally I would like to take that chance in the 19^th round, not the 10^th. Your risk tolerance will be tested with Benintendi.

AL-Only League: The skills are there. You have to decide how much you’re willing to invest in them given what will be an extremely high price point.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).