‘How could you possibly suggest that someone drop the Vikings defense this week even though they are on Bye? That’s just stupid.’
I’ve heard something like that multiple times the last 24 hours after I dared to suggest that you could drop a defense, any defense (including the Vikings), to ease the bye week burden in Week 6. It’s so obvious I can’t believe I have to explain it in an article, but given the reaction on Twitter I clearly need to spend a few moments laying it out.
1 – You start one defense.
Defenses simply aren’t as important as the other positions. No matter what type of league you are in, all traditional leagues start two runners and two wideouts. If you’re league isn’t stuck in the stone age you also start a flex play. That’s five runners/wideouts to start weekly (you’re in an odd spot if you have two tight ends and are using them weekly). If you’ve caught up to the 21st century you’re in a league that starts two runners and three wideouts. That means two runners, three wideouts and a flex for a total of six players.
You start one defense.
2 – No one really knows which defenses will excel or fail.
There are a whole host of reasons for this. Just a few examples follow. How will the players on the unit gel? How are things going with the new coordinators? How have injuries effected the unit? Has weather been an issue? Have the matchups simply been bad ones or good ones? What has the game flow scenario been like? Etc.
Looking at Fantasy Pros, a spot that collates the rankings of a whole host of experts, here is how the team defenses were ranked before the season started. Check out the top-10, contributed by CBS Sports, numberfire, STATS, FFToday, NFL.com and FantasyData.
1 Denver
2 Carolina
3 Arizona
4 Kansas City
5 Los Angeles
6 Pittsburgh
7 Seattle
8 Green Bay
9 New England
10 Houston
Do you see the Minnesota Vikings?
The Vikings were ranked 14th. That means the experts thought that the Vikings weren’t even worthy of being rostered unless you were in a 14 team league.
Let’s look at the Nationals Fantasy Football Championship ADP (NFFC). The folks there were bigger fans listing the Vikes as the 7th defense off the board.
Fantasy Alarm had the Vikings ranked 13th in the preseason rankings.
No matter who you trust, the bottom line is that there was no real love for the Vikings just two months ago.
Now, everyone thinks they are elite, the best defense in football, and a must own/hold.
Really?
3 – How does the Vikings defense actually rank?.jpg)
Let’s take a look at some major categories.
The Vikings lead the NFL in scoring defense at 12.6 points per game.
No team in football was under 17 points last season.
Only one team was under 17 points in 2014 (Seahawks at 15.9).
The Vikings points allowed total will go way up.
The Vikings are allowing 288 yards a game, 4th best.
The Vikings allow 209.8 passing yards a game, 8th best.
The Vikings have allowed four passing scores in five games. Only five teams have allowed less.
The Vikings allow 77.8 rushing yards a game, 6th best.
The Vikings have allowed three rushing scores in five games. Nine teams have allowed less.
The Vikings have 19 sacks, tied for the most in football.
The Vikings have seven interceptions, tied for second in football.
Those are all really strong marks. However, it’s been just five games. Let’s look at their weekly matchups.
Week 1: The faced a Titans offense that has one player of note – DeMarco Murray. This is not a good offense. Period.
Week 2: They held the Packers down at home. Solid work, but as I’ve detailed before, Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been Aaron Rodgers for a while now.
Week 3: Impressive here holding the Panthers to 10 points in Carolina. Cam Newton played a poor game though, holding the ball too long, taking sacks, and not taking what the defense was allowing him to do.
Week 4: The Giants… how many folks who own Giants players are happy with their performance? Eli Manning has been down, Rashad Jennings has been hurt, and ODB isn’t getting in the end zone.
Week 5: Pretty clear at this point that Brock Osweiler isn’t ready to be an NFL star. Not even remotely close. He’s barely competent at the moment.
Here are the DVOA ranks for all the offenses they have faced.
Titans – 13th
Packers – 7th
Panthers – 20th
Giants – 19th
Texans – 32nd (last)
The Vikes have only faced one offense in the top-10.
Are the Vikings really as good as they appear to be?
4 – Fantasy scoring is random for defenses.
All scoring systems are different.
I’ll give a few examples of leagues I’m in using per game averages for fantasy points since teams have started to miss games with bye weeks.
NFFC: The Vikings are the top scoring defense at 16.6 points a game. The 12th ranked defense is scoring is at 7.6 points a week (I use 12 as a default for the number of teams in a league).
SiriusXM Hosts League: The Vikings lead the way at 18.4 points a game. The 12th ranked defense is at 8.4 points a week.
DraftExperts League (Sirius Hosts): The Vikings lead the way at 13.8 points a game. The 12th ranked defense is at 6.6 points a week.
I could go on and on, but basically we can say that the #1 defense of the Vikings is scoring about twice as many as the last starting defense – assuming you’re in a 12-team league that is.
That’s significant.
However, remember that you have to start at least two runners and two wideouts in every league. You should be starting two and three. There’s also the flex spot to consider. Keep that all in mind when you hold on to the Vikings this week at the expense of adding a player off waivers that can help your lineup in Week 6 because you have someone on the bye or are dealing with an injury. Keep that in mind when you pass on a guy on waivers this week that could blow up the rest of the way and help your lineup weekly for the rest of the season.
Let me be clear.
IT’S WAY MORE IMPORTANT TO HAVE RUNNING BACKS AND WIDE RECEIVERS THAN IT IS TO HAVE A HIGH LEVEL DEFENSE.
It’s simple supply and demand.
As for the actual production…
The best fantasy defenses score 12-18 points a week. They gain you an advantage of 2-6 points a week.
The best runners score 15-23 points in PPR setups. Remember, you have to start at least twice as many of these guys as a defense. The best receivers scored 15-23 points in PPR setups, and you have to starts twice as many, perhaps three times as many as you do defenses. I haven’t even got to the flex spot yet either. Fact is that with deep player pool penetration at RB, WR and TE, it’s simply way more important to have players you can trust at this spots.
Speaking of points…
5 - It seems unlikely that, given everything we know, that the Vikings will be able to sustain their early pace.
How are points generated for defenses?
Most of it is on big plays. Some leagues are different, no doubt, but the majority of leagues use a pretty basic setup that greatly rewards interceptions, sacks and touchdown scoring.
The Vikings have two defensive touchdowns..jpg)
No team in football had more than six defensive touchdowns last year.
No team had more than four in 2014.
They have forced six fumbles. That’s a pace of 19.2 forced fumbles.
Only four teams bettered that mark last year (high of 21).
Only two teams bettered that mark in 2014 (high of 22).
They have 19 sacks. That’s a pace for 60.8 sacks.
No team in football had more than 52 sacks last year.
The league leader in 2014 was 54.0 sacks.
Could the Vikings keep up their current pace? Possible, though unlikely. Realize that so much of football is about matchups and health. Even if the Vikings stay healthy, the matchups could get to them. Perhaps they run into a few hot clubs? Perhaps they get lit up by the Lions, Reskins, Cardinals, Lions, Cowboys, Jaguars or Packers (their week 10-16 matchups). It’s entirely possible that the Vikes early big play tendencies slow, in fact it’s rather likely. Given the way that the overwhelming majority of leagues record defensive points, expecting a defense to double the last starting unit on a weekly basis is just foolish. It just doesn’t happen. Remember back two months ago when everyone thought the Vikes would be solid on defense? No one thought they would be elite. No one. Things change, I get that, but the love of a defensive unit, and the utter insanity attached to it in the fantasy game, is beyond me.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).