Nick Castellanos had a .939 OPS in April. The mark is even higher in May at 1.052. What the heck is going on here? Castellanos had an HR/FB the last two years of 16.7 percent (7.5 and 9.2 percent). This year the mark is… 16.7 percent. Is he really going to double his career rate in 2016? Castellanos had a .324 BABIP the last two seasons. The mark this year is .400. Is he going to post a mark in this category that we see about once every five years? Of course not. Should be noted that his flay ball rate is way up at 47 percent, and while that will undoubtedly allow him to hit 20 homers for the first time, he’s not going to hit .300 with that many fly balls. Oh yeah, after batting .257 the last two years he’s hitting .348. There’s serious regression coming. Just hope that it doesn’t happen all at once.

Michael Conforto hit .365 with a 1.118 OPS in April. He’s batting .160 with a .468 OPS in May. Yikes is right. However, the slow down makes sense. Check out Conforto’s work last season (.270/.335/.506) compared to his overall work this year (.282/.353/.508). Note any difference there? Through 90 games in his career he’s been very impressive with 14 homers, 46 RBI and 47 runs scored, not to mention a .849 OPS, but there are still concerns about his up and down work, not to mention his lack of performance against lefties (.179/.220/.179).

Zack Cozart hit .361 in April with a .911 OPS. Come on, seriously? For his career Cozart has hit .249 with a .669 OPS. That is who he is. He’s a barely passable offensive performer, not a potential breakout star. So what has happened in May? Cozart has hit .244 with a .695 OPS. Sometimes it really is that easy. Cozart still has an .800 OPS at home and on the road, and against lefties and righties, so perhaps we should reassess the view that Cozart just flat out stinks, but it’s clear to me that if I had to place a wager on Cozart that I would expect him to perform more like the May version of himself than the April one.

Odubel Herrera hit .313 with a .887 OPS in April, and given his overall game and performance last season (.297 with a .762 OPS) I figured there wasn’t a great shot for Odubel to continue along those lines of production. Well, here comes a May that’s even better as Herrera has hit .383 with a .973 OPS. His walk rate has slowed tremendously, he walked 23 times in 24 outings in April before seeing that number dip to six in 15 May outings, but still, he’s already walked more times this season in 39 games this season than he did in 147 games last season. There’s no way he’s going to hit .343, that .400 BABIP is massive and unsupported by his 20.5 percent line drive rate, and there’s no chance he’s going to walk more than strikeout (last year the BB/K ratio was 0.22, this season it’s five times higher at 1.07). He’s been great and should be better than last season, no problem saying that, but we’re getting to the ridiculous point with Odubel.

Joe Mauer hit .321 with a .453 OBP and he was considered potentially back. Unfortunately, he appears to be back… back to being the craptastic option he has been the past few years. Mauer is batting a sickly .191 with a .482 OPS in May and that has dropped his season long average down to .271 with a .751 OPS. He still has a nice .392 OBP, but with one homer, nine RBI and 10 runs scored in 37 games, Mauer has proven himself to be pretty useless outside AL-only leagues yet again. What at one point looked promising now appears to yet another case of a small sample size skewing the data.

Nomar Mazara hit .333 with a .852 OPS in April and everyone was stoked. He’s hit .271 with a .702 OPS in May and that excitement is waning a bit. Mazara is batting .303 with a .355 OBP overall, and those are mighty impressive numbers for a rookie no matter how you slice it. Alas, the power stroke he owns hasn’t really shown itself as he’s hit just four homers this season. He’s also not yet shown an ability to hit left-handed pitching at all with a .588 OPS, no homers and two RBI over the course of 43 plate appearances. Strong start, but with no steals, and only four homers and 12 RBI and his struggles against lefties, his fantasy value isn’t as high as one would expect.  

Jordy Mercer hit .318 with a .394 OBP in the month of April. He also drove in 13 runs while scoring 12 times. He’s never been that hitter, ever, and it was dubious that his hot start would be sustainable in any form. It’s been brutal in May as Mercer has hit .190 with a .524 OPS and just one RBI and two runs scored in 13 contests. Add it all up and he’s batting .276 with a .373 OBP and .712 OPS. Sorry folks, but he’s not even that hitter as his career numbers are .259/.314/.375. The good times aren’t coming back for this slick fielder.

Colby Rasmus had a .979 OPS in April. I told everyone, the whole time, to bail. We know exactly what Rasmus is, and it ain’t no all-star. In 13 May games Rasmus is batting .204 with a .522 OPS and nary a home run. That two-week failure has brought his season long slash line down to .238/.346/.446. Know who his career marks are? Try on .244, .315 and .443. Same is as same does.

Trevor Story had a 1.019 OPS with 10 homers, 20 RBI and 19 runs in a stupendous April of 22 games. Stupendous. I gotta admit that I continue to be impressed with Story. He has only one homer in 14 games in May bit he’s hit a robust .310 with an impressive .875 OPS. He’s been really good. I said that already, right? Have I been wrong about him? Yes, I have. Story still has warning signs. His 32 percent K-rate is horrible (53 in 36 games). He has no chance to hit .280 with a rate that high. He’s also the owner of 46 percent fly ball rate. He’s not going to hit .280 with a mark that high. Also, that 24.4 percent HR/FB ratio is too high to be sustained as well, and the number continues to dip given the fact that he’s stop hitting homers.

Neil Walker had a .962 OPS in April. The mark is .542 in May. Yikes. Still, the .829 mark he owns is still way above the .771 mark he owns for his career. Walker is batting .175 in May dropping his average down to .266 overall. Before you complain you should realize he’s a career .272 hitter. This is who he is folks. He’s also seen his power evaporate after hitting nine homers in April. With 10 this season he’s only six short of his total from last year, the second most he’s ever hit in a season (23 in 2014). A great start he had, but he is what he is – a solid, non-exciting producer at second base.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).