WHO IS ADAM DUVALL?
I’ve been getting this question a lot late, so obviously I should answer it.
Adam Duvall is a 27 year old outfielder of the Reds. He hits righty, slugs righty actually, and has been on his game and then some of late. Check it out: over his last 12 games Adam is batting .390 with five homers, 10 RBI and 10 runs scored. Also sporting a .544 wOBA is he in that time. That’s a massive level of performance is it not?
Let’s look back before we move forward.
2010: He posted a .688 OPS over 54 games at Low-A.
2011: He appeared in 116 games at Single-A batting .285 with 22 homers and 87 RBI.
2012: In 134 games at High-A Duvall hit 30 big flies, drove in 100 runs and scored 101 times.
2013: In 105 games at Double-A he hit 17 homers with 58 RBI and a .785 OPS.
2014: Exploded at Triple-A batting .298 with 27 homers and 90 RBI… in 91 games. That .959 OPS was pretty sweet too.
2015: In 100 games at Triple-A he batting .281 with 26 homers and 80 RBI.
The guy has always hit with a .503 SLG and .841 OPS over 625 games in the minors. Always hit has he.
However, there were concerns that Duvall might be that AAAA player – too good for the minors but not good enough for the majors. The Giants never seemed willing to give him consistent work to figure that out, thought the Reds have determined that, with no better options, that they might as well let him roll daily and see what they have.
It seems they might have their new Jay Bruce.
Duvall has power, we’ve seen that, and he owns a 21.4 percent HR/FB ratio for his career. Given a 43 percent fly ball rate it’s totally possible that he hits 25 homers with every day work (he currently has 15 big flies in 246 career at-bats).
At the same time, he has no chance to continue to bat .284, his current mark, with a 31 percent K-rate (82 strikeouts in 266 plate appearances). As I say all the time, it’s extremely difficult to hit .250 with a K-rate of 28+ percent.
Duvall could, oddly enough, produce like Jay Bruce or Colby Rasmus. If that’s your need he might just be your guy.
GIVE UP ON CARLOS GOMEZ – IS IT TIME?
Carlos Gomez continues to stink, and everyone is growing impatient, even his team. GM Jeff Luhnow had this to say. "...it's hard to continue to play a player that isn't helping you win ballgames. Gomez certainly has had plenty of at-bats, and he's had a chance to help our club, and he's not performing the way he feels he should or we feel he should… We have to figure out a way to get some more W's on the board. So if it means changing who's starting and where the lineup is, those are decisions A.J. [Hinch] going to have to make.”
Yikes.
The problem is that the Astros have no one to really turn to. Jake Marisnick has three hits in 30 at-bats. Preston Tucker was batting .176 and was demoted as a result. Maybe Tony Kemp, just called up, will get some PT in the outfield? Kemp, who looks like Jose Altuve at 5’6”, 175 lbs, was batting .298 at Triple-A this season after hitting .273 there last season. He hit three homers last season and has no power, though he does have the speed to be a legit base stealer (35 steals last season in 121 games).
The best choice for the Astros still seems to be Gomez. Still, he’s third in baseball in K-rate (34.8 percent) and hasn’t hit a homer with only five RBI in 28 at-bats with runners in scoring position. In fact, Gomez hasn’t hit a homer this season and has stolen just five bases in seven attempts while batting .182 with a .486 OPS. In 2013-14 Gomez had a SLG that was higher than that. Talent only gets you so much playing time, you have to produce to stay in the lineup, and Gomez has not been doing that, at all. Over his last 149 games Gomez has hit .239 with a .298 OBP and .374 SLG, and that is league average crap. Actually, slightly worse than that if I’m being truth. He’s also only hit 12 homers while stealing 22 bases.
I think it’s in your best interest to keep Gomez on your squad. I’m not saying he should be in your starting lineup, he shouldn’t be, but on your roster he should be. You can turn to guys like Cameron Maybin or Jayson Werth if you want, but there’s still a lot of talent residing in the body of Gomez, though it’s clearly hidden under an immense pile of crapola.
EDITORS NOTE: Gomez was placed on the DL with a bruised rib cage after this article was wrote, further complicating his 2016 outlook.
DFS DIAMONDS
*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays.
CATCHER: Derek Norris has hit a homer while batting .346 with a .909 OPS against Madison Bumgarner over 27 plate appearances. In a career with more than 600 plate appearances against lefties Norris has an impressive .288/.361/.479 slash line.
FIRST BASE: Freddie Freeman has a .916 OPS on the road this season. Freeman has a .910 OPS at night this season. In 17 plate appearances against Juan Nicasio he has blasted away to the tune of four homers and a 2.397 OPS.
SECOND BASE: Jason Kipnis takes on Alfredo Simon who has looked like a pitching machine against lefties (.356/.420/.700). Meanwhile, Kipnis is hot with four outings in six games of at least two hits which includes two homers and five RBI.
THIRD BASE: Jake Lamb has ripped up righties with a .317/.390/.567 slash line this season with 17 RBI. Michael Pineda can’t get out lefties with a .347/.400/.513 slash line this season.
SHORTSTOP: Corey Seager has two hits in seven of his last 10 games and that effort includes seven hits, including three homers, his last three games. Jered Weaver allows lefties to post a .853 OPS with four homers this season.
OUTFIELD: Matt Holliday has six homers and a .574 SLG versus righties this season. Chad Bettis has allowed righties to bat .280 this season and over his last 18 innings he’s allowed 26 hits and 12 earned runs.
OUTFIELD: Avisail Garcia has four doubles his last seven games. He’s also in possession of a .820 OPS at home this season. Dallas Keuchel has allowed righties to bat .299 with a .380 OBP this season.
OUTFIELD: Seth Smith has a .385 OBP and .808 OPS against righties this season. Meanwhile, Ubaldo Jimenez is getting torched against lefties this season with a massive .371/.443/.519 slash line.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).