2016 Fantasy Baseball Player Profile: Sean Manaea

Sean Manaea is a 24 year old lefty of the Oakland Athletics. He brings with him a ton of size, he stands 6’5” and weighs in at 245 pounds, and he has an electric left arm in tow. One of the better pitching prospects in baseball, the Athletics will turn to Manaea this Friday due to a whole in their rotation. How good is Manaea? Will he be able to stick in the rotation? Is he better than some of the other young arms we’ve seen called up of late? I’ll dig into that, and more, in his Player Profile.

 
THE RANKINGS

Jose Berrios was called up earlier this week, and I broke him down in this Player Profile. It’s natural when two prospects are called up so close to one another to compare them. Here is what the experts think by a listing of overall player ranking coming into the 2016 season.

All three resources, and by substantial margins, favor Berrios over Manaea. We will get into why that is below.

Manaea wasn’t drafted out of high school due to concerns about his focus/drive (a laid back personality has hurt him a bit in the eyes of scouts). "My dad is a pretty chill dude and doesn't worry about things too much," Manaea said. "I guess I get that from him. I feel most other Samoans are like that." Manaea went to college before entering the 2013 Entry Draft where he fell to the 34^th player taken overall due to concerns about his hip (his arm dictated a higher slot). As a result of his hip issue he missed the entire 2013 season following surgery, meaning his first professional pitch didn’t occur until 2014. Manaea then missed time in 2015 with abdomen and groin issues. He doesn’t have a lot of innings on his arm as a professional, and clearly his body has betrayed him a bit at times.

THE NUMBERS

THE SKILLS

Most sources, including the Big-3 I listed above, all agree on the following: Manaea is not looked at as an “ace” in the big leagues. In fact, coming in to this season, on the 20-80 scouting scale, all three agree that Manaea is a 55. A fifty-five on the 80 point scale is an above average arm. Again, MLB, BP and BA all says that as of right now Manaea profiles as a slightly above average starter in the big leagues. Not elite, slightly above average. Those same sources suggest that if everything comes together he could be an SP2 in the bigs, but all the sources agree that it’s much more likely that he settles in as an SP4 type in the bigs. An SP4 in the bigs is the type of guy that you round out your fantasy staff with, not someone you spend all your FAAB to add in his rookie season.

Manaea throws an impressive fastball that can hit 96-97 mph when it all comes together, but the heater usually settles in at 92-94 mph. There’s some concern that Manaea can lose some velocity from start to start, and also that his velocity often dips later in games as the pitch count rises. There’s no debate that his fastball is his best pitch, one aided by a somewhat deceptive delivery that can hide the ball just that little bit that makes all the difference. You can see the nature of that pitch in terms of his massive strikeout totals in the minors.

Manaea also throws a slider, and there is some debate about this pitch. He doesn’t throw it has hard as you would think given his arm, and it can get a little slurvey at times. It’s not necessarily a hybrid curve/slider, but the pace of the pitch is slower than you would expect. In fact, Manaea seems to have the ability to add and subtract a bit with the pitch. Though that’s a plus, he does lack consistency with the pitch from start to start. Still, it’s a good pitch that should cause batters fits when he’s on.

Manaea also throws a changeup that has some late fade. He’s not refined with the pitch, but he continues to work diligently to improve it realizing he needs a third pitch he can count on if he hopes to be a top end starter at the big league level. The development of this pitch might be the key to his success.

Manaea can strike batters out, no doubt about that, though it’s clear from his 3.4 walk rate per nine in the minors that his control can leave him. This is a big concern for a young arm. If you can’t throw strikes...

Manaea could produce numbers anywhere from the Ian Kennedy level to Ubaldo Jimenez. That’s a pretty big spread.

PLAYING TIME

Manaea is being called up to start Friday against the Astros. Would the team have instead turned to Jesse Hahn if he wasn’t dealing with a blister? We honestly don’t know, but it’s something to consider. Also note that Henderson Alvarez is improving and the club hopes he will be able to start for the club at some point in May.

Will the A’s continue to run out there Manaea or will they send him back down quickly? It’s a question to seriously ponder, especially for the financially tightfisted Athletics. There’s playing time consideration to balance versus talent, and for teams without money the finances sometimes win out (I wrote about this possibility, of keeping a young potential star down, last week in an article about the Nationals’ Trea Turner).

Manaea might make 25 starts, if he can stay healthy long enough to get there, but he might also end up back in the minor leagues. It’s something you should at least consider before doing the all-in thing with Manaea.

CONCLUSION

Manaea is going to cost an awful lot to add this week. As you can tell, I favor Berrios if I was adding one of the two. Berrios is more polished, more athletic, healthier and throws more strikes. He’s also more likely, in my opinion, to make 25 starts in the bigs the rest of the way.

Manaea is worth an add if he’s out there. Note, however, that I tossed out names like Ian Kennedy and Ubaldo above. If he’s Ubaldo you will have blown a good deal of your FAAB budget, or your waiver priority, on a waiver-wire producer. If he’s Ian Kennedy you will take that, but realize Ian Kennedy isn’t worth a third of your FAAB budget.  For me, there are enough concerns with Manaea that I would be cautious with the lefty. I would bid half as much for him as I would for Berrios, and I wouldn’t be going all in to add Manaea either. There are too many concerns about Manaea’s health and control to get go all in.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).