ARCHER – THE SKY IS FALLING
Chris Archer posted 252 strikeouts last season with a 1.14 WHIP over 212 innings. He wasn’t drafted to be an ace this season, but he was taken, universally, as an SP2 (I think). He’s pitched like and SP13 to this point with an 0-4 record, 7.32 ERA and 2.08 WHIP. He’s been awful.
Last season Archer allowed 25 earned runs over 15 innings in three starts (he’s currently allowed 16 earned runs over 19.2 frames). Granted the outings last season weren’t all in a row, but still, he was terrible at times last season inside the goodness.
But it’s not just three outings we have to be concerned about. Over his last 14 outings Archer is 2-9 with a 5.49 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. That’s scary bad stuff. He’s also walked 4.56 batters per nine while allowing 1.40 homers per nine. That’s abysmal. About the only positives are the 10.64 K/9 rate and 3.71 xFIP, and it’s not like that second mark is exciting in the least. Really, for nearly half a season, he’s looked a lot like Ubaldo Jimenez a few years back.
Some quotes after another terrible outing Wednesday night (6 R, 3 BB, 5.1 IP). By the by, in 12 career starts against Archer the Red Sox have blasted him to the tune of a 5.52 ERA leading him to a 1-7 record. Against all other opponents Archer owns a 3.21 ERA.
"I'm not happy by any means," Archer said, "but nobody said this game was going to be easy. I'm going to continue to work hard, get better every single day, and I really trust and believe that I'll get past this. It's a tough stretch. ... I'm going to continue to believe in myself and my teammates continue to believe in me. I'm going to be better."
"You know what? [Archer] might just be in a little bit of a rut, and that's OK," said Cash. "Everybody goes through these ruts in their season, in their career, kind of like we're talking about some other guys. To me, [Archer's problem] goes back to the fastball -- being able to show that he can throw that where he needs to throw it," Cash said. "Give hitters a thought on two different pitches to decipher from rather than one."
Archer also blamed his slider for the struggles. It’s not the movement but the location of the pitch that have allowed hitters to crush him.
Let’s examine the slider.
According to Brooks Baseball his slider velocity in 2016 is the same as it was in 2015.
According to Fangraphs the movement on the slider is indeed the same as we’re used to seeing. The xMov (horizontal) of his slider is two tenths off last season and the zMov (vertical) is three tenths off. Sound like Archer is correct. Further data to support that position is seen in the 18.4 percent swinging strike rate that is just two points off last season and would be the second best mark of his career. All of that looks normal until… you look at the results, and they are ugly.
.524 BABIP (.310 last year)
.333/.391/.595 (.186/.232/.263 last year)
This season his slider is the third worst in baseball according to Weighted Slider Runs. Last year the pitch was the second best in baseball.
And this performance on the slider is what has everyone panicked. As crazed as people were to add Trevor Story they are as crazed to move on from Archer. You should have seen Twitter last night. Archer is trash. I’m going to drop Archer. Should I sell him for 70 cents on the dollar? Should I try an add him for 70 cents on the dollar? Then my personal favorite… he must be hurt. A couple of guys that I really respect were having a back and forth last night on Twitter about whether or not Archer was hurt. They both said something to the effect of ‘he can’t be this bad unless he’s hurt.’ The only problem with this is that Archer says he is healthy. His manager says he is healthy. His team says he is healthy. Velocity isn’t the final arbiter, but Archer’s velocity according to PITCHf/x is only down about a mile per hour on his fastball and as noted above his slider velocity is the same. Also pretty hard for me to believe that he would be throwing his slider as much as he is, his 37.4 percent mark is a point and half lower than last season but still the second most in baseball for a guy with 15 innings pitched, if he was injured.
Is Archer hurt? Possibly, but where is the obvious certainty with that line of thought? I spoke about this during the game last night.
Does he stink? Yes.
Is he a broken man? It’s too early to tell for sure.
So what do you do with Archer?
First off, I would wait 24 hours. Let’s see if some news bit comes down that changes our opinion on everything.
If nothing pops up I would recommend buying on Archer. I know folks are concerned about his health because of all the sliders, but there is no current data to support a diagnosis of injury. Doesn’t mean one isn’t there, but there isn’t data that I can pinpoint (saying his control is off could be a symptom of injury but it is not necessarily indicative of injury). When I say buy on Archer be smart about it. Don’t deal Corey Kluber for him but if you want to deal Mat Latos or Ian Kennedy for him have at it. Be smart. Don’t give up a huge piece to add him with his short-term future so murky.
If you own Archer it only makes sense to hold him. Why would you just bail at this point? Why sell an asset at its lowest point? Bench Archer, that’s a good plan at the moment. Deal him for Mat Latos or Ian Kennedy? Don’t be doing that.
We shall see…
DFS DIAMONDS
*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays. He will try to avoid the obvious, so you will rarely see the best of the best listed
CATCHER: Jonathan Lucroy has a hit in 5-of-6 games. He’s also posted a .809 OPS at home this season and has gone 4-for-9 against Ricky Nolasco who was crushed by righties last season (.872 OPS).
FIRST BASE: Eric Hosmer faces Mike Pelfrey who has allowed lefties the following slash line: .529/.571/.524. Hosmer is 4-for-10 against Pelfrey and is batting .326 against righties this season.
SECOND BASE: Ryan Goins is a nobody. He’s cheap, and there is no upside. He’s the bottom of the barrel add today though after going 9-for-23 against Chris Tillman. Goins was also passable last season against righties batting .261 with a .332 OBP.
THIRD BASE: Martin Prado is batting .474 with a homer in 19 at-bats against Max Scherzer. He’s also off to a strong start this season batting .326 with a .373 OBP and he’s ripped it up in day games (.364 average).
SHORTSTOP: Andrelton Simmons has a hit in 12-of-13 games. It’s been a lot of 1-for-4 stuff, but there it is. Simmons has only faced Danks three times but Danks hasn’t been able to get righties out at all this season (.324/.381/.452).
OUTFIELD: Michael Taylor faces Tom Koehler whom he has hit .313 against over 16 at-bats. Koehler is off to a rough start with a 6.30 ERA and 2.30 WHIP. Koehler has also been obliterated by lefties this season (.455/.538/.682).
OUTFIELD: Angel Pagan has a .346 average with a .909 OPS at home this season. He’s hit .309 over 84 games against the D’backs in his career. He’s hitting .375 with a .929 OPS against righties this season and faces Shelby Miller who has struggled.
OUTFIELD: Michael Saunders has two hits and two runs scored each of the last two games. He’s also walked in 3-straight outings and has exactly two hits in five of 10 games. He faces Chris Tillman.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).