Vincent Velasquez faced arguably the worst offense in baseball Thursday in the San Diego Padres. Still, when a guy throws a complete game against anyone you take notice (it was the first time he has thrown more than seven innings in a professional game). When that arm throws a shutout, even when it’s against the Padres, you take notice. When that effort includes 16 strikeouts, even when it’s against the Padres, you jump out of your seat, run to the wavier-wire, and check to see if that arm is available. Let’s break down who Velasquez is as we try to predict what reasonable expectations should be for the powerful righty.
A few notes about his historic start before I dig into Vincent.
Meghan Montemurro of The News Journal… Velasquez is the 7th pitcher ever with a complete game shutout that included 16 strikeouts and no walks.
From Joel Sherman… the last pitcher with as many strikeouts was Mark Prior who was 22 years old (Velasquez is 23 and 312 days).
Oh, and if you think I was exaggerating when I said the Padres were the worst offense in baseball, check out what Jayson Stark pointed out. The Padres have been shut out five times in 10 games, the first time in that has ever happened. Should be noted that while we think of 2016 as a “pitcher’s era” it’s really not in the context of history. In 2016 the OPS of all teams in baseball is .716, and that is one point above the league average of .715 since 1900. From 1907-1909 the league mark was under .619 each year (as an example of a true pitcher’s era). The Padres are historically bad.
MINOR LEAGUE NUMBERS
Velasquez came into the 2015 season as the 75th best prospect in baseball according to Baseball Prospectus and 86th according to MLB.com (he was not in the top-100 for Baseball America).
| W-L | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | IP |
2010 | 2-2 | 3.07 | 0.99 | 7.7 | 1.5 | 29.1 |
2012 | 4-1 | 3.35 | 1.18 | 10.1 | 3.4 | 45.2 |
2013 | 9-6 | 3.83 | 1.16 | 10.3 | 3.0 | 124.2 |
2014 | 7-5 | 3.68 | 1.18 | 12.9 | 3.5 | 63.2 |
2015 | 4-0 | 1.91 | 1.00 | 12.3 | 3.5 | 33.0 |
Career | 26-14 | 3.28 | 1.13 | 10.8 | 3.1 | 296.1 |
MAJOR LEAGUE NUMBERS
*These numbers do not include his 16 strikeout effort against the Padres.
| W-L | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | IP |
2015 | 1-0 | 4.37 | 1.28 | 9.38 | 3.40 | 55.2 |
2016 | 1-0 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 13.50 | 4.50 | 6.0 |
Career | 2-1 | 3.94 | 1.25 | 9.78 | 3.50 | 61.2 |
THE TRADE
On December 12, 2015 there was a huge deal between the Phillies and the Astros. As of this writing, and it’s too early to know for sure, the deal has been a massive win for the Phils.
Phillies Receive: Vincent Velasquez, Mark Appel, Brett Oberhotlzer, Thomas Eshleman and Harold Arauz.
Astros Receive: Ken Giles & Jonathan Arauz
I didn’t like it at the time for the Astros, and it’s looking even worse now.
THE SKILLS
Velasquez stands 6’3” and weighs in at 205 lbs. He throws right handed and is 23 years old (he will be 24 in June). He was also born in Montclair, California where I lived for three years, so he has to be a great guy.
Before I even get to the skills let’s address the #1 factor you need to understand with Vincent Velasquez. He has yet to prove he can take the ball every five days. Let’s look at his innings pitched marks per season since he became a professional.
| IP |
2010 | 29.1 |
2011 | Zero |
2012 | 45.2 |
2013 | 124.2 |
2014 | 63.2 |
2015 | 88.2 |
Seriously folks. I almost feel like I don’t even need to write the rest of this report, but I will, for you, because I care.
Velasquez strained a ligament in his arm and suffered a stress fracture as well in his junior year of high school. He had arm problems in high school folks.
Velasquez turned pro and then had his 2011 season wiped out by Tommy John surgery. Some will say ‘he’s already had the surgery so he is fine.’ Whatever. He threw 45.2 innings in 2011 and 2012 as a result of the injury/surgery.
In 2013 he threw 124.2 innings. That’s a career best. Five pitches threw more than that in the first half last season (Dallas Keuchel, Corey Kluber, Max Scherzer, Jeff Samardzija & David Price). Think about that. Five men in baseball threw more innings in half a season last year than Velasquez has ever thrown in a season in his life.
Another way to put it.
Velasquez has thrown more than 90-innings in a season ONCE. One time.
He cannot, and by that I mean c a n n o t stay healthy.
Even if he does stay healthy, how many innings will he be allowed to throw for a Phillies team that will not be playoff bound? In fact, it could be ugly this year in Philadelphia and if that does happen why on Earth would the Phillies let Velasquez rack up meaningless innings late in the year? Even if he stays healthy, I cannot see the Phils allowing him to throw more than 160-innings, MAX. I don’t know if they would even let him extend himself that far given that he didn’t even reach 90-innings last season.
If you’re in a H2H setup you have to think long and hard about counting on Velasquez. Odds are extremely high that he will not be available to pitch in September, even if he’s miraculously able to avoid the injury, which is something he’s never been able to do.
As for the skills…
Velasquez is a big time strikeout arm with a plus fastball and plus change up that falls off the proverbial table when he’s dealing. A strikeout an inning is totally doable. No question. Needs to sharpen up his curveball though as sometimes it “rolls” versus snapping sharply. If he can’t develop a third pitch it might be tough for him to sustain consistent success as a starting pitcher.
As for the walks, they are there too. As a professional he’s walked 3.5 batters per nine innings. That’s a half batter above the league average.
He also allows a few too many fly balls. In fact, a lot too many fly balls. At this point in his young big league career he has a 47.5 percent fly ball ratio but a mere 0.73 HR/9 mark. If he keeps allowing fly balls at .jpg)
that rate his homer total will explode. The good news is that his minor league mark was about 15 percentage points lower, even though his minor league HR/9 rate was also 0.7, so let’s hope this is a sample size thing with all the fly balls.
CONCLUSION
His team stinks meaning he won’t be getting much run support and likely won’t be picking up many “W’s.”
His ballpark favors hitter. Citizens Bank Park was 9th in baseball last season in Park Factors for runs.
He has never thrown 125-innings in his life.
He has two dynamic pitches but is lacking refinement from his third.
Vincent Velasquez has always been an elite talent. A second round draft pick, he would have been a first rounder if not for health woes in high school, Velasquez has always oozed talent though that has been offset by an absolutely abysmal track record of injury. As talented as he is you cannot trust him to take the ball 30 times this season. In fact, I would put the over under on starts at 17 this season. If he even gets to that level I would consider his season a success. Be cautious with Velasquez, dynamic arm and all.
Here's an audio clip where I discuss the Phillies' rotation.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).