Do you know how many shortstop eligible players went 10/10 last season? The group is smaller than you think. By my count there were seven such men: Carlos Correa, Ian Desmond, Marcus Semien, Jimmy Rollins, Alexei Ramirez, Francisco Lindor and Brad Miller. So why is it that when I suggest Miller could be a starting shortstop in mixed leagues this season that people just aren’t convinced?

MINORS

Brad Miller was the second pick in the second round of the 2011 Entry Draft.

The 6-foot-2, 200-lb Miller appeared in 219 minor league games – and he crushed it. In less than two full seasons he hit .334 with a .409 OBP and .516 SLG leading to a .925 OPS. Per 110 games he hit 15 homers with 11 steals flashing exciting fantasy skills. He also walked 113 times compared to 162 strikeouts proving that he really had nothing to gain from spending another moment on the farm.

MAJORS

2013: Appeared in 76 games as a rookie hitting .265 with eight homers, five steals, 36 RBIs and 41 runs scored.

2014: Saw action in 123 games going deep 10 times with four steals. He slumped to a sickly .221 with a .653 OPS.

2015: Rebounded somewhat hitting .258 with a three year best .329 OBP. He hit 11 homers, stole 13 bases, drove in 46 runs and scored 44 times for the Mariners.

This offseason the Rays and Mariners worked out the following trade sending Miller to the team from Tampa: Rays acquired SS Brad Miller, OF/1B Logan Morrison and RHP Danny Farquhar from the Mariners for RHP Nate Karns, LHP C.J. Riefenhauser and OF Boog Powell.

POWER / SPEED

As I noted above, Miller was a very solid middle infield option in the minors with his power/speed combo. Neither measure jumped out in any appreciable way, but guys who go 15/11 in two-thirds of a season bare monitoring, you would agree with that right?

As a rookie his 150-game pace would have equated to 16 homers and 10 steals. Pretty damn close to that minor league level, right?

He stunk in 2014.

In 2015 the steals returned though as he hit 11 homers with 13 thefts.

Should be obvious what I’m suggesting. I’m putting out there that a 15/10 season, or a 10/15 season, is possible given Miller’s talents as well as his established level of production. At least you could say if he reached either of those two milestones it wouldn’t be shocking. I hope you can at least give me that.

Miller owns a .147 Isolated Power mark and .394 SLG for his career. Those numbers suggest that a run to 15 homers will be a challenge. Not that it’s impossible, but it would seem like the high water mark when we take a look at two more measures. (1) Miller owns a 9.9 HR/F ratio for his career. Couldn’t be more average than that. (2) His career fly ball rate is 33.9 percent. Couldn’t be more average than that. The only way Miller can legitimately be penned as a 15-homer bat in 2016 is if he racks up 500 plus at-bats.

THE BAT

Miller doesn’t walk much, but he also isn’t one of those scary bad contact guys we often run into. Miller owns a slightly better than league average 0.42 BB/K ratio and his 10.1 career swinging strike rate is only slightly above the league average.

Miller has a 1.35 GB/FB ratio for his career.

Miller has a 20.3 percent line drive rate.

Both of those measures are league average (the ground ball rate is a bit above the 1.10 league average). Nothing stands out here.

Miller has, you guessed it, another league average mark in BABIP at .291 for his career.

Nothing is standing out here.

Let’s dig deeper.

Miller has been a league average bat against righties in his career: .256/.327/.429. Unfortunately, that means his numbers against lefties aren’t that impressive: .226/.273/.302. That brings up the possibility that Miller could be platooned in 2016. The Rays would like to use him daily, so even if they don’t have a full on platoon situation here, it’s likely that Miller will at least sit against elite lefties. He just doesn’t hit them.

COUNTING CATEGORIES

Per 550 at-bats, Miller has averaged 15 homers, 64 RBI and 66 runs scored. Boring numbers? Sure. But let me ask you. How many shortstops hit all three of those marks in 2015? The answer is four: Tulowitzki, Brandon Crawford, Ian Desmond and Jhonny Peralta. That’s it. Add in the 11 steals that Miller has averaged and the list would shrink to only Ian Desmond. That’s it.

THE GLOVE

The Rays plan on using Miller as their everyday shortstop as of this writing, but as we’ve seen with a guy like Ben Zobrist, they are willing to move around the field a talented player.

Miller enters the year with the following games played marks from 2015:

89 games at short

41 games in the outfield

11 games at second

2 games at third

The above means he should qualify at shortstop and the outfield in virtually every league. In some setups, where 10 games and not 20 is the minimum, he should also qualify at second base. That flexibility should be worth an extra buck or two, or round or two, at the draft table. 

 

Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2016 MLB Draft Guide which includes more than 600 Players Ranked, auction values, rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well as all the info you need if you’re ready to start playing DFS.

 

 

 

 

OUTLOOK

The shortstop position is a mess. We’ve got elite talents with little track record (Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor) or virtually none (Corey Seager). We’ve got injury prone talents (Troy Tulowitzki). We have uninspiring young-vets (Elvis Andrus, Starlin Castro). We’ve got power guys with no average or speed (Brandon Crawford, Jhonny Peralta). The bottom line is that we simply don’t have much certainty at this position with makes a player like Miller, as average as he looks, as a potentially nice option because of his power/speed combo and defensive eligibility. Think Asdrubal Cabrera. Boring, but effective.

10-team Mixed: Nothing other than a bench round add here. As much as I’m a fan of his double-digit potential in HR/SB, his RBI/Runs marks are nothing special, and it’s hard to envision him pushing his average much higher than the .265 mark he posted as a rookie.

12-team Mixed: If waiting at shortstop, and frankly I think that makes a lot of sense given the player pool this season, Miller makes a fine target. Honestly, you tell me the difference between Miller, ACab, Alexi Ramirez etc. is? You might like one of those options over another, but it’s not like any of them have a skillset that significantly distances themselves for the other. What choosing Miller does is allow you to build strength at your other positions as Miller might end up being taken rounds after some of the other more well-known games at the position. Remember Miller’s pedigree and flexibility in the later rounds. That should at least keep you interested even if you’re not all in.

15-team Mixed: I’m fine letting others chase at shortstop, as I’ve stated, so I would gladly leave the draft with Miller as my starter at shortstop in this format. If I did add Miller, I would most likely make sure to roster another shortstop to give me some coverage (guys like Jean Segura and Marcus Semien seem likely decent options). I believe Miller has a shot to be a top-15 shortstop, but I’m not blind to the holes in his game which make adding another shortstop eligible player a must.

AL-Only: Positional flexibility is Miller’s hallmark calling card here. Doesn’t matter much if he’s a .250 hitter in this format where there is a dearth of weaponry to call up at shortstop. There can’t be more than five or six shortstops that are a lock to rack up 500 at-bats and perform more effectively with a bat in their hands in the Junior Circuit. Seems like nearly every option is limited in some respect. I’m taking a shot on Miller given the cheap cost. Will you?

 

To see where Miller ranks take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).