2015 Fantasy Baseball Positional Reviews: Starting Pitchers
Published: Oct 13, 2015
Ray Flowers breaks down each position as the 2015 baseball season has reached its conclusion. Here are links to all of the individual breakdowns.
- Rankings from March
STARTING PITCHER
| Rank | Tier | Player | Team | 10 Team ($) | 12 Team ($) | 15 Team ($) |
| 1 | 1 | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 41 | 37 | 36 |
| 2 | 1 | Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 35 | 34 | 33 |
| 3 | 1 | Max Scherzer | Nationals | 32 | 30 | 30 |
| 4 | 1 | David Price | Blue Jays | 32 | 30 | 30 |
| 5 | 1 | Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 31 | 29 | 29 |
| 6 | 2 | Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 28 | 26 | 27 |
| 7 | 2 | Cole Hamels | Rangers | 27 | 26 | 27 |
| 8 | 2 | Zack Greinke | Dodgers | 27 | 26 | 26 |
| 9 | 2 | Corey Kluber | Indians | 25 | 24 | 25 |
| 10 | 2 | Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | 24 | 23 | 24 |
| 11 | 2 | Johnny Cueto | Royals | 23 | 22 | 23 |
| 12 | 2 | Chris Sale | White Sox | 23 | 22 | 23 |
| 13 | 3 | James Shields | Padres | 19 | 20 | 19 |
| 14 | 3 | Jon Lester | Cubs | 19 | 20 | 19 |
| 15 | 3 | Sonny Gray | Athletics | 18 | 19 | 17 |
| 16 | 3 | Gerrit Cole | Pirates | 18 | 19 | 17 |
| 17 | 3 | Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | 18 | 18 | 16 |
| 18 | 3 | Julio Teheran | Braves | 17 | 17 | 14 |
| 19 | 3 | Jeff Samardzija | White Sox | 17 | 17 | 14 |
| 20 | 3 | Chris Archer | Rays | 16 | 17 | 14 |
| 21 | 3 | Alex Wood | Dodgers | 15 | 16 | 13 |
| 22 | 3 | Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | 15 | 16 | 12 |
| 23 | 3 | Lance Lynn | Cardinals | 14 | 15 | 11 |
| 24 | 3 | Tyson Ross | Padres | 13 | 15 | 10 |
| 25 | 3 | Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 13 | 14 | 10 |
BUSTS
Honestly, while there were a bunch of guys who didn’t quite live up to their preseason rankings, only a couple failed that were in the top 25.
Adam Wainwright didn’t throw a pitch that counted as a starter all year long. Glad he was my top-drafted arm in a couple of leagues...
Julio Teheran had won 14 games with an ERA of about 3.00 in each of the 2013 and 2014 seasons. In 2015 he fell to 11-8 with a 4.04 ERA while seeing his WHIP surge to 1.31 (the mark was barely over 1.10 in 2013-14). The homer was an issue, he gave up five more while throwing 20 fewer innings than in 2014, and he also saw his walk rate rise over more than a full batter per nine.
Jeff Samardzija won a career-best 11 games, seriously, but that was all the good. For the fourth straight season he lost exactly 13 games, his ERA was nearly five (4.96) and his strikeout rate fell precipitously to 6.86 per nine (he whiffed more than a batter per inning 2013-14). A career 45 percent ground ball rate fell all the way to 40 percent in ‘15.
Alex Wood won 12 games with 189.2 innings pitched. The 1.80 GB/FB ratio was impressive, but that was it. His ratios were league-average stuff (3.84 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) and his strikeout rate fell from 8.91 over his first 66 outings to 6.60 per nine in 2015.
Gio Gonzalez had a 3.79 ERA, just off his 3.62 career mark, but the rest was blah. His WHIP was 1.42, a six-year high, and his 8.66 K/9 mark was a five-year low as his 3.54 BB/9 rate was a four-year high as well. At least he had a 54 percent ground ball rate.
SURPRISES
Shelby Miller (ranked 26th) – just wanted to let you know I had him ranked higher than anyone else (I think).
Andrew Cashner (33rd) failed to hit 6.80 in his K/9 rate the last two years but he jacked up that mark to 8.04 this season. About the only good. Oh, he also threw 184.2 innings, a career best. Walk rate exploded to 3.22 per nine, his HR/9 rate up to 0.93 and his WHIP was 1.44 with a 4.34 ERA. Ugh.
Yordano Ventura (35th) was up and down all year long and hurled only 163.1 innings. K/9 rate was way up at 8.60 and his 52 percent ground ball rate was fantastic. The walk rate was 3.20, worse than league average, and his 1.30 WHIP was a deal, on match for the league mark. That 4.08 ERA? Yeah, you know the deal. Great arm, poor work overall.
Phil Hughes (36th) predictably fell way off his 2014 performance. He won five fewer games, his ERA went up nearly a full run to 4.40, his WHIP was league average at 1.29 and he walked just 16 batters for the second straight season, but his strikeout rate fell all the way down to 5.45 per nine. Yikes.
Anibal Sanchez (37th) missed his career ERA of 3.70 by miles (4.99). His 1.28 WHIP was passable, but after posting a mark of 1.13 the previous two seasons… His 2.81 BB/9 ratio was solid, but the mark had been under 2.22 two of previous three seasons. His 1.66 HR/9 mark was nutso high. It was DOUBLE his career mark.
Mat Latos (40th), for the first time, was a total disaster: 4.95 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 116.1 innings pitched. That’s two years in arrow with less than 120 innings pitched. His health makes him a total wild card.
Jacob deGrom (42nd) was terrific as a rookie. He was stupendous in his second season. He wasn’t Arrieta/Greinke/Kershaw good, but he was awfully close: 2.54 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 9.66 K/9 and a 5.39 K/BB ratio.
Drew Smyly (43rd) made only 12 starts as his shoulder bothered him all season. The results, in just 66.2 innings, were impressive: 3.11 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 10.40 K/9.
Chris Tillman (44th) was a stable option in 2013-14, a nice round-out-the-rotation kinda arm. Just didn’t happen in 2015: 11-11, 4.99 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 6.24 K/9.
Wily Peralta (47th) fell from 17 wins to five, 198.2 innings to 108.2, 3.53 ERA to 4.72, 1.30 WHIP to 1.54 and 6.98 K/9 to 4.97. Not much else needs to be said.
Francisco Liriano (49th) almost made it to 190 innings at 186.2. That’s the second-highest mark of his career. He won 12 games and faded late, as usual, but his overall effort was pretty impressive: 3.38 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 9.88 K/9.
Dallas Keuchel (55th) made me look like a fool. I may not have been more incorrect about any player in 2015 than this lefty. NO ONE thought he would be this good, though. In the end, he might win the Cy Young Award: 20 wins, 2.48 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 8.38 K/9, 1.98 BB/9, 62 percent ground ball rate.
Shane Greene (65th) – boom goes the dynamite on this one. #EpicFailure
Scott Kazmir (78th) tanked in the second half yet again. He won only seven games but still had solid ratios in any format (3.10 ERA, 1.21 WHIP). Given the cost, totally fine. But oh that second half was dicey for a second straight season.
Carlos Martinez (81st) wore down and was ultimately dealt an issue with his shoulder but that doesn’t take away from an impressive first full season (14 wins, 3.01 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 9.22 K/9).
Jason Hammel (87th) had a 3.74 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 172 strikeouts in 170.2 innings. Given the cost, a great effort.
Danny Salazar (92nd) – always loved the arm. Always. I had him inside the top 40 until he was demoted and it looked like he would spend months in the minors. In the end, he was fantastic – 14 wins, 3.45 ERA, 1.13 WHIP 195 strikeouts in 185 innings.
Noah Syndergaard (105th) made 24 starts and boy were the results impressive for the rookie as he had a 3.24 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 166 strikeouts over 150 innings. As impressive was the fact that he walked just 31 batters.
Kyle Hendricks (111th) pumped up his K/9 rate by three full batters to 8.35. No one does that. He still walked only 2.15 batters per nine and had a 51 percent ground ball rate. If he keeps pitching like that his 3.95 ERA is going to come down.
J.A. Happ (120th) crushed it with the Pirates. I have no idea how, but he did. In the end he made a career-best 31 starts over a career-high 172 innings. A 3.61 ERA and 1.27 WHIP even were solid. Shocked? So was I.
Erasmo Ramirez (137th) last 26 outings were border line All-Star levels: 11-5, 3.02 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 1.94 BB/9 and 47 percent ground ball rate.
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