Drew Smyly is 25 years old, left handed, and stands 6'3" while weighing 190 lbs. He's been in the big leagues for three years now - two as a starter one as a reliever - and he's pretty much had success the entire time. His individual pitches may not rank as elite offerings, but his overall game to this point of his career has been pretty much all pluses. Let's explore Smyly and try to determine how much faith we should be placing in his left arm.

THE MINORS

2010: Drafted in the second round by the Tigers after spending time at the University of Arkansas . 

2011: Pitched 126 innings between High-A and Double-A. Went 11-6 with a 2.07 ERA, 1.10 WHIP with 130 punchouts an a 3.61 K/BB ratio.

2012: MLB.com ranked him as the 82nd best prospect in baseball. Made seven starts with a 6.11 ERA, 1.70 WHIP and 12.7 K/9 mark at Triple-A.

TOTALS: 11-8, 2.57 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 3.52 K/BB over 143.2 innings 

THE MAJORS

2012: Made 18 starts out of 23 appearances with the Tigers. Won four games against three loses as he posted a 3.99 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over 99.1 innings. Struck out 8.5 batters per nine. 

2013: Tigers switched him to the bullpen, and he dominated. Drew made 63 relief appearances striking out 81 batters in 76 innings. He also walked just 17 batters leading to an overly impressive 4.76 K/BB ratio. 

2014: Traded as part of a 3-team trade by the Detroit Tigers with Willy Adames (minors) to the Tampa Bay Rays. The Detroit Tigers sent Austin Jackson to the Seattle Mariners. The Tampa Bay Rays sent David Price to the Detroit Tigers. The Seattle Mariners sent Nick Franklin to the Tampa Bay Rays. Smyly went 9-10 with a 3.24 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 3.17 K/BB ratio over 25 starts and 28 outings. Kept the walk rate down as well at 2.47 per nine.

THE SKILLS

Much like another hurler who was reviewed in this series - Mike Fiers (click on this link for his Player Profile) - Smyly doesn't blow you away with his stuff. Much like Fiers, again, the results seem to suggest that doesn't matter. 

Smyly throws his fastball 53 percent of the time at a pace of 90-91 mph. The lefty is far from intimidating with the pitch, but it works. For his career he's allowed a .262 batting average on the pitch while surrendering an 18.8 percent line drive rate and 7.6 HR/F ratio. Guys don't take the pitch deep often, and they aren't shooting rockets all over the field off it either. 

Smyly changed things up a bit last season as well. After throwing his cutter 29 percent of the time in 2013 - when he worked out of the bullpen - he went back to throwing the pitchr about 16 percent of the time. Where did he make up the difference? Smyly ended up doubling his curveball/slider percentage from 14 percent in 2013 to 28 percent in 2014. That pitch helped him to add more separation in velocity - 91 for the fastball and 78 for the off-speed pitch - so that he now sites in pretty much the ideal spot in terms of pitch speed differential (most will say 10-12 mph is ideal). Using this pitch more is a great idea too as it's been a wipeout pitch for Smyly. His K-rate on the pitch is 34.4 percent and batters have posted an OPS of .539 against it. Throw that pitch DS!

So let's get to the overall results. Through 328.1 big league innings Smyly has struck out 8.44 batters per nine. That's influenced by his work in the bullpen, so what about as a starter? Try on for size a solid 7.99 per nine (as an RP it's 9.69). We can live with eight punchouts per nine innings, right? What about the walks? The good news there is that he's actually been a tab better as a starter (2.50 per nine) than reliever (2.59). The result is a 3.19 K/BB ratio as a starting pitcher. Here are the only lefties in baseball who had a K/BB ratio of better than 3.19 in 2015 (minimum 162 IP): Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Chris Sale, Madison Bumgarner, Jon Lester, Wei-Yin Chen, Jose Quintana, Cole Hamels and Scott Kazmir. 

Speaking of lefties, Smyly has oodles of success against them. For his career here are the numbers: 9.51 K/9, 1.68 BB/9, 0.72 HR/9 with a .191/.233/.303 slash line. Domination is the word that comes to mind. Not like he's getting steamrolled against righties either: 7.89 K/9, 2.96 BB/9, 1.04 HR/9 with a .255/.317/.433 slash line.

So we've got a lefty with a solid approach, strong strikeout and walk totals, and a growing reliance on a pitch that seems to be working. All good stuff. Let's now hit on the negative (gotta be fair and balanced... I've heard that somewhere before).

Smyly will likely have an innings cap. He'll be 26 in June, but he simply doesn't have big innings on his arm. Since throwing his first professional pitch...

2011: 126 innings
2012: 117 innings
2013: 76 innings
2014: 153 innings
* Note that the 76 inning effort in 2013 was because the Tigers moved him to the bullpen.

How many innings will the Rays let him throw this season --- 185? Hard to envision a scenario in which he throws 200. That may or may not matter, but I would be remiss not to point this out. It matters a ton in certain setups. In roto, you roll with it. In a H2H format it could be an issue. Do the Rays limit his pitches/innings per start? Do they skip a start here or there? Do they shut him down early? If they shut him down early, and you're in the fantasy playoffs in your H2H setup, that could be an issue. 

I'm also not in love with his 0.93 GB/FB ratio. It's not likely to be a killer from what we have seen thus far, but it's also not worthy of a check in the plus column either. He's managed to keep the homers in check with a 0.93 HR/9 and 9.5 HR/F mark so I'm not overly concerned, though I will be watching.

As for his line drive rate we find a 19.2 percent mark.
His BABIP is .286.
Both those numbers are average type of stuff and portend no worry.

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PLAYING TIME CONSIDERATIONS

Alex Cobb, Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi (Player Profile) appeared locked in as the top-3 arms with the Rays. The team hopes that Matt Moore will be back from elbow surgery in June to fill one of the rotation spots. That leaves two open spots on Opening Day and one for the season. Smyly will fill that role. The only way that he doesn't is if he is hurt or implodes early in the year. At least we should feel confident that the second thing won't happen. 

CONCLUSION

Smyly is a nice option in virtually every league in 2015. He strikes batters out, usually doesn't beat himself, and for the most part does a good job keeping hitters off balance. There are questions about his innings count, and whether or not he can improve against right-handed batters, but it seems like he took steps to correct the righty issue last season by using his off-speed pitches more. Smyly may not impress with dominating performances or 96 mph heat, but there's little reason to think that this "pitcher" won't be able to have success in the coming campaign. 

10 team lg: Take him late. His skills suggest continued success, but there's unlikely to be much growth. In a league this shallow that means you take Smyly no early then the middle of a draft, most likely more toward the reserve rounds. 

12 team lg: Targeting him to be my SP4/5 and happy as all get out if that happens. 

15 team lg: A sneaky play that could outproduce plenty of arms taken before him. The move to Tampa might help, no one ever sees that team play, and the fact that Smyly has been jerked around between the bullpen and rotation in his young career surpasses his numbers, at least to this point of his career. If he throws those 180-innings you'll be happy you rostered him.

AL-only: A spot in the rotation. Check. Solid strikeout totals. Check. Lack of concern about ratios. Check. I seen no reason why not to invest heavily in Smyly in this format.