Shelby Miller is better than you think. He certainly hasn't reached the heights of some of the other young arms that came into the league with his level of hype, but at the same time he's made 62 starts the past two seasons with a high level of success for one as inexperienced as he. Can he reach all-star levels in 2015 in his first season in the land of pitching in Atlanta?
THE MINORS
2009: Drafted in the 1st round, 19th overall by the Cardinals. Pitched two games at Single-A as an 18 year old.
2010: Baseball America ranked him as the 50th best prospect in baseball. Baseball Prospectus had him 38th. Saw action covering 24 starts and 104.1 innings at Single-A. He struck out 140 batters over 104.1 innings as he posted a 7-5 record to go along with a 3.62 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.
2011: Baseball America ranked him as the 13th best prospect in baseball. Baseball Prospectus had him 15th. Went 11-6 at High-A and Double-A in 25 starts over 139.2 innings. He had a 2.77 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 170 punchouts.
2012: Baseball America ranked him as the 8th best prospect in baseball. Baseball Prospectus had him 10th. MLB.com had hit 5th. Went 11-10 over 136.2 innings for the Cardinals Triple-A affiliate. Struck out 160 batters with a 4.74 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.
2013: Baseball America ranked him as the 6th best prospect in baseball. Baseball Prospectus had him 16th. MLB.com had hit 25th.
TOTALS: 29-21, 3.73 ERA, 1.28 WHIP with a 11.1 K/9 over 78 starts and 383.2 innings
THE MAJORS
2012: As a 21 year old rookie he pitched in six games making one start for the Cardinals. Went 1-0 with 16 strikeouts over 13.2 innings.
2013: Won 15 games against nine loses. Posted a 3.06 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 173.1 innings. Struck out 169 batters.
2014: Regressed to 10-9 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over 32 outings (31 starts). Miller lasted 183 innings with a mere 127 strikeouts.
THE SKILLS
Did you notice the above? In case you missed it, let me reiterate it for you. According to the top-3 places we look to review the talents of rookies, Miller wasn't just a solid prospect, he wasn't merely an impressive Cardinals prospect, he was an elite prospect in all of baseball. On the 2013 Baseball Prospectus list he was ranked 6th in all of baseball amongst every talent in every league in the minors. The #5 man was Jose Fernandez and #7 was Gerrit Cole. Zack Wheeler was 11th. The fact is that not long ago Miller was looked at as not just a future all-star but a future #1 big league starter, an ace if you will. So why does no one look at him like that now? Let's explore.
Wait, before we do that, I really want you to focus on the above again. CAPS to reinforce.
MILLER WAS A TOP-10 PROSPECT IN ALL OF BASEBALL in 2013.
Has Miller lived up to that hype? No, but has he really started his career that slowly? Here are his numbers through 69 games.
He's won 26 games.
His ERA is 3.33. The league average is 3.70.
His WHIP is 1.23. The league average is 1.27.
His K/9 is 7.59. The league average is 7.43.
His K/BB ratio is 2.33. The league average is 2.53.
His hits per nine is 7.81. The league average is 8.46.
Overall he's been better than average. The numbers prove it. Here's the real problem. We have zero patience for players anymore. If a player struggles we move on to the next flavor of the month. Admit it. You do it all the time.
Here are the starts to the career's of some pretty fair hurlers. Did you give up on them when they started slowly?
Corey Kluber first 41 games: 13-10, 4.32 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
Jon Lester first 60 games: 27-8, 3.81 ERA, 1.39 WHIP
Johnny Cueto first 61 games: 20-25, 4.61 ERA, 1.39 WHIP
Adam Wainwright first 95 games: 16-13, 3.61 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
Zack Greinke first 57 games: 13-28, 4.99 ERA, 1.39 WHIP
Max Scherzer first 77 games: 21-26, 3.69 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
Shelby Miller first 62 games: 26-18, 3.33 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
See what I'm talking about? Only one of the above arms had more wins than Miller, NONE had a better ERA and NONE had a better WHIP. Did you give up on any of those first six arms after early career "struggles?" If you did it was a huge mistake.
Patience is a virtue. Someone said that once be it Chaucer or the Piers Plowman poem likely written by William Langland. Sorry, nerding out.
Don't give up on Miller for his "perceived" struggles. That's the moral of this story. They aren't even real for the most part. The last two years...
Miller has 25 victories. That's the same total as Mr. Cueto and Mr. Price and more than Yu Darvish (23), Chris Sale (23), Stephen Strasburg (22) etc.
Miller has a 3.41 ERA. That's better than Jered Weaver (3.45), Gio Gonzalez (3.45) and Jeff Samardzija (3.66).
Miller has a 1.24 WHIP. That's better than Phil Hughes (1.26), Francisco Liriano (1.26) and Lance Lynn (1.29).
Starting to see what I'm saying with Miller?
As a rookie in 2013 Miller won 15 games with a 3.06 ERA and 169 Ks in 173.1 innings. That's nearly the ace we all expected given his pedigree. In 2014 he regressed to 10 victories, a 3.74 ERA and 6.25 strikeouts per nine innings. What happened?
His first half stunk in certain respects. Miller posted a 3.15 ERA in April but then had marks of 4.94, 4.38, 4.30 and 4.35 before he finished strong with a 1.48 ERA in September. Putting a bow on it he had an ERA of 4.29 before the break and 2.92 in 74 innings after it. Pretty easy to see why the first half struggles hit.
1st half: 6.03 K/9, 4.46 BB/9, 1.47 WHIP, 22 percent line drive rate
2nd half: 6.57 K/9, 2.31 BB/9, 0.99 WHIP, 15 percent line drive rate.
Let's compare some of his season long work to his brief career baseline.
2014: 0.97 GB/FB, 19.0 line drive, 9.9 HR/F
career: 0.95 GB/FB, 19.5 line drive, 9.7 HR/F
Dead on like William Tell.
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Not everything was rosie though.
2014: 6.25 K/9, 3.59 BB/9
career: 7.59 K/9, 3.26 BB/9
When you lose strikeouts an add walks, no one is gonna be happy with that.
The strikeout dip is substantial. During his minor league career Miller whiffed 11.1 batters per nine innings. Over his first 187 big league innings he punched out 185 batters. Last season he only picked up 127 strikeouts in 183 innings. A one year dip or something more serious?
In 2013 his fastball velocity was 93.5 mph.
In 2014 his fastball velocity was 93.4 mph.
In 2013 his swinging strike rate on fastballs was 9.9 percent.
In 2014 his swinging strike rate on fastballs was 7.7 percent.
In 2013 the OPS he allowed on his fastball was .696.
In 2014 the OPS he allowed on his fastball was .673.
His swinging strike rate was down a bit, and I'm a bit concerned with that. Still, given Shelby's stuff, pedigree, and first year success in St. Louis, I'm willing to cut him a bit of slack. He will need a rebound there for the strikeouts to return. Clearly though the loss of punchouts has nothing to do with velocity. Better location with his heater is key. The lack of control also led to the increase in walks. Combine the two categories together and his strong 2.96 K/BB ratio in 2013 fell to an unpalatable 1.74 in 2014.
This brings up something important. As of right now Miller is still basically a one pitch guy. You can do that out of the pen, but it's very hard to have consistent success as a stater relying so heavily on one pitch. His fastball was thrown 71 percent of the time in 2013 and 72 percent of the time in 2014. He thrown a cutter and change up a couple of times a game, an he's posted a 19 percent curve ball rate the past two seasons. He needs to refine, and then trust, those secondary offerings. Look at the OPS he has allowed in his young career on each pitch. Note that his slow stuff still needs work.
.624 OPS on curveball
.673 OPS on fastball
.873 OPS on changeup
Miller has been working on a sinker that he honed when Justin Masterson showed up in town showing Miller a new way to grip the ball (Masterson being one of the best sinker ballers in all of baseball). Is it a coincidence that Miller posted an ERA of 2.08 over his final seven starts after learning the new grip? You decide.
PLAYING TIME CONSIDERATIONS
Obviously he will be slotted into the rotation, likely in the 3rd or 4th spot behind Julio Teheran, Mike Minor and Alex Wood. Miller will be looked at to make 30+ starts in 2015.
CONCLUSION
Shelby Miller is a victim of two things. (1) His own hype. (2) A bit of a down 2014. As we've seen, Miller's first couple of big league seasons compare very favorably to many of the top arms in the game - if not outright superior. The loss of strikeouts with the rising walk rate must be noted and cataloged, but the preponderance of the evidence would seem to suggest that Miller will be able to not only match, but likely exceed, his draft day cost in 2015.
10 team lg: You will almost certainly be able to add Miller in the reserve rounds in this setup. If that's the case why not take the plunge. There are always plenty of arms on waivers if he doesn't find his groove in his new home.
12 team lg: A target of mine in the middle rounds. Others will be scrambling to take some rookie that will make 13 starts this year or some young player on the offensive side of the game that they think will be able to "blow up" in 2015. As we see year after year, that blow up is often in the owners face and not on the score sheet.
15 team lg: Buying low on a pitcher who is young, has good stuff, and has had solid success at the big league level is never a bad idea. It's certainly not a bad move in a league where people will be taking all kinds of fliers on arms once the rounds hit the drinking age.
NL-only: At the right cost, of course. Don't pay $20 or spend a 5th round pick on Miller, but unless you're in a league in Georgia, you simply won't have to. If his strikeouts return then he will have the potential to be an SP2/3. Even if they don't, he's still someone who should impact your club in a positive way.