Why No Top-Whatever List?

Resistance is futile, yet every year I resist. 

Let's play a game.

Scenario.

You're out at the bar Friday night and you feel the inexorable pull calling your name. You know you've had one too many Fuzzy Navels, but you see a hot brunette walk into the bar by herself. You order a shot of Fireball, pull back on it (boy, is that yummy), and head over to the hottie, knowing full well you're likely to make a fool of yourself now that you're all hopped up on cinnamon whiskey. There's always a chance. 

My constitution is stronger than that. I wish it wasn't, but I've always been blessed with the ability to withhold earthly pleasures from my sphere if need be (what a great superpower, the ability to turn down pleasure). I'm also not afraid to step out on a ledge all by my lonesome—more of a leader than a follower, really—so while everyone else is doing what everyone else does, I resist. And so should you. Let's apply this line of thought to fantasy baseball.

There will be no top-100, top-200, top-250, top-500 or whatever list in this Draft Guide. Nearly all Guides have that article, but I personally believe that the lists are about as exciting as talking backup catchers with a football fan. Exactly. Here's why you won't see a top-whatever list in this Guide and why you shouldn't be using one, even if you think you should.

I never use a top-whatever list to put a team together on draft day. Never. I think it’s a terrible way to construct a squad. What generally happens is that people check out mentally and simply slavishly draft off the list. Something like this often occurs for those using such a system. 

If player #119 is there, you obviously draft him over player #152, because he’s listed so much earlier in the overall rankings. Never mind the fact that player #119 may not be a fit for your team as it’s currently constructed. Maybe you need some base stealing prowess and player #152 gives you that, whereas player #119 is a power bat you don't really have a need for. The top-whatever list dictates that taking the higher ranked player is the correct move, so people obviously draft the highest ranked player from the list. These same people then wonder why their team finishes in last place in steals and why they don't have a balanced fantasy squad. Were the preseason rankings wrong? Is the Oracle an idiot? Of course neither of those can be it. (By the way, that's my nickname in the fantasy world, the Oracle. Contrary to reports, I don't have a huge ego. OK, maybe I do.) The reason these poor saps didn't perform well is because they drafted their team based on a top-whatever list versus putting together a club that could compete in all categories. It's more important to construct a balanced team in some cases than it is to merely draft the “best” team on paper—especially if you're playing in a rotisserie format. Remember that. You need to take into account which categories and positions you are in need of and draft using that template. Context is everything. 

Let me ask you a question to further illustrate why a top-whatever list simply isn't doing you any favors. 

Let's assume there are eight options at first base and eight at third base that you trust to start for your squad. As your draft rolls along, it's your turn to make a selection in the 6th round, and you notice that of the eight first basemen you really want, seven are taken while at third base, only five players have been drafted. In this scenario, wouldn't you be better off taking the first baseman, the last guy you would want as a starter, with your pick and then look to grab the third sacker in the next round. That makes sense, right?

However, what if the #8 first baseman is ranked 105th in your top-whatever list, while third basemen #6-8 are listed 91, 93 and 96? If you were drafting off the top-whatever list, you would be pressed to take the third baseman who is ranked ahead of the first sacker. However, if you weren't slavishly drafting off the list, pulled back from the draft a bit and thought about it, you would take the first baseman, wouldn't you? There is only one first baseman left that you want, so you need to draft him, especially since there is still a chance that one of the three third sackers will still be available when you select next. If you followed a top-whatever list, you’d make the wrong call and take the third sacker.

So if I don't believe in a top-whatever list, what do I recommend you do? The tiering model is my method of attack, and in the following piece, I'll lay out why that is a much better plan to follow on draft day than the static top-whatever list.