Kendrys Morales turned down a longer contract for more money this offseason. Heck, he turned down a 1-year, $13 million qualifying offer. However, since teams that could sign him would have to give up a first round draft pick he languished as a free agent until last week, the point where draft pick compensation no longer mattered (with the MLB Entry Draft taking place the compensation no longer applied). Morales chose to sign with the Twins on a $12 million on year deal, which is prorated to about $7.4 million for 2014. What do the Twins get for their money and what is Morales worth in the fantasy game?
* Note, that since he is out of options that Morales cannot be sent to the minors. He will have to take up a roster spot on the Twins and try to work his way into game shape without actually playing in games.
MORALES ISN'T WHO YOU THINK HE IS
Given the furor, the excitement with the Morales signing, it seems that folks think he's the second coming of Miguel Cabrera. Exaggerating a bit, but the point it still valid. People believe Morales to be something he is not. Let's explore.
In 2009 Morales hit .306 with 34 homers and 108 RBIs. He was terrific.
In 2010 he had 11 bombs and 39 RBIs in just 51 games when he hit a game winning homer, jumped on home plate to celebrate, and broke his leg. He missed the rest of the season and then missed ALL of the 2011 season as well as he recovered.
In 2012 he returned and hit .273 with 22 homers and 73 RBIs to go along with 61 runs.
In 2013 he hit .277 with 23 homers, 80 RBIs and 64 runs.
For his career Morales is a .280 hitter. He's hit .275 over his last 290 games.
Morales has hit 45 homers the last two years. Chris Davis hit 53 homers last season. The 45 homers Morales has hit the last two years place him tied for 40th in baseball with such stars as Chris Carter and Colby Rasmus. Heck, Mark Reynolds has one less (44) while Nick Swisher has one more (46). Morales is nothing other than an average power hitter for the first base position.
Morales has averaged 77 RBIs the past two years. His total of 153 RBIs the past two years has him tied for 44th. He had one less than Justin Morneau (154) and just one more than Martin Prado (52). Again, Morales is nothing other than an average run producer for the first base position.
Morales has scored an average of 63 runs the past two seasons. His total of 125 runs scored was tied for 108th in baseball. He's scored one run less than Will Venable (126) and one more than Dustin Ackley (124). Morales is not even fantasy league average for runs scored at first base.
He has four steals in his career.
Morales has a .333 OBP for his career. The league average during that time is .329. Pretty much league average wouldn't you say?
His career 0.38 BB/K ratio is just slightly below the league average.
His career 18 percent line drive rate is slightly below the league average.
His career 1.37 GB/FB ratio is worse than the league average. That's not good for a guy who is supposed to be a power hitter. The truth is that since he broke his leg he's simply not lifted the ball as frequently. Prior to his injury his 2009 ground ball rate was 42 percent. The last two years the number has been 51 and 49 percent.
Then there is this. Morales signed with the Twins (think he's regretting that decision since Mitch Moreland went down with the Rangers opening up a spot in Texas?). The Twins ballpark is pretty neutral. Right now Target Field is tied for 11th in homers and 9th in runs which is actually decidedly better than last year according to Park Factors (27th and 12th). One would figure that over the course of the season the numbers will stabilize a bit and tilt more toward the arms. Regardless, Target Field is not going to boost his offensive production.
CONCLUSION
Kendrys Morales isn't very good, but at least he's a switch hitter so he won't be platooned. He will play everyday for the Twins when he's ready. However, it's time to put out of your head his 2009 season. Since he broke his leg he's never again been that same hitter. Just hasn't. He's playing in a rather neutral home park. He will not be able to go down to the minors to get in real game action. He hasn't played in a big league game since 2013. That's a lot going against him. Regardless, he's way more Justin Morneau than he is Edwin Encarnacion. Don't be blinded by 2009.
10 team lg: Not worth your time unless you are just desperate.
12 team lg: Not overly interested here. If you were counting on Corey Hart or Mitch Moreland OK, but otherwise Morales really isn't more than a corner infield option. He's not a bad player to add, but he's also not someone you should be adding thinking you just picked up the final piece to a championship club.
15 team lg: Take a long time to consider how your team wouldn't be boosted by his addition. In a league of this depth a 20-75 guy is certainly valuable. Toss in the ever present injury situation that every team is fantasy is dealing with (injured 1B: Moreland, Logan Morrison, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, Brandon Belt, Mark Trumbo, Nick Swisher etc.) and someone should be pretty excited to add this guy.
AL-only: A must add. Of course, he should have been drafted and already been on someone's roster. If he wasn't, get on it. He's a potential difference maker in this format if he's healthy.
To see where Morales ranks ROTW, click on the link to our Player Rankings.