NFL Running Back Workloads: Week 8 Review

Rapid Reactions

Considering the nature of the turnaround of this article, much of what I’m saying comes from the same amount of time you have had to watch the games each week. Published on Tuesday, the Running Back Workload is only hours removed from Monday Night Football, and day removed from Sunday. I’m often analyzing the red zone channel like Sherlock Holmes trying to get an advantage, and while it is helpful, I will also use this section to get my thoughts on the page. Here are my top-five rapid reactions from the Week 8 NFL running back climate…

1) Time is now for Tennessee Transformation…

Don’t let me mislead you here, as DeMarco Murray has been every bit as good as I expected him to be, bouncing back from an awful 2015. My point here really is that as I said prior to the season, at some point down the line during the season, the Titans were going to have to allow rookie Derrick Henry to eat into Murray’s touches in order to help keep him healthy. Let’s not kid ourselves here, Murray has never been the best example of NFL longevity, so using the midway point of the season to shift gears into more of a time-split makes the most sense – especially considering they have such a talented back behind him in Henry just chomping at the bit.

With Murray undergoing an MRI on his injured foot this past weekend (despite everything checking out), my argument only feels strengthened. On Sunday, Henry’s production and workload increased, all the while Murray still managed to get his numbers. Ultimately I think the Titans are going to start featuring Henry more, albeit gradually, while Murray is going to be relied upon less. Murray will still remain the starter and third down back, but Henry will no longer just be a spell back, he will start to see at least a few series of his own per game going forward, and Murray will be healthier and better off for it.

2) The Weekly Touchdowns with Jon Stewart

In my preseason prediction column (more on that later) I mentioned Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart amongst the candidates for the Bronze Crutch award, which I give out every season to the league’s biggest fantasy bust at the running back position. While for the most part of 2016, I have been on track in his consideration, I couldn’t help but notice this past Sunday that Stewart scored another two touchdowns, making it back-to-back weeks with multiple touchdowns.

With the Panthers struggling for most of this season, it is becoming apparent that much of their shortcomings can be traced back to their lack of a reliable rushing attack or threat.

Here are the facts: With Stewart back for the last two games healthy, the Panthers have won one game and narrowly lost another. In the process they have averaged 34.0 points per game and their offensive line has only allowed three sacks – a vast improvement from their previous four games.

If we can surmise that Stewart’s presence has helped the Panthers scoring margin, offensive line play, and Cam Newton’s ability to stay upright, then we can also assume that the pressure will finally be taken off of this struggling defense. Believe it or not, Jonathan Stewart may just be the Panthers key to turning this season around.

3) Fumbling: The Cardinal Sin in Football

So far this season I would say that one of the most interesting things that I have learned about coaches is that now, more than ever, they do not tolerate fumbling. Likely this stems from the burgeoning belief that possession is the key to victory (contrarily to what Chip Kelly believes), but whatever the true reason may be, it is clear that turnovers – most specifically fumbling – are no longer tolerated.

Just this past week, we saw two veteran backs – former first rounder Ryan Mathews and Heisman winner Mark Ingram – get benched for most of the game after suffering from fumbling issues. Mathews’ issue dated back to fumbling in the final two minutes of two of the last three games, while Ingram on Sunday lost a fumble for the second consecutive week. The examples go beyond Ingram and Mathews though, as we saw Matt Jones in the doghouse a couple of weeks ago, Ezekiel Elliott in Week 1, and Jeremy Hill for a large portion of 2015.

Sure coaches hating fumbling is nothing new, but in today’s NFL, coaches no longer feel beholden to a specific running back based off of their “dime a dozen” labeling from most executives and pundits. This allows coaches to be more stern with players and make statements to their teams much easier.

Ultimately the loser here is the fantasy owner. Ball security is now something that must be looked into when selecting a fantasy back because otherwise, the most talented of runners or the most accomplished of veterans can be benched at a moment’s notice, crippling an entire Sunday or even worse, an entire fantasy season.

4) Waiver Availability

Speaking of the benching of both Ingram and Mathews, their jobs were not only up for grabs, but were also properly filled on Sunday, as both Tim Hightower and Darren Sproles did a great job in relief of the shamed veteran backs. I would consider both Sproles and Hightower reasonable waiver pickups this week, especially in deeper leagues.

Other backs to consider: Robert Kelley, Bilal Powell (PPR), Peyton Barber, Devontae Booker, and Charcandrick West

5) Midseason Look at Preseason Predictions

Considering we are at the midway point of the season, I figure it’s time to reflect on my preseason predictions and see how I am doing in terms of prophesizing the 2016 NFL season…

Eric Dickerson Award: (Rookie Rusher of the Year) –

Preseason Prediction: Ezekiel Elliott

This was the easiest choice for me coming out of the preseason, as I really didn’t see Zeke having any competition amongst his rookie peers. To humor you the reader, amongst rookie running backs, Zeke is first in yards, first in touches, first in touchdowns, first in receptions, first in yards per carry, and first in broken tackles. This award is his, and it may remain his even if he didn’t play another down in 2016. Something to watch going forward: Zeke is currently on pace to break Eric Dickerson’s rookie rushing record.

Adrian Peterson Award: (Comeback Back of the Year) –  

Preseason Prediction: DeMarco Murray

Another prediction that I was spot on with, as Murray is well on his way to one of the best bounce back seasons in league history. His stat line season pace: 1,512 rushing yards, 12 TD’s, and 4.7 yards per carry. Others that I considered: LeSean McCoy and Carlos Hyde, who both are experiencing excellent bounce back seasons save for a few games injured. Player I properly disregarded: Arian Foster, who announced his retirement a couple of weeks ago.

The Herschel Walker Bronze Crutch: (Backfield Bust of the Year) –

Preseason Prediction: Latavius Murray

As much disdain as I have for Murray and as much as I can make a legitimate argument for him being one of the biggest backfield busts of 2016 (on pace for just 559 rushing yards and is averaging barely 4.0 yards per carry), there is no question that Todd Gurley is just a bust on a much bigger scale. He’s struggling to average 3.0 yards per carry and is on pace to rush for under 1,000 yards. Considering his lofty RB1 expectations, there is no excuse for how poorly he has performed in 2016. Sorry to all of his fantasy owners.

Larry Centers Trophy: (PPR Performer of the Year) –

Preseason Prediction: David Johnson

Every player I mentioned in this section of my preseason article are well in contention, and while the argument can certainly be validly made for my pick in Johnson (leading all backs in receptions), for now I am going to say that Theo Riddick is edging him out for the award because of his four receiving touchdowns. This award still has a lot of football left before it can be decided definitively; likely it will come down to Week 17.

Emmitt Smith Golden Football: (Fantasy Running Back MVP) – 

Preseason Prediction: Ezekiel Elliott

There is no doubt that I was on the right track when I picked Zeke as my preseason favorite for the RB MVP award. He’s leading the league in rushing – is on pace to break the rookie record – is averaging a whopping 5.0 yards per carry, and is the driving force behind the Cowboys NFC leading 6-1 record. However my inner Kanye West is saying:

“Yo Zeke, I’m really happy for you, I’ma let you finish, but David Johnson is on pace for one of the best seasons of all time!”

David Johnson is not only on pace for over 1,400 yards and 16 touchdowns rushing, but he also is maintaining a pace for over 70 receptions and 800 receiving yards. On top of this, when you boil it down to fantasy terms, Johnson is leading all backs in fantasy points and he’s currently edging Elliott by a whopping 32. Despite Zeke’s best efforts, Johnson is running away with this one. Luckily for him and the sake of my predictions, there is still half a season left.

The Bo Jackson Memorial “What Could Have Been” Trophy –

Preseason Prediction: N/A

I didn’t predict this one in the preseason because I never want to prophesize an injury upon any athlete. Eight weeks into the season though now, I have seen enough to hand out this award… In more of a “Lifetime Achievement” regard, I believe that Arian Foster deserves The Bo Jackson Memorial “What Could Have Been” Trophy.

During his three-year peak of health, Foster averaged 1,421 yards and nearly 14 touchdowns per season. This is all not to mention that during that same stretch he was arguably the league’s best receiving back as well. This peak stretch ended in 2012, seemingly as fast as it started in 2010 – his second year in the league. What followed were a slew of injuries that crippled nearly every season following, until he finally knew it was time to hang ‘em up just this past week. Blessed with all of the talent possibly needed for the position, it’s tough not to wonder, “What could have been?” when it comes to Foster. He embodies almost everything that was Bo – talent, a dominant stretch, and then poof…