On this night – the eve of the NFL Draft – it is important for us to evaluate the burning questions that need to be answered when the event kicks off on Thursday night in primetime (8:00 PM EST). In a typical class, there are usually more potentially game breaking prospects expected in the top 10, which oftentimes makes the mock draft process much easier. However, fans should be happy that Thursday night – and the rest of the draft for that matter – should be full of surprises. My goal is to put many of the up in the air storylines into perspective, allowing you – the viewer – to fully appreciate the spectacle that is the NFL Draft.
1. The Curious Case of Ezekiel Elliot
Despite what many have been feeling for the last couple months, Zeke Elliot is, in fact, in play for the Dallas Cowboys at No. 4 overall. Not to say that people didn’t want to believe it, but more so that it was assumed that the rumors of taking a running back that high had to be Jerry Jones blowing smoke in order to keep other teams guessing. Now, this pick is by no means set in stone, as Dallas will also be taking into consideration Florida State’s defensive back Jalen Ramsey and Ohio State’s defensive end Joey Bosa.
As a traditionalist, I find it hard to believe that a team would use the fourth overall selection on a running back – albeit a potentially All-Pro running back. Because of this, I think that either Bosa or Ramsey will be the Cowboys pick. In my current mock draft, I have Ramsey getting snatched up at No. 3 overall by the Chargers, leaving the Cowboys with only Bosa or Elliot to choose from. Considering the Cowboys' embarrassingly thin defensive line at the moment, this pick should become a no brainer (unless they plan on trading out and gaining more picks). I ultimately think that they settle on Bosa and figure out running back with any of their subsequent selections, thus beginning the unpredictable slide of one Ezekiel Elliot.
The question then becomes, how far can Elliot fall and who will the lucky team be that eventually pulls the trigger on the potentially franchise altering running back? The next team that makes sense is the Browns at No. 8, but with their assumed analytic based scouting department, a premium isn’t likely to be highly placed on the running back position. At No. 10 overall, it might be really difficult for the Giants to pass on Elliot considering the awful group of backs they trotted onto the field every Sunday last season, but with other holes on their roster, they too may pass. The Bears at 11, the Dolphins at 13, and the Lions at 16, all could legitimately want Elliot, but there is still no clear landing spot for the ultra-talented back.
My gut feeling is that he doesn’t make it out of the top 10, as someone either nuts up and takes him with their premium selection, or another one of teams I listed (Chicago, Miami, Detroit) trades into the top 10 and makes the biggest splash of the draft.
Ultimately, early on the storyline to watch for is what will Dallas do with their No. 4 pick. If they choose someone other than Zeke, prepare for him to slide or for another team to trade into the top 10. For fantasy owners, this is likely the most important selection in the draft, as where he lands will likely shape the running back market for fantasy leagues next season.
2. Paxton Lynch – Rosenfels, Roethlisberger, or Somewhere in Between?
After Elliot comes off the board, the next storyline emerges almost instantly, as “Paxton Lynch Watch” should begin as early as No. 12 overall with the New Orleans Saints.
Lynch is a 6-foot-7, 245 lbs., redshirt junior who physically has it all. He’s got a Ben Roethlisberger/Cam Newton-like build with a cannon arm to fit the billing. He’s also athletically gifted like the two All-Pro quarterbacks mentioned, essentially giving him all of the physical traits needed to be considered a top quarterback prospect.
Contrarily to his positive physical traits and excellent production in college this past season, Lynch also presents a lot of question marks to NFL decision makers and draft evaluators. Mechanically Lynch is incredibly raw. He operated out of a gimmicky offense, primarily featuring up-tempo spread pace and spacing, pistol sets, read-option reads, and run-and-shoot motions and action, none of which he is likely to use often at the NFL level. These crutch-like features in the Memphis offense allowed him to fall into bad habits mechanically, leading to inconsistencies in his footwork and accuracy.
Because of this, many consider Lynch a project quarterback – at least more that the two above him in Jared Goff and Carson Wentz – which may scare off teams looking for an answer at the position right away. As I mentioned earlier, the Saints just recently threw their hats into the ring, claiming that Lynch would be a nice player to develop behind Drew Brees until he retires within the next year or two. If he doesn’t go at 12 and the Saints instead decide to address their historically bad defense, then all bets are off for Paxton Lynch – maybe even his guarantee of going on Day 1.
Lynch is one of those prospects who is really tough to project. With the wide variety of game tape on him in terms of up and down play, it’s tough to get a gauge on if a team will be getting Ben Roethlisberger or Sage Rosenfels – another well-built, athletic quarterback coming out of college years ago. The key with a player like this is to give him time to fully develop rather than letting him start too early and have his confidence shattered by NFL defenses.
Like Zeke Elliot, there are a number of teams in the mix for Lynch because he is one of the few prospects nowadays that you can afford to be patient with. Any team with an aging quarterback or a team without one at all could feel his talent is just too hard to pass up on, making him the true wild card of the draft not named Robert Nkemdiche.
3. Knee’s Company – The Jack and Jaylon Story
In the beginning of this draft process last summer, there was little doubt that two linebackers – UCLA’s Myles Jack and Notre Dame’s Jaylon Smith – were two of the most talented players in the draft. But as life always seems to do, a wrench was thrown into those evaluations, as both players suffered catastrophic knee injuries during the 2015 season. Luckily for Jack – if you will allow me to use that term here – his knee injury occurred during October, giving him plenty of extra time to rehab and get properly prepared for the draft process. Smith, on the other hand, blew up his knee in Notre Dame’s New Year’s Day bowl game against Ohio State, ultimately ruining his chances to give any NFL teams a good look at him during the evaluation process.
Both players, previously surefire top 5 selections in tomorrow’s draft, are receiving a ton of criticism and doubt, as team doctors are leaking information that neither has properly healed and may face significant health issues further down the line. Teams have been known to use medical information as smokescreens, which while may be unethical, is an effective way to get the player you want. I believe this is the case for Jack, as there have been conflicting reports on his knee injury and he has at least shown evidence of being back to football playing health. While he has yet to run for teams, he provided 19 reps of 225 lbs. on the bench at the Combine, and displayed a 40-inch vertical jump and a 10.4-foot long jump at UCLA’s pro day. It is reasonable to believe with these measurables only six months after tearing his lateral meniscus that he will be in full football shape come August. Because of this, I still see a team taking Jack in the top 5, while it would be shocking to see him fall out of the top 10.
Unfortunately for Jaylon Smith, the outlook doesn’t appear to be as optimistic. His ACL injury was so devastating that many worry that he suffered nerve damage beyond repair or recovery, ultimately leaving his lateral athletic burst in a non-existent state. For anyone who hasn’t seen him play, Smith’s game couldn’t be more hinged to his incredible athleticism, quick-twitch reactions and plant-and-go knee movements. The reality is that at the moment, Smith’s knee literally cannot move laterally when in a hanging state. The nerves in his ligament are currently dormant, and like a human in a coma, have no timetable of when they will wake up. Until they do – if they ever do – he cannot play football. This makes it very unlikely that a team will spend a selection on Smith on Day 1 or even Day 2, despite his unbelievable talent.
4. “Moneyball” – What to Expect from Paul DePodesta and the Cleveland Browns on Draft Night
Thanks to the Oscar nominated film and Michael Lewis’ book of the same name, we are all familiar with Moneyball and it’s impact on Major League Baseball. Now, with the Browns at the pinnacle of desperation, they decided to bring in Paul DePodesta (played by Jonah Hill in the film) of Oakland A’s fame to serve as their “Chief Strategy Officer” and to hopefully bring in a strictly analytical oriented approach to football.
To avoid getting too hyperbolic here, I’m not going to wildly speculate on how he and Sashi Brown (GM) will wheel and deal behind the scenes, or if Jonah Hill will re-up for “Moneyball 2: Gridiron Geeks” after DePodesta’s sabermetrics bring home a Lombardi Trophy to the Browns, but I have to admit… I would be lying if I told you that I wasn’t interested in the Browns' new approach to the draft on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday night.
I mean, there is an entire chapter in the book devoted to the 2002 MLB Draft, outlining specific prospects and their profiles. It will be fascinating to watch if the Browns draft strategy is similar to how the A’s laid it out in Michael Lewis’s book all the way back in 2003.
It is expected that they might trade out for more picks, which would be the obvious conclusion for a team looking to stockpile talent and take chances on undervalued players, but if they don’t trade out, I will be most interested to see what position/player their likely computer generated calculations consider the most valuable in the first round. Definitely something to keep an eye on here.
5. Kicking & Screaming-- Roberto Aguayo, and his Quest to be a Day 2 Pick…
Bold, brash, bravado, braggadocio. All adjectives describing arguably the “B”est kicker in college football history. Roberto Aguayo is unlike any kicker in recent memory, as his swagger runs so deep through his veins that he oftentimes refers to himself in the third person.
With the mindset of a cornerback, Aguayo is looking to be drafted in the same round as one too. If I’m running an NFL franchise, there is no way I’m taking a kicker/punter anytime before the fifth round. However, there has been some legitimate buzz surrounding Aguayo leading up to this draft, giving me a feeling that someone may take a chance on him in the third or maybe even the second round.
His NCAA record of a perfect 198-of-198 on PAT’s and 46-of-46 from 40 yards and in over three years at Florida State might actually make him worth a Day 2 pick. His precision accuracy on medium-to-close kicks will prove to be a weapon in the NFL with their new PAT rules, while his unique talent on pooch kickoffs will also provide teams with an advantage on the new 25-yard line touchback policy.
If Aguayo is taken in the second round, it will be the first time since 2005 that a specialist has crept into the top 64 (Mike Nugent, New York Jets). Realistically though, Aguayo should be expecting to fall into the third round, hopefully selected prior to 70th overall, as he would pass punter Bryan Anger for the highest drafted specialist since 2005. One thing I can say with pretty close to certainty is that Aguayo will not reach the rarified air that Sebastian Janikowski did in April of 2000 when the Raiders took him with the 17th overall pick in the first round.