The Week That Was: ADPs that Puzzle Me

The Week That Was:  ADPs that Puzzle Me

I am not a slave to ADPs or Average Draft Positions.  If you think a player will put up a strong year and want that player, go ahead and grab him irrespective of whether the ADP says it is a bit early.  That said, ADPs are useful in helping you determine whether that player you want is likely to be available later in the draft.  So I took a little jaunt through the NFBC ADPs to look for interesting items.  I found quite a few – mostly ADPs I just do not understand and I tell you why. 

Anthony Rendon:  (ADP 11).  Rendon is good.  No one disputes that.  He qualifies as the scarce 2B position.  That is valuable.  No one dispute that either.  However, 11^th overall is just way too early for someone who has only one good MLB year under his belt and who has less than 1000 AB in the big leagues.  I know that Rendon had a really good year in 2014 and managed to stay healthy and log 613 AB.  However, in 2012-13, he missed a ton of time, managing to accumulate only 611 AB in those two years combined.  Those drooling over his 17 SB in 2014 and counting the SB as money in the bank should look harder – Rendon had a total of 2 SB including majors and minors in 2012 and 2013 combined!  Bottom line – I like Rendon but would not pass on proven consistent producers in the first round to grab him. 

Michael Brantley:  (ADP 19)    I like Michael Brantley a lot.  Indeed, right here at fantasyalarm.com I noted that he was the Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy baseball – no respect:    http://www.fantasyalarm.com/articles/colton/18101/learning-lessons-round-by-round-in-nfbc-style-ldquo-commentary-mock-rdquo-part-iv/  All that love aside, early in round two is just too early for a guy who is likely to see some regression from his breakout year.  2014 was the first time he hit 20 HR, first time he stole 20 bases and first time he hit .300.  Can he do all three again in 2015?  Maybe but I would say probably not.  Am I willing to risk an early pick in round two on Brantley when I do not get to pick again until late round 4 hoping that Brantley repeats all three feats?  Um no.  Again, I really like Brantley but just not THAT much.

Todd Frazier:  (ADP 36)   Yes, I co-authored the SMART system.  Yes, S in SMART stands for Scarcity.  Yes, 3B is more scarce than people think (though much more scarce for those playing in NL only leagues).  However, mid-round 3 is just too high.  After all, Frazier is already 29 and while the power is likely real, has never hit higher than .273, stolen 20 bases only once at any level and has never driven in more than 80 runs in a season.  Is Frazier a good player?  Yes.  However, I rather lock down an ace or a huge upside play like Matt Kemp or Justin Upton in the middle of the third round.  

Craig Kimbrel: (ADP 50)    It is hard not to like Kimbrel.  His stuff is filthy.  His 3 year average of 100+ Ks and 40+ saves has proven very valuable.  That said, the Braves are going to be bad.  That creates a risk he will be traded this summer and who knows what effect that may have.  Second, and more the point, how do you pass on a frontline starter like Hamels or Jordan Zimmerman or a hitter like Pujols, Pence or Adrian Gonzalez when really good relievers such as Robertson, Betances, Melancon and Allen are all going rounds later?  I don’t. 

Evan Longoria:  (ADP 57) The T in SMART stands for Team and Longoria’s team is not going to be good on offense.  The Rays are not going to be good at all.  The Rays’ lack of punch will reduce Longoria’s runs and rbi.  It will also reduce the number of fastballs he is likely to see.  If you are a pitcher, are you grooving one for Longo to avoid facing Loney, Asdrubal, Sousza, etc?  I did not think so.  Oh, and when you add in the fact that Longo has been injury prone in his career and his batting average has dropped the last two years (down to .253 last year), you do not have a player I would risk a 4^th round pick on.  Just sayin’

Prince Fielder: (ADP 62) The Rules of Engagement say not to pay full value for a player coming off injury.  Fielder is not only coming off injury, he is coming off of a very serious injury that involved fusing vertebrae in his cervical spine.  I think people have this image of a guy who is money in the bank for 35 HR and 100+ RBI.  Well, Prince will be 31 in May and even in his supposedly healthy 2013, he hit 25 HR and batted .279 – good numbers but hardly world beating.  If you are going to buy Fielder assuming a return to health, pay only for 2013 numbers.  Doing that, you would not make him your fourth round pick.

Brian Dozier:  (ADP 67) Ok, I get that he was a 20-20 guy last year.  No taking that away from Dozier.  However, here are things that the runaway train is conveniently forgetting:  Dozier has hit .244 or below in each of the last three seasons; he hit .234 in his last significant AAA action; and his contact rate has reduced in each of the three years he has been in the show.  If you are in OBP leagues, ok, he does draw walks and is thus more valuable.  Check your league rules and if you play in a classic batting average league, spend your 5^th round pick elsewhere.

Final Thought:  The Draft Guide is here!  Want to know how to get your copy?  Click on this link: http://www.fantasyalarm.com/articles/flowers/19861/the-2015-fantasy-alarm-fantasy-baseball-draft-guide/.   If you want a real shot at winning your league, DO IT NOW!