Given that the title of this series is ‘Managerial Tendencies,’ all we’ve done so far this season is (obviously) discuss managers. But managers do not operate in a vacuum. Managers are hired by, and potentially influenced by, the front office. After all, it’s the front office that hires the manager. You’ll often hear GMs say that on-field decisions are left to the manager, and even assuming that’s universally true, we can assume GMs are hiring managers that will make on-field decisions that fit with the GM’s philosophy of the game.
As examples of this, the Astros started employing the shift much more after Jeff Lunhow was hired as GM. Another example would be Tampa Bay’s recent tendency to pull starters earlier in the game due to the philosophy of the front office. And sometimes the impact of the front office on a manager is explicit. As an example of that, the Pittsburgh front office and Clint Hurdle are known to have an excellent working relationship, though surely there are many other examples of that.
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To consider the impact that a GM might have on a manager, we’ll look at the one team that has a new GM for this season but not a new coach, the Minnesota Twins. Paul Molitor is in his third season as manager of the Twins, and Thad Levine is in his first season as GM. The Diamondbacks have a new GM, but they also have a new manager, which makes it tough to attribute tendencies to the GM specifically in that case.
Let’s start by considering the difference in personnel. The biggest difference between this year’s Minnesota roster and last is the absence of Eduardo Nunez who is now in San Francisco. Nunez led the Twins in steals last season, and only one Twin has more than two steals so far this season, so there’s no need to consider how often the team is running when analyzing the manager/GM. The only other major difference in personnel is a new catching duo of Jason Castro and Chris Gimenez. However, there are some differences in how the Twins are using largely the same roster.
The biggest change in playing time from last year to this year is at shortstop. Nunez saw some work at short last year, but it was Eduardo Escobar who led the team in innings played at the position. But this year Escobar has played just 18 innings at short while Jorge Polanco has dominated the playing time with 177 innings. This potentially shows a preference for bat over glove under Levine, though Polanco did take over short by about mid-August last season, which was pre-Levine. But Escobar is clearly less of a liability defensively, while Polanco is a least a league average bat and Escobar is decidedly below average at the plate.
The other shift in playing time this season has been Eddie Rosario playing a bit more than Robbie Grossman with the opposite being true last season. In this case, it’s Rosario that’s better in the field, but Grossman is slightly better at the plate, though the two have different strengths at the plate. Rosario has more pop, and Grossman is much better at getting on base.
Were we to try and attribute lineup decisions to Levine, the one thing Polanco and Rosario have in common is that they have more power than the players they’re beating in playing time battles. Levine comes from Texas where they have an explicit focus on high upside players, so it’s possible players with power potential are going to get more reps going forward in Minnesota.
As far as pitching goes, we might have something more concrete we can attribute to Levine. Minnesota’s rotation was terrible last year with an ERA of 5.09. Despite having a horrific staff, Twins pitchers averaged a relatively normal 91.1 pitches per start (19th in the league). But this season the Twins staff has a much better ERA of 3.88 and yet they rank 25th in the league in average pitches per start at 86.8.
One could argue the Twins staff is just as bad as they were last year if not worse given that their xFIP this season is 4.66 compared to 4.42 last year. But it’s fair to assume that how many runs the starter has allowed that day (aka ERA) is a major factor in deciding when to pull that starter and his xFIP is not. It’s curious that Minnesota starters are allowing fewer runs but also getting pulled earlier.
As mentioned, Levine came to Minnesota from Texas where he served as assistant GM. While in Texas, GM Jon Daniels and Nolan Ryan famously butted heads with Ryan eventually leaving the organization. The specific nature of the conflict between Ryan and Daniels hasn’t been commented on, but one wonders if it might be over the way starters were handled. Ryan was open about his wish to see pitchers go deeper into games, and the Rangers ranked 10th in average pitches per start in Ryan’s last year in Texas and 22nd the following season. Though to be fair, Texas’ rotation was not as good the following season.
The fantasy impact of starters generally being pulled earlier in games is twofold. First, it hurts counting numbers like strikeouts. High strikeout rates are great, but they mean less when the denominator of batters faced is lower. Second, it helps ratio categories. Because pitchers are less successful the second and third time through the order on average, their ratios will be hurt less if they’re not facing as many hitters a third time.
The Twins don’t have a ton of strikeout arms in their rotation now, but presumably Jose Berrios will be called up at some point. He has a 28.9 percent strikeout rate at Triple-A this season, and a shorter leash somewhat limits a fantasy asset he provides. But a shorter leash works in the favor of the rest of Minnesota’s mediocre staff from a fantasy perspective. To the extent that any Twins are options in your specific league-type, whether it be as a regular or a streamer, they’re more viable with a short leash and subsequently less ratio risk.