Last week we kicked off our Managerial Tendencies series with a look at the new managers for the Diamondbacks and the White Sox. That was an obvious choice of topic at the start of the season, but coming up with topics on this subject for the next six months may be difficult. So today, instead of analyzing a specific manager, we’ll discuss some of the potential statistics we’ll be looking to in our analysis of managerial tendencies throughout the season.
Stolen Base Attempts
The Baseball Prospectus sortable stats page has categories for managerial stats, both hitting and pitching. Stolen base attempts is one of the stats on the offensive page. This stat is obviously very dependent on personnel, and the same manager could have very different numbers year-to-year based on who is on the roster. But this stat can be useful in the context of managerial changes to see how one manager handled the base paths compared to another manager who largely managed the same group of players.
Sacrifice Bunts by Position Players
Sacrifice bunts really aren’t fantasy-friendly. The only positive impact from a fantasy perspective is that a player’s chances of scoring a run increase slightly if they advance a base. But overall a base runner’s chances of scoring decrease after a sac bunt because a) his team just gave away an out and b) the batter could have moved the base runner more than one base and perhaps scored him with a hit. And of course, a sac bunt provides no fantasy value for the batter laying it down.
It should be noted that the difference between the team with the most sac bunts by position players last year and the team with the least was only 31 sac bunts. The stat doesn’t count unsuccessful sacrifice attempts, but it still shows the differences here are negligible over 162 games. But this stat can be used in conjunction with others like how often a team swings with a runner in motion to identify the managers most likely to play small ball. Big outcomes are the most valuable in fantasy, and small ball managers limit those opportunities.
It should be noted that the Angels led the league in sac bunts last year and ranked second in swings with a runner going, so add this to the list of reasons why Mike Scioscia is the worst.
Pinch Hits
We should immediately note that this stat is one in which managers should only be compared to other managers in the same league. With no DH in the NL, the 15 NL teams are obviously going to rank 1-15 in this stat. But it can be beneficial to know that the Dodgers pinch hit over 100 times more than the Nationals last season. And the AL leader in pinch hits, Seattle, also used a pinch hitter over 100 times more than the team that used a pinch hitter the least, the White Sox.
Fantasy baseball is about some mix of talent and volume, so plate appearances are a big part of that equation. Platooning is now a major part of the game, and a manager who utilizes more pinch hitters is likely one that platoons players at a higher rate. This stat goes together with lineup construction, which will likely also be a big topic of conversation in this series.
Average Pitches Thrown by Starting Pitchers
This stat is another than can be driven by personnel as a manager with a good rotation is generally going to have his starters go deeper into games.
For instance, three of the top four teams in this stat last year were Boston, Washington and San Francisco whose rotations all finished top eight in ERA last season. But joining them in the top four in this stat were the White Sox who only ranked 13th in ERA. And it wasn’t all Chris Sale because the White Sox were tied for the league lead in games with 101+ pitches thrown by their starter with 79. The White Sox have a new manager this season, so in this instance the stat isn’t helpful, but this example illustrates its potential utility.
If you’re a DFS player, this statistic may mean more to you than it does to seasonal players. Innings are points in DFS, so you always want your pitcher to come back out for another inning late in the game. But the same may not be true for seasonal players. Sure, if your pitcher comes back out for another inning he has the chance to rack up a few more strikeouts or give him a chance to end up recording the win. But pitching an extra inning or two can be risky when it comes to rate stats. Hitters are more successful each time through the lineup, so the risk of damage to rate stats may not be worth an extra strikeout or two.
In DFS, especially GPPs, the risk is worth the reward because you always want more points. But in seasonal a manager who tends to let his starters go deeper into a game isn’t necessarily fantasy-friendly.
This is by no means an exhaustive list of stats we’ll be looking at this season. As an example, bullpen usage is something not mentioned above that figures to be a recurring point of discussion here. But these are some of the most tangible ways a manager can have an impact on the fantasy game.