Waiting on Quarterbacks

As we all prepare for the upcoming fantasy football season one of the biggest discussions to be had is when to draft your quarterback.  For the majority of fantasy football leagues the quarterback will be the highest scoring player in terms of fantasy points as they are the only fantasy player on the field to touch the ball with each offensive snap and therefore create the most opportunity to score points. 

The debate to be had is whether or not it’s worth using an early-round pick on an elite quarterback like Cam Newton or Aaron Rodgers, who are projected to be the first two quarterbacks off the board and rank among the top scoring fantasy players this year, or to focus on the shallower skill positions and draft a quarterback in the later rounds where you can grab guys like Blake Bortles, Philip Rivers and Carson Palmer who have the upside of being among the top quarterbacks in the league but are projected to score potentially 50-75 points less than top tiered guys.  While each year is different let’s take a look at how the quarterback position panned out in 2015 based off of the end of season rankings and average draft position for each player to see if there really is a right or wrong answer to drafting a quarterback for your fantasy roster.

The 2015 Quarterback Breakdown

The Injured

The 2015 season was an interesting one as it was full of injuries to some of the league's big-name players at nearly every position, including the quarterback position where eight of the 27 players listed above missed at least two games with some of the bigger names missing more such as Ben Roethlisberger (4), Andrew Luck (9), Peyton Manning (6) and Tony Romo (12).  Andrew Luck owned an ADP of 25.2 which saw him drafted in the second round of most leagues, but injury and poor play saw his season come to an end after seven games. 

Peyton Manning had an ADP of 58.2 which saw him taken around the fifth round of most standard leagues but he too dealt with injuries and just overall poor play which sidelined him for six weeks.  The mid-tier option like Tony Romo who had an ADP of 100.4 but saw a broken clavicle twice force him to miss games and ultimately limit him to just four games, two of which he left with injury. While you certainly cannot predict injuries in sports, there is no question that an injury to a top tiered quarterback can be devastating to a fantasy team if the owner does not have a viable back up option

The MVP

Cam Newton led the way for all fantasy players in 2015 by scoring 389.1 points thanks to his dual-threat ability which saw him throw for 3,837 yards with 35 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while rushing for 636 yards and 10 touchdowns on his way to an MVP season.  Newton fell in most drafts after the Panthers star receiver Kelvin Benjamin went down with a torn ACL before training camp even began which put the receiving group outside of Greg Olsen in question.  Newton’s ADP of 104.8 saw him typically taken in the eighth round which was an absolute bargain and likely saw many of his owners playing for a championship. Newton tops the ADP for quarterbacks heading into 2016 and for good reason as he will have a healthy Kelvin Benjamin at his disposal which should only help his passing stats.

The Big Surprises

Two of the biggest surprises of the 2015 season had to be Carson Palmer and Blake Bortles.  Palmer was coming off ACL surgery and at his age many questioned whether or not he was going to be able to be effective in what was expected to be a defensively stout NFC West.  Not only was Palmer able to be effective, but he finished fifth overall in fantasy points despite having an ADP of 171.1 which saw him typically taken in the 14^th round of standard leagues.  Blake Bortles was coming off a rookie season which he was not very impressive but as the third overall pick in 2014 there was certainly some upside here.  Fantasy owners should not be faulted for letting Bortles slide to an ADP of 214.8 as nobody could have envisioned him throwing for 4,428 yards with 35 touchdowns and 18 interceptions while adding 310 yards and two scores on the ground.  Bortles' average draft round was 17.9 yet he finished fourth overall in total points which likely saw him go undrafted in most standard leagues.  For this season both Palmer and Bortles are getting a little more respect but still find themselves projected to be drafted between rounds 7-to-10 depending on which ADP you look at despite the fact that they are coming off top five fantasy seasons.

The Usual Suspects

Finishing just outside the top five in the ranks we find Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees who were typically taken as the second and third quarterbacks off the board.  For many who drafted Rodgers they were likely felled by the injury to Jordy Nelson, who tore his ACL during the last preseason game of the season.  While the Packers' passing attack was still solid, there is no doubt that with a healthy Jordy Nelson, a better season for Rodgers was to be had.  For those who drafted Drew Brees they did so with some risk for the first time in a few years as the Saints went and traded Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills during the offseason, who were the Saints' two leading receivers in 2014 which left the Saints with the aging Marques Colston, second year man Brandin Cooks and undrafted rookie Willie Snead as Brees main targets.  Fortunately for fantasy owners, both Cooks and Snead turned in big seasons and if not for the fact that he played through injuries for most of the year a bigger season could have been had for Brees. 

Fantasy owners are going right back to the well with Rodgers as the prospects of a healthy Jordy Nelson at wide receiver and newly signed Jared Cook at tight end have his current ADP trending around the fourth round of most standard league drafts.  Brees, however, has seen his ADP dip to maybe it’s lowest since joining the Saints as fantasy owners are grabbing him around the seventh round of drafts. The Saints added tight end Coby Fleener in the offseason which figures to be a favorite target of Brees given his love for throwing to athletic tight ends.

The Undrafted and Underappreciated

Some quarterbacks who were completely off the radar for most fantasy owners made some noise in 2015 as well with Kirk Cousins finishing eighth, Ryan Fitzpatrick finishing 11^th and Tyrod Taylor finishing 16^th overall in scoring despite the fact that they went undrafted in the majority of leagues including Fantasy Alarm’s Mock Draft Army ADP.  With Cousins and Taylor, their role as a starting quarterback was not solidified until most fantasy leagues had already drafted as the expectations were that Robert Griffin III was going to start for the Redskins and Matt Cassel was going to start for the Bills.  Fortunately, plans changed and both players turned in great fantasy seasons.  Fitzpatrick, unlike the other two, was always set to be the Jets' starting quarterback. However, there was little faith in the veteran quarterback and even though the Jets went and traded for Brandon Marshall to add a big-time receiving target for Fitzpatrick to go along with Eric Decker he still went largely undrafted.  Fitzpatrick ended up finishing the season as the 11^th ranked quarterback but was still a consistent member of many weekly waiver flavor articles as he got no love from fantasy owners despite his production. Heading into the 2016 season there are again some question marks with this group even after their solid 2015 seasons. 

Cousins is being taken around the 10^th round of fantasy drafts despite coming off a top 10 fantasy season and at least for the time being he figures to have a healthy DeSean Jackson this year after D-Jax missed six games last season due to hamstring issues.  Fitzpatrick is currently a man without a team as the Jets are not meeting his contract demands and he has stated that he would sooner retire than play for what he is being offered.  The longer Fitzpatrick goes unsigned the more and more likely it is that he finds his draft stock tumbling down the charts. 

Finally, we come to Tyrod Taylor whom fantasy owners are taking around pick No. 174, which for most standard leagues would have him going undrafted all together.  A healthy Sammy Watkins would go a long way in boosting Taylor’s fantasy value, but for now he looks like somebody who figures to be a waiver wire pickup baring a really strong preseason.

The Conclusion

So what have we learned here from reviewing how things panned out in 2015 for the quarterback position? Well, the average ADP of the top three quarterbacks is 100.2 which equals out to an average round value of 8.4.  The top quarterbacks taken in the draft all had relative down years when compared to their projections and while injuries can be blamed for some of the down production it looks, at least for 2015, the smart play was to wait on drafting a quarterback. The majority of the top scoring quarterbacks were taken after the seventh round last year and based off of the 2016 ADP’s there are plenty of options once again from the seventh round on, which will allow you to focus on those ever so important skill players earlier in the draft. Of course, each fantasy owner values positions differently and by no means am I telling you to pass up on the likes of a Cam Newton in hopes that you can find this year’s Blake Bortles later in the draft if you think that Newton is the best option for your team at that time.  So go ahead and build your team how you best think it will get you that victory in the championship game.