Welcome to NFL Week 16 and yet another opportunity to build some winning DFS lineups and rake in some extra holiday cash! The NFL is starting it’s Saturday slates this week, so between those two games, Thursday Night Football and Monday Night Football, we have just an 11-game main slate on DraftKings with a 12-game main slate for FanDuel. 

We’ve dominated with the DFS Playbook over the last two weeks, so we’ve won on slates with more games as well as less. We’re right in the middle and that works just fine, so let’s get to the best NFL Week 16 DFS Watch List.

 

 

 

Remember, this is just a preliminary list. We will always be on the hunt for value. Over the last two weeks, we’ve seen some very nice value open up. Two weeks ago, it was Isaac Guerendo and Zach Charbonnet. Last week, it was Brenton Strange. As the season progresses, the DFS sites continue to raise prices across the board on top running backs and if you’ve scrolled through today, you’ll see the same is happening to the wide receivers. 

When this happens, it makes building cash lineups a little more difficult as many still throw GPP darts into their cash lineups and when the chalk hits, the pay-lines rise. We were still cashing with ours, but last week we were right at the cut line in a number of 50/50 contests. If some chalky value opens up later in the week, we’ll be just fine.

 

 
 

 

Best NFL DFS Week 16 Watch List For 2024

Before we get to the NFL DFS Week 16 Watch List, I always like to do a quick review of the previous week. Checking out where we hit and where we misses is important to the process as we always want to make sure we are consistent with our analysis and choices. Not every one of the picks will hit, but if we start ourselves off in the right spot, things get a little easier once the late-week value appears. 

We were completely in on Aaron Rodgers, though by the time we were finalizing the Playbook, we were more on Davante Adams than Garrett Wilson who was featured in last week’s Watch List. We also hit with both Rico Dowdle and Stone Smartt. Neither was as explosive as someone like Adams, but both returned some solid value for what we paid. 

We whiffed on featured players like Chuba Hubbard, though I will continue to stand by the analysis, Kyler Murray and Noah Fant. We only used Murray for GPP tournaments, so it wasn’t too bad. We also featured Zay Flowers who was the most targeted receiver for Lamar Jackson, but he failed to score the touchdown, so value-wise, it was probably even-money at best.

Here’s a look at last week’s optimal lineups from the Playbook. Some really good stuff, for sure.

But enough about last week. Let’s talk about the upcoming weekend and let’s get to the best NFL DFS Week 16 Watch List.

 

 

 

Top DraftKings DFS Week 16 Watch List

Kyler Murray, QB Arizona Cardinals ($6,100)

Yes, we’re going right back to the well and we’re getting Murray at a cheaper price and in a better match-up, facing the Carolina Panthers. I get that he may be tough to trust, but that’s the nature of a GPP tournament. His ceiling is extremely high and that’s what we’re looking for, aren’t we? 

The Panthers are allowing an average of 213.2 passing yards per game, but more importantly, they have let up a league-high 27 passing touchdowns and opposing quarterbacks have posted an extremely efficient 104.0 passer rating.

Breece Hall, RB New York Jets ($6,100)

He played last week which means he’s good to go, health-wise, but now his back-up Braelon Allen is banged-up which means Hall could/should see more opportunities both on the ground and in the passing game. 

The Rams are allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per game this season and they’ve coughed up 13 rushing touchdowns. Yes, Aaron Rodgers will try to turn this into a shootout, but Hall will still see enough volume to surpass the value we need. 

Ray-Ray McCloud, WR Atlanta Falcons ($4,500)

It’s never too early to drop in a dart-throw and while yes, Kirk Cousins looks awful, rumors of him being on his way out the door in Atlanta will spark that “YOU LIKE THAT” Cousins we all know and love. 

The Giants ranks 31st in DVOA against the opposing slot receiver which is where McCloud is lining up 43-percent of the time. Drake London and Darnell Mooney will see some slot-snaps as well, but this price tag for McCloud is going to open up some salary elsewhere.

Brenton Strange, TE Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,500)

With no Evan Engram, Strange takes on an 82-percent snap share and was absolutely dominant with targets. In fact, in every game Engram has missed, Strange saw a 26.1-percent target share which is only behind rookie Brian Thomas.

No one else on that Jaguars team sees targets, so if that’s the case, he’s a lock play against the Raiders who allow the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position.

 

 

 

Best FanDuel DFS Week 16 Watch List

Jalen Hurts, QB Philadelphia Eagles ($8,600)

The price differential between Hurts and Josh Allen has me salivating overusing Hurts this week. He’s going to be playing in a competitive game against the Commanders while Allen will probably take it easy on himself and watch James Cook have all the fun. 

Washington isn’t giving up a ton of passing yards per game, but they’ve allowed the fifth-most passing touchdowns this season and are allowing a 98.9 passer rating which is the fifth-highest in the league.

Bucky Irving, RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,800)

Forget about the split with Rachaad White. When Irving is good to go, he’s the lead back in this offense and he’s got 100-yard efforts in two of his last three games. 

Now he’s facing Dallas who allow the fourth-most rushing yards per game and have allowed a league-high 22 rushing touchdowns this season? Yes, please! Bucky to the moon this week! FanDuel only, by the way.

Jameson Williams, WR Detroit Lions ($6,100)

The Lions get the Bears this week and we know top cover-corner Jaylon Johnson will be on Amon-Ra St. Brown most of the time. When St. Brown is in the slot, the Lions will keep Jamo away from Johnson and line him up against Tyrique Stevenson. 

You remember him, right? The guy who was taunting the crowd versus Washington and tipped the Hail Mary into the hands of Noah Brown? Yeah. He’s got the Bears ranking 31st in DVOA against the opposing WR2 which means Jamo is my guy.

Jake Ferguson, TE Dallas Cowboys ($5,300)

Another FanDuel-only play here, but definitely worth the look at this price. The Buccaneers still rank 27th in DVOA against the tight end and they are still giving up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position. 

He didn’t pop against the Bengals last week like we hoped, but I’m willing to give him another shot. 

 

 
 

 

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