Monday Night Football delivers a two-game slate for the second straight week. And truthfully, this won’t be the last as we’ll get a pair of games on Monday night in Week 7. Even in Week 16 we get a pair of Saturday games, following by a pair of Wednesday games in Week 17 on Christmas Day. So the NFL, being the ratings monster that it is, is shoving football down our throats, and we have no reason to complain.

This second game of the Monday Night Football doubleheader is easily the more watchable contest. The first game between the Tennessee Titans and Miami Dolphins could be ugly. This potential NFC playoff preview should have more offense as the teams could likely benefit from the controlled environment. Let’s start looking at the top NFL DFS Seahawks vs. Lions picks for our contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Seahawks vs. Lions Monday Night Football Playbook

These two teams are contenders in the NFC. Mike MacDonald has Seattle off to a 3-0 start under the new regime and we haven’t even seen this Ryan Grubb offense really hit its stride just yet. But the Seahawks have looked great through three games and can get better as they look to move to 4-0.

The Detroit Lions are 2-1 while not having quite looked like their old selves from 2023. They’re averaging just over 20 points per game but have mostly played to the level of their opponents through three games. Sam LaPorta was a rookie sensation at the tight end position in 2023 but he’s been hampered by injuries of late, and even before that, his volume was way down from last year.

So the Seahawks are trending in the right direction, while the Lions still tout a great duo in the backfield with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. And we also can note that the passing game still features plenty of weapons for Jared Goff to distribute the ball evenly.

But these two teams are starting to form a fun rivalry in the NFC even if they aren’t in the same division. They met last year in Week 2 with the Seahawks winning a 37-31 shootout in overtime. In Week 4 of 2022, Seattle again got the best of Detroit in a higher scoring affair with 93 total points. In Week 17 in 2021 the Seahawks won 51-29. If this becomes an annual matchup in the NFC, then we should be at least intrigued due to the offensive output from the previous meetings.

 

 

 

Seahawks vs. Lions MNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Lions -4.5 (-108)
  • Money Line:
    • Seahawks (+164)
    • Lions (-198)
  • Game Total: Over 47 (-110) / Under 47 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Lions -4.5 (-105)
  • Money Line:
    • Seahawks (+176)
    • Lions (-210)
  • Game Total: Over 46.5 (-110) / Under 46.5 (-110)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Seahawks vs. Lions MNF, September 30th

This game will be played indoors in a controlled environment. That has typically played into the hands of the Detroit Lions the past few seasons and should once again give them an edge Monday night.

Seahawks vs. Lions Notable Injuries & Inactives

The Seahawks basically listed everyone and their mother on their injury report. The good news for this offense is that Kenneth Walker is slated to return. The Zach Charbonnet experiment was fun, and quite honestly, the kid handled volume well even if he wasn’t particularly efficient. But this coaching staff raved about Walker in training camp and we should assume he resumes his role.

Defensively, Seattle could be hurting. They’ve already ruled out Boye Mafe, Byron Murphy II, Uchenna Nwosu, and Leonard Williams. On top of that, Jerome Baker is questionable after not practicing most of the week and logging a limited session on Saturday.

The Detroit Lions have one of the best offensive lines in the league, but they’ll be without Frank Ragnow Monday night after he tore his pec. That should be worth noting, but it likely doesn’t crush this offense’s upside by any means, but it’s interesting that they have not placed him on IR yet.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Titans vs. Dolphins Monday Night Football, 9/30

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions - DraftKings: $11,200 | FanDuel: $15,000

It makes too much sense to have ARSB as the most expensive play on both sites. Volume was a bit worrisome following the six targets he saw in Week 1. But in his last two games he’s caught 18-of-27 targets for 194 yards and a score. 

If you’ll recall last Thursday’s NFL DFS Showdown Playbook, you’ll remember the stat regarding Malik Nabers’ 11 targets deemed open by Fantasy Points Data. Well through three games, ARSB was tied with Nabers with 11 as well.

Entering Week 4, ARSB was third among all receivers in the league with a 29% target per route run rate, and while he may have seen some regression in his first-read target share rate, last week he still flaunted a 36% target share. It has helped that the Lions haven’t gotten Sam LaPorta heavily involved, but ARSB is still Goff’s go-to guy and Seattle’s defense is coming in a little beat up.

DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $13,500

We’re potentially looking at a third straight 100-yard effort from Metcalf in this matchup. Look at what happened last week. Even in a small sample size, Seattle used Metcalf in shorter routes and he was still able to make his own big plays against the Miami Dolphins. Geno Smith was pressured on 42% of his drop backs with an average of 2.64 seconds from snap-to-release.

Doesn’t it feel like Aiden Hutchinson and this Detroit defense could push Seattle into a similar game script? And while I’ll get to another Seattle receiver next that could benefit even more, Metcalf just has such a strong footprint in this offense. Since the start of 2023 he’s averaging 0.43 fantasy points per route run, and entering Week 3 he ranked 10th among all receivers with 2.50 yards per route run and he accounted for 50% of his team’s air yards. So I love the fact that even if the deep targets may be few and far between in this matchup, we just saw Metcalf go for over 100 yards on shorter routes last week.

Jameson William, WR, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $6,800 | FanDuel: $10,500

This pricing is definitely in a response to his poor outing in Week 3 where he saw just three targets. But through the first two games, Williams was actually fifth in expected points according to Fantasy Points Data and that’s impressive when you consider ARSB was sixth.

Through the team’s first two games, Williams also saw 20 first-read targets (and he had a 24.7%  target per route run rate, which was on par with Metcalf’s rate through two games). By comparison, ARSB was at 18 first-read targets. So the Week 3 dud has skewed pricing a bit. So I love this spot for Williams and he certainly can break the slate as he’s shown rapport with Jared Goff on connecting for big plays. Has he caught less than half his targets? Yes. But his targets are at least going further down field.

Seattle’s defense is a bit beat up heading into this matchup, so I definitely want to attack with Detroit’s passing game.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $6,600 | FanDuel: $10,000

Similar to Jameson Williams, JSN is looking at a discounted price tag because of last week’s performance. I don’t mind it too much considering JSN has been getting open. Smith-Njigba has eight targets deemed open by Fantasy Points Data, which is just three behind ARSB and Nabers.

Following Week 2’s monstrous game, he had a dozen first-read targets which obviously doesn’t compare to the other three players in this section but there’s a tremendous opportunity if he can continue to capitalize on the increased route participation in his sophomore campaign. Tyler Lockett had the big game between the two last week. I’m going back to JSN this week and love the salary flexibility he provides on DraftKings.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions - DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $14,000

David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $8,600 | FanDuel: $12,000

Might as well write these two up together, right? They’ve both been fantastic for fantasy football. Sure, for DFS the presence of both likely keeps either from going off. But they’ve both provided a great floor through three weeks. The loss of Ragnow could impact the run game, but overall the offensive line is still great.

As a segue off the great offensive line, Gibbs has 71 rushing yards before contact and an additional 136 after contact. He didn’t catch a pass last week, but he did have 11 receptions on 13 targets in Weeks 1 and 2.

Montgomery has arguably been the better value in terms of DFS pricing and season-long ADP. He even has seven receptions over the last two games and he has found the end zone in each of the team’s first three games. Similar to Gibbs, 67 of his rushing yards have come before contact while 165 have come after.

And the red zone work has been relatively split between the two. Montgomery has had six opportunities inside the five, while Gibbs has seen five. And inside the five-yard line the opportunities are split at three each. So there’s volume and high value touches to go around and they’ve both shown they can be fantasy relevant.

Kenneth Walker, RB, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $11,500

Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $8,000

Well since we wrote up the Detroit running backs together, why not do the same for Seattle? In Week 1, Walker was dominating the workload split in this backfield. He saw about 80% of the snaps, had nearly a 60% route participation rate, and saw 80% of the red zone snap rates as well. And when Seattle was inside the 10-yard line they had a touchdown called back due to a penalty and then they tried to get Walker into the end zone on an incomplete pass. Assuming he’s active, I don’t think Seattle limits him because the coaching staff gave him so much praise in training camp.

But in his relief, Zach Charbonnet provided the goods through volume. He saw 40 total touches in Weeks 2 and 3 and scored three times. 137 of his 141 rushing yards have come after contact and he boasts a 38% avoided tackle rate.

In general, I do subscribe to the theory that nobody should lose their job because of an injury. So I’m operating as if Walker is #1 on Monday and Charbonnet is #2. But that still leaves room for Charbonnet to maybe see a dozen carries. I don’t like the price tag for Charb on DraftKings, but he’s actually a tremendous value on FanDuel’s single-game slate.

Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $12,500

Goff has been very underwhelming through three games. When you have the rushing duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, you don’t need to be a superhero every week.

Goff has just 723 passing yards through three weeks but three touchdowns and four interceptions. And we know he has minimal rushing upside so we don’t love him as an option at Captain. However, he works just fine as a Flex if you put any other skill position player from Detroit at Captain.

This game is projected for more scoring than the first option in our Monday Night Football doubleheader so there’s potential for a good floor. But if he attempts less than 30 passes (which has happened twice already this year), then we might be frustrated. But given the injuries to Seattle’s defense, this is a very good spot for Goff.

Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $13,000

Smith, like Goff, hasn’t showcased a massive ceiling yet but I do think the performances get better as he becomes more comfortable operating Ryan Grubb’s offense.

Smith has completed 74.8% of his pass attempts for 787 yards but for just three touchdowns. There is some appeal here as a runner, certainly more than Goff, but still not very much to feel good about playing him at Captain. The Lions have not allowed much production to opposing quarterbacks and that’s a credit to their pass rush. But Geno is a good enough correlation play that we can lock him into most lineups Monday night.

Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $7,200 | FanDuel: $9,500

LaPorta has definitely been disappointing. I actually don’t anticipate significant ownership coming his way for a couple reasons. For starters, he was briefly carted off in last week’s game with an ankle sprain. He actually did try to play through it but was definitely limited in the second half.

To go with the injury, the target share and volume has greatly disappointed. He has just eight receptions on 10 total targets. Even through two games, he only had a 10% target share, but he at least had an 82% route participation rate which ranked seventh at the tight end position. He’s definitely seen a lot of his work go to Jameson Williams. But for a Showdown contest, I may limit exposure. If it weren’t for the ankle injury I’d consider this a leverage play. But I may temper expectations as the Lions have other weapons they can beat Seattle with.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $5,600 | FanDuel: $9,500

Lockett’s probably a better value on DraftKings. A week after garnering eight targets, DraftKings has him priced down. I do think they go back to JSN and maybe relegate Lockett to more work in three-wide receiver sets as we saw in Seattle’s first two games. But coming off last week’s game, maybe he made a case to the coaching staff that he still has some gas in the tank.

Lockett sometimes isn’t great after the catch. He’s managed to have such a lengthy career because he’s smart enough to go down safely after registering the catch. But there’s still some big play potential here and Lockett can be a great piece to any Seattle stack for the two-game slate.

Noah Fant, TE, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $8,000

This is what I meant when I said Zach Charbonnet was a great value on FanDuel. Charbonnet still has a path to 10-12 touches in this game. So why is he the same price as Noah Fant? Beats me!

But I still like Fant even if he is the fourth option in the passing game. Seattle did part ways with Colby Parkinson and Will Dissly in the offseason and they gave Fant a new contract. So obviously he has something they like. He boasts a 17% target per route run rate, which isn’t monstrous in the grand scheme of things but it’s at least 11th among all tight ends in the NFL. In Week 3 he caught all six of his targets for 60 yards.

Brock Wright, TE, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $3,200 | FanDuel: $7,500

There aren’t really many punt plays I love for these MNF DFS picks. Truthfully, this is one of the worst games so far this year in terms of punt/value options. That speaks to how good the talent pool is in the mid-and-top tiers. 

And Wright isn’t necessarily a slam dunk. We would’ve loved this option had Sam LaPorta missed the game. When LaPorta was hobbled last week, Wright caught four-of-five targets. So with this play, you’re kind of hoping he can get a few more reps if LaPorta is limited. Otherwise, we’re going to be throwing darts to try and find value on this slate.

 

 

 

MNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

I can’t make a great case for the Seattle Seahawks defense on this slate. They are without four key players for this game, the Lions have an implied team total of about 25-26 points, and the Seahawks haven’t forced a turnover since Week 1. So it’s difficult to feel good about them. They had six sacks last week, but that was going against one of the worst offensive lines in the league (the Miami Dolphins). Now they have to go toe-to-toe with arguably the best offensive line in the league? Best of luck!

The Detroit Lions are an okay option on this slate. Their pass rush could force Seattle to quicker and shorter routes which we still like for Seattle. But Detroit has been very tough to run on and that’s one concern regarding Walker and Charbonnet. The Lions have only allowed 230 rushing yards in three games. If playing the two-game slate and you’re stacking this game with skill position players, maybe look to the other game for a D/ST option.

Both kickers, Jason Myers and Jake Bates, make for great correlation plays. Myers so far this year has had seven field goal attempts and seven extra points attempts. Bates has had just one game so far this year where he didn’t have any field goal attempts and that came last week. With Seattle hurting defensively, I expect Detroit to move the ball with ease and get him multiple looks in this matchup. The Lions have seen opposing kickers put up at least nine fantasy points in three straight games. Seattle has been fortunate that opposing kickers have missed two kicks already this year, but there have still been eight attempts.

 

 

 

Seahawks vs. Lions DFS Player Pool, 9/30

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