Week 1 is nearly in the books and it’s been an eventful one, for sure. The Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs delivered an exciting game Thursday night and it was very close to going to overtime. Friday night saw a barn burner in Brazil between the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers. What can we expect on Monday Night Football with Aaron Rodgers making his return from the Achilles injury from a year ago? Let’s lock in and start preparing for our DraftKings and FanDuel contests with the NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook; Jets vs. 49ers Game Preview

This is actually a very interesting matchup for Monday Night Football. You have the New York Jets with a very small window to win a Super Bowl after going all in to acquire Aaron Rodgers at the tail end of his career. We all know how 2023 played out for Rodgers and the injury. And obviously, it was a lost year for the New York Jets, something their fans have probably grown accustomed to.

On the other end of the spectrum, we have the San Francisco 49ers. This team has been knocking on the door of a Super Bowl victory the last few years but have not broken through. They’ve given out big contracts the last few years and eventually they’ll have to figure out what to do with Brock Purdy, who has been playing on his rookie contract. But they’re once again favorites in the NFC with a very difficult matchup as the Jets secondary is all around one of the best in the league.

I’ve written four NFL DFS Playbooks so far for Week 1. This is the one where I have more uncertainty and less conviction. The analysis is there but between injuries, lack of training camp preparation for certain players, and the matchups? This game could really go in a few different directions so if entering multiple lineups, it might be best to build out different structures. As we hit submit on our builds we need to ask ourselves if the build makes sense, after all…

 

 

 

Jets vs. 49ers MNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: 49ers -4 (-112)
  • Money Line:
    • Jets (+170)
    • 49ers (-205)
  • Game Total: Over 43.5 (-110) / Under 43.5 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: 49ers -3.5 (-115)
  • Money Line:
    • Jets (+172)
    • 49ers (-205)
  • Game Total: Over 43.5 (-115) / Under 43.5 (-105)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Jets vs. 49ers SNF, September 9th

It will be a beautiful day in Northern California with temps in the mid-80’s all day but like dropping to the low 70’s, maybe high 60’s around kickoff. Wind gusts will be within 10-15 MPH but overall it’ll be a beautiful night to close out Week 1.

 

Jets vs. 49ers Notable Injuries & Inactives

Aaron Rodgers isn’t on the injury report but the Achilles injury from one year ago after just four offensive snaps looms large. There was plenty of misinformation spread about his potential return (mostly by Rodgers, himself) but ultimately he missed the entire year as we all expected. It’s been an interesting offseason for the Jets with Rodgers missing mandatory OTA’s, getting into heated discussions with Garrett Wilson, but at the end of the day there is still a window for the Jets to contend. Wes Schweitzer has been ruled out for this game, which is a hit to the offensive line, but the offense can still hum along to the tune just fine with Rodgers under center.

The San Francisco 49ers weren’t short of their own drama in the offseason. Brandon Aiyuk held out for a contract extension and after negotiations seemed to be made a little too public, both sides struck a deal and the 49ers bring back one of the league’s best wide receivers. Additionally, they locked up Trent Williams on a new contract, which is great for the offense overall and protecting Brock Purdy.

What isn’t great is they come in a bit hobbled. On the defensive side of the ball they’ll be without Yetur Gross-Matos and Dee Winters while Talanoa Hufanga is doubtful as well. And to make matters worse, Christian McCaffrey is questionable with a lower leg injury. He was a limited participant in practice all week and the outlook became more murky as the week progressed. But if he’s active, he’s an easy Captain candidate for the NFL DFS Monday Night Football Showdown Playbook.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Monday Night Football

Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers - DraftKings: $11,600 | FanDuel: $17,500

McCaffrey is questionable with a calf/Achilles injury. But at the end of the day, the analysis is brief here. The upside is massive. He’s a running back heavily involved in his offense as a runner and pass catcher.

I’m not going to be one of those idiots trying to predict an injury-filled season for CMC. I take the hands I’m dealt. If he’s active, I’ll get exposure. If not, we pivot. Between the regular season and playoffs last year, McCaffrey had 331 carries and 86 receptions on 108 targets with a total of 26 touchdowns. In seven games last year he scored multiple touchdowns. That’s outstanding when looking at potential MVP/Captain candidates for the NFL DFS Monday Night Football Showdown Playbook.

It’s a tough matchup on both sides of the ball, but CMC is a guy who is accompanied by volume and I won’t fade that kind of upside if he’s active.

Update: Christian McCaffrey has been ruled OUT for tonight's game. Jordan Mason is expected to start.

Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets - DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $15,000

One of my favorite first-round Best Ball selections this year was Breece Hall because he could have a CMC-esque season in 2024. For whatever reason last year in Week 18, the Jets fed him the ball 39 times against the New England Patriots and he went off for 190 all-purpose yards.

We can’t expect that kind of volume every week. But it was also a meaningless game for the Jets and they still gave him the ball at a ridiculous clip. 

In 2023, Hall totaled 994 rushing yards and 591 receiving yards and he even said he didn’t feel he was 100% explosive coming off the ACL tear. Opposing defenses should genuinely be terrified for what he can do at full strength because he can break any slate given the talent and improved offensive line blocking for him.

Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets - DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $12,500

The beautiful thing about the Jets offense is that we know where the volume/workload/targets are concentrated. It’s Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson… And that’s about it!

Now that doesn’t mean they’re going to account for every touch and yard. But in 2022 and 2023, Wilson accounted for 46% of the Jets end zone targets and last year he registered 46% of the team’s air yards. If you have simply just watched Wilson play football, you know he passes the eyeball test. He’s a great route runner and in my opinion, he’s probably top five in terms of gaining separation from defenders.

And honestly, iron sharpens iron. Wilson gets to work with Sauce Gardner every single week and the two have said repeatedly that working together only makes the two of them better. And hopefully with Aaron Rodgers potentially healthy for a full season, Wilson can really show what he’s capable of.

George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers - DraftKings: $7,400 | FanDuel: $11,000

This seems a little off the wall and I get why some people might be scratching their heads. But I’ll touch on why I’m glossing over the two San Francisco receivers shortly. But I do like Kittle a little bit as a Captain candidate for a few NFL DFS Showdown builds if making multiple lineups.

For starters, similar to the CMC section, we love those big spike weeks and when a player can find the end zone multiple times. Kittle had five games of 22+ fantasy points on DraftKings last year and that’s the kind of spike performance we need. Granted, there were some low volume performances last year for Kittle as well.

In three playoff games last year he had a total of just 13 targets. Moreover, he had seven performances in the regular season last year where he had four targets or less. So yes, that kind of performance is not going to be optimal. 

Between 2022 and 2023, when all four of McCaffrey, Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk have been on the field, Kittle has had just a 16.1% target share and that dips to 14% in the red zone. But we’re chasing spike weeks and he may be relatively under-owned at Captain for this slate.

 

NFL Monday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers - DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $11,500

Now I did exclude Deebo and Aiyuk from the Captain/MVP section. This is just my own personal read because both are outstanding at what they do. And referring back to the target share when the main four weapons for San Francisco are on the field? Deebo has led them all with a 27.5% target share and 26% red zone target share.

But this matchup is certainly concerning. The Jets will return the secondary of Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed, and Michael Carter II. Per Mike Clay of ESPN, the Jets allowed the fewest receptions, yards, touchdowns, and fantasy points to wide receivers last year.

I do think there will still be potential for Deebo and Aiyuk to receive volume, but the production could be minimal so I’m hesitant to recommend them at Captain.

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers - DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $10,000

A lot of what we just touched on with Deebo applies to Aiyuk. The matchup is very tough. I even think Aiyuk is the best receiver on the 49ers, but they use both players in plenty of creative ways and have even drawn up designed runs for both.

And again, when all four of their best weapons are on the field dating back to 2022, Aiyuk has a 22% target share but that drops to 14% in the red zone.

And we’re also discussing a player that was a holdout during camp. At one point it seemed like he was going to be traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers. So if you’re weary of how “ready” he is, then I get it. I’ll still mix in some shares and maybe play him at Captain in some builds. But the matchup concerns me more than the fact he held out.

Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers - DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $14,500

The quarterbacks in this game are reminiscent to how I’m approaching the position for the Sunday Night Football matchup. These QB’s just don’t have a ton of rushing upside so you can largely just play them as Flex options.

Purdy appeared to play much better at home last year than on the road. The completion rate was three percentage points better at home than on the road and he averaged 298.3 yards per game at home than on the road last year. That’s impressive since we do value that 300-yard bonus on DraftKings.

Now with that said, he still has to distribute the ball against a very talented secondary so he may have a little more difficulty getting to 300 yards. But if you’re playing any of his weapons at Captain, he slots in perfectly as a flex play.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, New York Jets - DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $14,000

If you’ve read my previous NFL DFS Showdown Playbooks, you’ll know that I love quarterbacks with rushing upside. Considering that Aaron Rodgers turns 41 in December and is coming off a torn Achilles I think we can assume he won’t be running very much, although Mark Lammey does think he can hit the over on his rushing prop.

But the Jets did make a concerted effort in the offseason to improve the offensive line. They know the window is short to capitalize and win a Super Bowl. He does have two of the best skill position players at his disposal that he can get the ball to and there are some other options for him on this slate that can keep the Jets in contention.

I do think there’s potential for Rodgers to maybe go for 300+ passing yards and a pair of touchdowns. That’s 23 fantasy points on DraftKings at the minimum. The only reason I’m not going to be playing him at Captain is because if he does hit that mark for yardage, then I believe it’s one of his skill position players that is optimal for this slate.

 

NFL Monday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Mike Williams, WR, New York Jets - DraftKings: $6,600 | FanDuel: $9,000

Mike Williams comes over from the Los Angeles Chargers and he’s coming off a torn ACL in Week 3 last year. Williams is unfortunately a bit of a running joke because he’s struggled to stay healthy throughout his NFL career.

But we do forget that he did have 26 targets in not even three whole games with the Bolts last year and in the game he did tear his ACL he had seven receptions for 128 yards and a touchdown.

He practiced in full this past week, but the Jets have acknowledged he may be a little limited as he continues to work his way back so tread carefully.

I will also say this regarding pricing on DraftKings; there aren’t many mid-range skill position plays. You either play around up top mixing and matching the players we’ve already discussed or you’re taking your own risks in the value plays below. Williams is the only mid-tier play for this slate on DraftKings because the kickers and D/ST’s are priced right below him. So if the rep limitations give you some pause, just know you don’t have to go with this play.

 

 

 

NFL Monday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Tyler Conklin, TE, New York Jets - DraftKings: $3,600 | FanDuel: $8,000

Coop may not like this play as much as me, but Conklin is probably my favorite paydown option on this slate. That’s not to say I think he has a performance similar to Isaiah Likely on Thursday. But finding the end zone is certainly on the table for Conklin.

We’ve seen Rodgers lean heavily on tight ends in the past and he has had plenty of route involvement among tight ends the past few seasons. In this tier we’re kind of looking for touchdown upside and some targets. Conklin actually had a dozen games last year where he was targeted at least five times. But the quarterback play was atrocious for the Jets. A jar of mayonnaise could’ve done better helping Conklin get in the end zone.

He had 621 receiving yards a year ago, which was a career high but didn’t find the end zone. He could definitely have an even better year with Rodgers under center and mind you, Rodgers once helped a guy like Robert Tonyan get 11 touchdowns in a season.

Jauan Jennings, WR, San Francisco 49ers - DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $8,000

Jennings is an intriguing value on this slate for the obvious reasons that he knows the offense, he did get additional work in terms of reps while Aiyuk held out, and Ricky Pearsall is going to miss the start of the season.

We did note earlier in the article how good this Jets secondary is. I imagine Jennings lines up mostly in the slot, but even to slot receivers in 2023 the Jets allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points. I don’t think he’s just an 11 personnel option for San Francisco either. I do think he sees some two-wide receiver sets as well but production has never consistently been there for Jennings.

Allen Lazard, WR, New York Jets - DraftKings: $2,000 | FanDuel: $7,000

I don’t particularly love this play just because we know the concentrated volume will be so heavily in favor of Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. You do have to wonder how much will be available for Lazard.

But at the end of the day, Lazard did come over from the Green Bay Packers with Aaron Rodgers so the chemistry and rapport is there. A year ago for this Week 1 NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook, Lazard was $6,400 against the Buffalo Bills on DraftKings. That price has been slashed down to $2,000 and while I’ll mix in some shares of players like Xavier Gipson and Malachi Corley I do think Rodgers has more trust in Lazard currently.

 

 

 

MNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

This is the fourth Showdown Playbook of the season already and this is probably the most comfortable I’ve been going to the D/ST’s on either side.

If you’re chasing upside, I have acknowledged that I do believe Kyle Shanahan is the kind of offensive mind that can draw up some fun run design concepts for the new NFL kickoff rules. Rookie receiver Jacob Cowing is listed as the team’s punt returner while backup running back Jordan Mason is listed as the team’s kicker returner. If, for whatever reason, Christian McCaffrey was ruled out for this game, Mason would become a smash play at his price tag.

The one problem I do have with the 49ers D/ST is that $5,200 price tag on DraftKings. I think it’s a little reactive to how bad the Jets offense was a year ago. But we should raise our expectations a bit. But the game still has a rather low implied total and we saw them collect sacks and turnovers in bunches a year ago.

The Jets D/ST actually had some spike weeks in 2023, including Week 1 after Aaron Rodgers got hurt where the defense had five sacks, four forced turnovers, and a touchdown to boot. On DraftKings last year they did have seven games where they returned double-digit fantasy points and in 11 games, they delivered at least eight fantasy points. 

So the floor isn’t terrible, but most will be turned off because of the matchup on paper against Kyle Shanahan’s offense. But given the narratives coming into this season (CMC’s leg injury so far, Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk holding out) there might be more reasons to lean into the Jets D/ST on the backs of their talented secondary.

The kickers make for great correlated plays per usual. There’s more correlation with kickers when you play the quarterback position at Captain. However, on this slate I’m not optimistic about either Purdy or Rodgers as Captain options. But both kickers are still fine. The downside is the pricing, which I mentioned just below the Mike Williams section.

This could be a great week for Jake Moody who started last season with three field goals and three extra points in each of the team’s first three games. However, down the stretch the volume fell off a bit and that speaks to San Francisco’s efficiency and ability to score at will. From weeks 4 through 18 Moody attempted a total of just 16 field goals. Extra points attempts can certainly be there in any game San Francisco is playing but that won’t be enough to be optimal.

Greg Zuerlein was an outstanding play for DFS last year. He was the ultimate boom/bust option and it was always dependent on the volume and opportunity. He had eight games a year ago with at least three field goal attempts, but he also had three games with no attempts. Obviously, we should expect the offense to be more efficient moving the ball even in this matchup.

Zuerlein was good on 92.9% of his field goal attempts last year and is one of the best from long range. Both kickers are pricy but I’m content playing both if the narrative of your lineup makes sense.

 

Jets vs. 49ers DFS Player Pool

Player Pool

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