NFL DFS MNF Showdown Playbook For DraftKings & FanDuel: Vikings vs. Rams
Published: Jan 13, 2025
We wrap up Wild Card Weekend with one last NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook featuring the NFC West division winners, the Los Angeles Rams, taking on the Minnesota Vikings, who fell short of winning the NFC North last week.
This game will still take place in a controlled environment. However, due to the wildfires in Southern California, the game has been re-located to the Arizona Cardinals’ stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
Let’s take a look at the matchups to unearth our Vikings vs. Rams DFS picks for Monday Night Football.
NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook; Vikings vs. Rams Game Preview
We close out the first round of the playoff with a matchup out of the NFC featuring the Minnesota Vikings “visiting” the Los Angeles Rams in Glendale, Arizona. As mentioned earlier, this game had to be re-located due to the ongoing wildfires in Southern California. So obviously, it’s been a tough week for the whole organization. But Sean McVay is a Super Bowl winning head coach and will have his team ready and focused for this game.
The Minnesota Vikings had an opportunity to win their division and claim the top seed in the NFC. But they put up an absolute dud of a performance last week on Sunday Night Football and due to that loss, they go on the road as the 5-seed in the NFC.
Minnesota struck gold with Sam Darnold this year, but this only continues to establish how great of a coach Kevin O’Connell is. It’s another quarterback that has come in for Minnesota and managed to win games. It’ll be interesting to see how the Vikings move forward next year with J.J. McCarthy. Darnold has had some inconsistent play at times but he’s due for a nice payday in the offseason.
But the Vikings also got it done on defense. Their secondary leaves a lot to be desired but this is a defensive front that isn’t afraid to blitz at a high rate and get pressure on the opposing quarterback.
For the Los Angeles Rams, it took a while but once they got healthy, they hit the ground running and closed out the 2024 season with momentum and the NFC West crown. We can rant and rave about the likes of Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, and Cooper Kupp. But give credit where it’s due because the Rams drafted incredibly well. 2024 first-round draft pick, Jared Verse, was named to his first Pro Bowl and 2024 second-round pick, Braden Fiske, racked up eight sacks and was named to the All-Rookie team by PFWA.
These two teams met way back in Week 8 with the Rams getting the win 30-20. Let’s see if this game can match the offensive production and put us in the green to close out Wild Card Weekend!
Vikings vs. Rams MNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel
DraftKings Sportsbook
- Spread: Vikings: -2.5 (-108)
- Money Line:
- Vikings (-142)
- Rams (+120)
- Game Total: Over 47.5 (-115) / Under 47.5 (-105)
FanDuel Sportsbook
- Spread: Vikings -2.5 (-108)
- Money Line:
- Vikings (-134)
- Rams (+114)
- Game Total: Over 47.5 (-118) / Under 47.5 (-104)
Vikings vs. Rams Notable Injuries & Inactives
There was a bit of a bug that swept the Vikings locker room, but it appears that it won’t have too much of an impact on this game. It looks as if Cam Akers, Ty Chandler, and possibly a few others caught it but only linebacker Patrick Jones II has been ruled out for this NFC Wild Card matchup.
The Rams have had a difficult week with all that’s going on in Southern California at the moment. But their injury report is relatively clean without many names on it. With that said, we’ll still need to monitor inactives 90 minutes before kickoff.
NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Monday Night Football, 1/13
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings - DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $15,500
We definitely know what we’re getting with Jefferson at MVP/Captain. He possesses a high ceiling and he gets a healthy dose of targets. On the season he finished with 1,533 receiving yards. He came up 67 yards short of becoming the only receiver in NFL history to record three seasons with 1,600+ receiving yards. And he’s only in his fifth year.
Now he still posted 1,400+ receiving yards in four of his five seasons and has a very good matchup on Monday Night Football. Back in Week 8 against the Rams he caught eight-of-nine targets for 115 yards but that was also during his funky stretch where he couldn’t find the end zone.
But the Rams utilize a lot of zone coverage and single-high shells. Against zone, Jetta averages 2.85 YPRR and against single-high that goes up to 3.15 YPRR. The Rams are also bottom six in the NFL in yards per catch (11.6) and yards per attempt (7.6) so this could potentially be one of those games where he pops for 30+ fantasy points even if he may not see as much volume as the next player.
Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams – DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $15,000
Everyone is well aware that the Vikings secondary can be beaten by potent offenses if their defensive line can’t get pressure on the quarterback. In “home” games for Nacua, he’s averaging 9.4 receptions and 122.4(!) yards per game. Now this game is being played in Arizona so just be aware of the location change.
With Minnesota deploying a heavy zone coverage scheme, we’ve seen slot receivers pop off for big games. Amon-Ra St. Brown recently went for 112 receiving yards and Garrett Wilson popped for 101. But we also know the Vikings blitz at the highest rate of all teams (55%) and Nacua sees a 45% target share when Stafford is facing pressure.
Per Pro Football Focus, the Vikings play zone at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL and Nacua received the highest offensive grade against zone coverage among all wide receivers. In a game where his snaps were a bit limited back in Week 8 because he was coming back from injury, Nacua still put up seven catches for 106 yards.
Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams – DraftKings: $10,400 | FanDuel: $14,500
If nothing else, Kyren Williams has touchdown equity. He had six in his last six games while averaging nearly 4.4 yards per carry in that span. The matchup is tough, however. The Vikings defense ranked sixth in EPA/Play and with regard to stopping the run they ranked sixth in EPA/Rush, ninth in rush success rate, and ninth in yards per carry.
But we should also expect Matthew Stafford to face a significant amount of pressure in this matchup. Yes, that means plenty of targets to Puka Nacua. And yet, when these two teams met earlier this year, it was when both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returned from injury. In that matchup, Williams had five receptions and caught a touchdown pass while still adding 97 rushing yards on the ground.
We may not exactly see efficiency from Williams, but I am expecting more opportunities in the passing game than we’ve seen lately and it wouldn’t surprise me if he touched the ball 20+ times Monday night.
Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $10,000
There’s definitely variance here and I’m mostly leaning into the ceiling. Addison is coming off a game where he had just one reception for no yards on six targets. Even Jordan Addison’s father sounded off on how bad the game plan was last week against the Detroit Lions.
At the very least, Addison has at least six targets in eight straight games. Additionally, in six of those game he has at least eight targets. We also know he’s a big play threat with 10 touchdowns on the year on just 66 total touches.
He may be a better Flex play given the floor, but at his mid-range salary he has the potential to go for 100+ yards and find the end zone and he won’t garner the MVP/Captain exposure as much as some other players that have already been discussed.
Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday
Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $14,000
Week 18 didn’t go according to plan for Darnold and Co. He looked very pedestrian and human after throwing a dozen touchdowns from Weeks 14-17. On the season, Darnold was great and should still be a sought-after quarterback in free agency. He finished sixth in yards per attempt (7.92) and he was third in completion percentage over expected (CPOE) at 5.7%.
Darnold struggled last week against the Lions who blitz a good amount, but that shouldn’t be a problem for the Vikings quarterback Monday night. Since Week 10, the Rams have blitzed at a 27.4% rate and they’re bottom 10 in DB success rate.
These two teams did meet way back in Week 8 in L.A. and it was a rather ho-hum game for Darnold. He completed 18-of-25 pass attempts for 240 yards and a pair of touchdowns for 18.2 fantasy points. It wasn’t the best fantasy outing by any means, but the matchup is ripe for the picking and I think he bounces back after last week’s debacle.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $11,000
Cooper Kupp has taken the backseat to Puka Nacua of late. To close out the 2024 season, Kupp had just four receptions in his last three games (remember, he did not play in Week 18), and he had just nine total targets in that span.
You can chalk it up to a variety of things. Maybe the Rams were just trying to preserve him and make sure he was healthy for the playoffs. I don’t quite know if I buy that narrative simply because they were still competing for the division crown up until Week 17. But 12 catches over his final five games are quite alarming.
The matchup is good and there’s name recognition here that was enough to list him in the article, but that’s one man’s opinion. The Vikings allowed the second-most receptions and yards to opposing receivers this past season. We do prefer Nacua in this matchup but perhaps there are enough pass attempts where the Rams can get their veteran receiver going.
Matthew Stafford, WR, Los Angeles Rams – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $12,500
Similar to Kupp, it wasn’t a great finish to the 2024 season for Stafford. But he, like plenty of starters, got Week 18 off since it was a meaningless game, and he should be well rested ahead of a great matchup. Above all else, I’m listing Stafford because if you put any of the Rams skill position players at MVP/Captain you should probably correlate the play with Stafford in the flex.
When these teams played each other in Week 8, Stafford completed 73.5% of his pass attempts for 279 yards and he threw four touchdowns as well. The big concerns with Stafford likely stem from the four games he had from Weeks 13-17 where he threw for fewer than 200 passing yards.
At this point we’ve touched on the struggles of the Minnesota secondary and Stafford will need to get the ball out quickly in order to rack up the passing yards and touchdowns. With a full arsenal of weapons for this game, I think he’ll do just that.
Aaron Jones, RB, Minnesota Vikings – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $12,000
Volume and efficiency often get called into question with Jones, but he provides a good floor for our Vikings vs. Rams DFS picks. In all but two games this year he returned double-digit fantasy points on DraftKings. Coincidentally enough, the two games he didn’t reach double digits are the two games he did not catch multiple passes.
Jones was not efficient when these two teams met back in Week 8. He averaged just 3.1 yards per carry on 19 attempts, but he added a pair of receptions for 37 yards. Ball security was a bit of a concern back in November but that wasn’t an issue across his last five games.
Even if Jones isn’t efficient there’s an opportunity for 15-20 total touches. The Rams allow the fourth-most total yardage (rushing and receiving) to opposing running backs. He doesn’t have quite the ceiling of other players on the slate, but I like him as a flex play for the relatively safe floor he provides as a mid-range target on both sites.
NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings – DraftKings: $5,600 | FanDuel: $9,500
Hockenson has had funky usage of late. Last week he put up a dud against his former team, the Detroit Lions, but he still had eight targets. And although he missed the first half of the season, he’s a player who just hasn’t found the end zone this year.
But the Rams run a lot of zone coverage and Hockenson can take advantage in this spot as Los Angeles allowed the seventh-most receiving yards and sixth-most receptions to the tight end position this year. To close out the season, the Rams allowed Trey McBride to go for 123 yards (while most of their starters rested) but Tyler Conklin and Noah Fant recorded 59 and 63 yards respectively.
He may be a better consideration to bet on in terms of his receptions and receiving yardage offerings simply because the floor is so low. But I’ll take a few stabs on him as a flex play assuming most players skip over him.
Cam Akers, RB, Minnesota Vikings – DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $7,500
I prefer the price tag more on FanDuel than DraftKings as this is a hefty price for a backup running back. And I am operating as if the Vikings give most of the running back work to Jones since we’ve reached the playoffs.
Akers does still have a chance to secure maybe six-to-eight carries while adding a pair of receptions. But with minimal volume we do need him to find the end zone to have any shot at being in the optimal lineup.
Demarcus Robinson, WR, Los Angeles Rams – DraftKings: $4,200 | FanDuel: $8,000
Robinson is coming off a productive game in Week 18 where he caught three-of-six targets for 72 yards. However, that came when the Rams were resting guys like Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. For this game he likely reverts back to the Rams WR3.
And the downside with this offense is that everything is rather consolidated. Most of the workload goes to Nacua, Williams, or Kupp. From Weeks 14-17, Robinson didn’t record a single fantasy point and had a total of five targets. But if this turns into a high scoring affair we should be mindful of Robinson in addition to the likes of Tutu Atwell and Jordan Whittington, who could hit the optimal lineup with a big score to open up the slate.
Jalen Nailor, WR, Minnesota Vikings – DraftKings: $3,600 | FanDuel: $8,000
We don’t have many great punt options on this slate. However, Nailor did get some run late in the season after getting off to a hot start in 2024. In Week 18, in a meaningful game, he caught three-of-four targets for 53 yards. And in Week 17 he caught all five of his targets for 81 yards and a score.
So he at least does get consideration when the Vikings are running three-wide receiver sets and he’s very good at getting open. I suspect the zone coverage the Rams will deploy favors every pass catcher on the Vikings. Because of the recent stat lines that’ll likely push his ownership above the other options listed in this section so we shouldn’t go to him in all builds because of the savings. We’ll need to get a little creative.
Vikings vs. Rams DFS Player Pool, 1/13
Player Pool
$ Tier | WR | K | RB | DST | QB | TE |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
High | Justin Jefferson $15,500 | Kyren Williams $14,500 | Sam Darnold $14,000 | |||
Puka Nacua $15,000 | Matthew Stafford $12,500 | |||||
Medium | Cooper Kupp $11,000 | Aaron Jones $12,000 | Minnesota Vikings $9,500 | T.J. Hockenson $9,500 | ||
Jordan Addison $10,000 | ||||||
Low | Demarcus Robinson $8,000 | Will Reichard $9,000 | Cam Akers $7,500 | Los Angeles Rams $8,500 | Josh Oliver $7,000 | |
Tutu Atwell $7,500 | Joshua Karty $9,000 | |||||
Jordan Whittington $6,000 | ||||||
Jalen Nailor $8,000 |
Player News
Bills LT Dion Dawkins (illness) did not participate in Wednesday’s practice.
Bills opened LB Baylon Spector’s 21-day practice window to return from injured reserve.
Eagles C Cam Jurgens (back) did not practice on Wednesday.
Ravens signed WR Anthony Miller to a reserve/futures contract.
A.J. Brown (knee/rest) was limited in Wednesday’s practice.
Eagles WR/PR Britain Covey (neck) was limited in Wednesday’s practice.