For the third time in four weeks, we’re getting the Pittsburgh Steelers in primetime! It may not be overly exciting, but they are 5-2 despite the quarterback controversy the team has endured throughout the first two months of the season. But the New York Giants come to town for an inter-conference matchup between two storied franchises and we have you covered with the latest NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook!

 

 

 

NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook; Giants vs. Steelers Game Preview

The New York Giants sit at 2-5, as most probably expected of them. There have been high points and there have been plenty of low points as well. Malik Nabers has definitely been a big addition for the G-Men and it did not take long for his breakout to happen. But at the end of the day, the rest of the offense has struggled as Daniel Jones and Co. have scored a total of 10 points in their last two games, and Jones found himself getting benched last week against the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Steelers are a different story. Mike Tomlin has put on a coaching masterclass to get the Steelers to 5-2 and a win tonight will give them sole possession of the lead for the AFC North.

Russell Wilson officially made his Steelers debut in Week 7 after Justin Fields just didn’t quite do enough to earn Tomlin’s full vote of confidence. In Wilson’s first game as the starter, he threw for 264 yards, a pair of touchdowns, while also adding another on the ground. 

But it’s important to note that the organization remained dedicated to its run heavy approach as they attempted 36 rushes, a signature of an Arthur Smith offense, and Najee Harris ran for over 100 yards for the second straight game.

We have two teams going in the opposite direction, and the sportsbooks aren’t expecting much action for this game. But let’s dig into the latest NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook.

 

 

 

Giants vs. Steelers MNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Steelers -6 (-108)
  • Money Line:
    • Giants (+210)
    • Steelers (-258)
  • Game Total: Over 36.5 (-108) / Under 36.5 (-112)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Steelers -5.5 (-120)
  • Money Line:
    • Giants (+220)
    • Steelers (-270)
  • Game Total: Over 36.5 (-110) / Under 36.5 (-110)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Giants vs. Steelers MNF, October 28th

We’re getting deeper into the fall season so games in the North will see cooler weather going forward. Temperatures will be in the high 50’s for this game and lightly cooling off throughout. There is no rain in the forecast and winds will not be a factor.

 

Giants vs. Steelers Notable Injuries & Inactives

The New York Giants are a little beat up on the defensive side of the ball. Adoree' Jackson has been ruled out. Additionally, Cordale Flott is doubtful and Tre Hawkins III is questionable. So the secondary is going through it as even Brian Burns was limited in practice this week with a groin/Achilles injury. Additionally, It’s also worth mentioning that the Giants lost Andrew Thomas for the season and that is a huge downgrade to the offensive line.

Fortunately for the Giants defense, the Steelers offense was spread out among their latest injury report heading into this game. On the offensive line the Steelers won’t have Dylan Cook and Zach Frazier. Moreover, they’ll be without Cordarrelle Patterson and Roman Wilson who provide a little depth at the running back and wide receiver positions. Strangely enough, Justin Fields also popped up on the injury report with a hamstring injury so he’s questionable despite no longer holding onto the starting quarterback job.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Monday Night Football, 10/28

Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants - DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $16,500

There are some concerns with this matchup for Nabers that we’ll get to. But obviously we know there’s massive upside here. From Weeks 2-4 prior to getting his concussion, he had 30 receptions on 45 targets with three touchdowns in as many games and he put up 26+ fantasy points on DraftKings in all three games.

On the year he has a 31.9% target per route run rate and he’s averaging 0.53 fantasy points per route run. Both metrics are top 10 at the wide receiver position. He’s coming off a game where he had a 30% target share but now we dig into the concerns...

Per Jacob Gibbs of CBS Sports, the Eagles generated a 41% pressure rate on just a 3% blitz rate last week. They weren’t even trying to blitz the quarterback and yet they had no issue once Andrew Thomas went down. Nabers sees a 45% TPRR when Jones is not pressured. That number drops to 19% when Jones is pressured.

Moreover, we should expect Joey Porter to shadow Nabers in this spot. Porter has probably been getting hungry in terms of a shadow job as he hasn’t done it in a few weeks. But when he was tasked with shadowing Drake London, Courtland Sutton, and Quentin Johnston he allowed a total of five receptions for 85 yards combined to those three receivers.

The pressure and shadow coverage give me some pause. But Nabers is still an elite talent and we’re short of studs in this game to start at Captain with confidence. I’m still expecting plenty of targets to go his way in this matchup so I can’t possibly fade him given the upside.

George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $12,500

The Pickens price tag on FanDuel is simply just criminal. He’s the fifth-most expensive option on the slate and you can argue he has the highest ceiling of any player in this game.

Per FF Dataroma, the Giants run single-high coverage 57.6% of the time, which is 10th in the NFL. On the year, Pickens is seeing 29% TPRR, 2.66 YPRR, and a 35.3% first read target share. Specifically against single high coverage, Pickens sees those metrics inflate to 35% TPRR, 2.92 YPRR, and a 43.1% first read target share. All those rank in the top eight at wide receiver.

The matchup for Pickens is elite. Similar to Nabers, Pickens probably gets shadow coverage. Deonte Banks is a young defensive back who has flashed upside at times. However, we’ve seen him struggle to defend the likes of Justin Jefferson, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins, DK Metcalf, and A.J. Brown. Given that Pickens aligns on the perimeter for 70% of his snaps, this is another potential smash spot for Pickens where he can duplicate last week’s production.

Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $13,500

I love the spot for the two top receivers in this game. I’m a bit lukewarm on Harris but we have plenty of reasons to like him in this spot. He’s coming off back-to-back 100-yard performances which goes a long way on DraftKings when you can get that bonus.

Over those last two games he has a 14.3% explosive run rate and he’s averaging 3.60 yards after contact per attempt. He’s touched the ball at least 15 times in every game this season and that should be the expectation Monday night.

The Giants have surrendered 200+ rushing yards on two occasions this year but those came against the Washington Commanders and the Philadelphia Eagles. Both teams have quarterbacks with rushing upside. But given the trends from Harris over the last two weeks, there’s reason to consider him at captain.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

Russell Wilson, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers - DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $15,500

Wilson definitely has some appeal at Captain based solely off the totals from last week. But let’s add in some context that George Pickens made some great catches and even Pat Freiermuth made this incredible one-handed grab from Wilson. So maybe we tread carefully with “how good” he really was? It still bothers me that he only completed 55.2% of his pass attempts when the New York Jets secondary was without Michael Carter II and D.J. Reed.

But this is also a much better matchup for Wilson. The Giants actually have a good pass rush. Aside from Malik Nabers, their pass rush is probably the only other positive for this team? But Pittsburgh’s offensive line isn’t terrible. Teams can throw on the Giants. The reason the totals are so low is that New York is largely non-competitive most weeks and teams just don’t even need to throw on them. So that is more of an argument for Harris and possibly Jaylen Warren.

Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $14,000

I struggled to find anybody in this offense that I was excited to write up aside from Malik Nabers. So, I’m writing up Jones for the simple fact that if he’s going to be productive, it’s likely in garbage time. Because the Giants are only six-point underdogs and this game has the lowest implied total for the entire week.

Jones was benched last week and the offensive line gets a massive downgrade sans Andrew Thomas. But Jones does have three games this year with 40+ pass attempts. It just depends what you get out of him. In four-of-seven games this year he’s returned less than 13 fantasy points.

But he still has some upside with his legs, albeit, not as much as we’ve seen in previous years. With just six touchdown passes on the year it might be tough to call for multiple in this game.

Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, New York Giants – DraftKings: $7,800 | FanDuel: $10,000

Part of me wants to fade Robinson in this spot. And that may surprise a lot of you because of the production he’s previously given. But as FF Dataroma points out, Robinson is the king of low-value targets in one of the worst offenses in the league.

The Steelers are actually a very difficult matchup for slot receivers and Robinson is averaging just 1.38 YPRR and 43 receiving yards per game. And he has six games this year with at least eight targets. 

Robinson has 87.1 full PPR fantasy points this season. 43 of those points came from simply catching the ball. So 49.37% of his overall fantasy production has come from basically doing the bare minimum his job requires. If you do opt to play him, it’s likely only as a flex play because he hasn’t done too much after the catch.

Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $7,200 | FanDuel: $9,500

Basically, we need a similar game script to last week when the Steelers blew out the Jets in primetime. Warren touched the ball 14 times last week but totaled just 59 yards. On paper, it was the closest we’ve been to a 50/50 split with Najee Harris in terms of workload.

Warren had been a model of efficiency early on in his career but that hasn’t been the case this year so I feel better about paying up for Najee Harris in this spot. The Giants do allow 5.43 yards per carry, but Warren hasn’t registered an explosive run this season. If you play him, you’re mostly doing so in an attempt to project the game script.

Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $6,200 | FanDuel: $8,000

This is a criminal price tag on FanDuel for Freiermuth. But at the same time, the Steelers have not thrown the ball enough to the tight end position. But maybe, just maybe, the positional success from National Tight End Day can carry over to Monday Night Football. This tweet from NFL Red Zone’s Scott Hanson emphasizes the absurd rate at which tight ends scored on Sunday.

Freirmuth has just nine targets in his last three games. But despite the low volume, he’s still $1,000 cheaper than Jaylen Warren so he’s my preferred option in this range if you aren’t overthinking the game script.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Tyrone Tracy, RB, New York Giants - DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $11,500

This price tag on DraftKings is baffling. Is it a bit of a trap? Sure. Most will pay down to Tracy rather than paying up for Singletary. Tracy has earned himself a role with the Giants offense and he’s flashed upside, including 237 total yards in Weeks 5 and 6.

Even last week, it looked as if Tracy was outpacing Singletary in terms of the workload. Before Daniel Jones was benched last week, Tracy played 72% of the snaps, handled 40% of the rush attempts, and ran 76% of the routes. By comparison, Singletary played just 21% of the snaps, handled 27% of the rush attempts, and ran 14% of the routes. By all accounts, it looks as if the team prefers Tracy.

It’s hard to gauge how this game plays out, but Tracy is a converted receiver, so he has a pass catching background and he has nine receptions in his last two games. It’s a horrible matchup for almost any skill position player on New York, but Tracy is a tremendous value for this game considering the Steelers have given up some production to pass catching running backs.

Van Jefferson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $7,500

We’re taking a shot in the dark although we did see Wilson get Jefferson into the end zone last week. He had just two receptions on three targets for 15 yards, but he does routinely see the field for two-wide receiver sets while Calvin Austin only comes on the first for three-wide receiver sets.

Jefferson has a chance to really give the Steelers some confidence as the team’s WR2. There were rumors the Steelers were in the market for Christian Kirk, but Kirk is now likely out for the season with a broken collarbone. Jefferson’s job is safe for now so let’s see if he can make the most of the opportunity.

Theo Johnson, TE, New York Giants – DraftKings: $2,400 | FanDuel: $7,000

We’re mostly sticking with the theme of National Tight End Day and obviously hoping for more work from Johnson in this game. He didn’t get a target last week but still ran 90% of the routes which vastly outpaced Daniel Bellinger.

Johnson did previously catch all eight of his targets in Weeks 5 and 6 so last week’s dud was a little surprising that they didn’t try to get him the ball at all. But again, Jones was benched. If you feel better about maybe betting a prop for Johnson you can maybe take the over on 1.5 receptions since the Steelers have allowed multiple receptions to the tight end position in six-of-seven games this year.

 

 

 

MNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

Given the implied total for this game, we have plenty of interest in the defenses, especially the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Giants have an implied team total of about 15.25 points but even on DraftKings, they are more expensive than the kickers on this slate. But they’ve allowed just 111 rushing yards in their last two games while surrendering a total of 28 points. They can force turnovers in bunches and we know Daniel Jones is no stranger to giving the ball to the other team. The Steelers have returned at least eight fantasy points in all but one game this year and four times they’ve provided double-digit fantasy points.

The New York Giants should not be written off completely. Yes, the secondary is beat up and we absolutely love George Pickens in this game. But if you want to get contrarian, the G-Men are in play and they’re $2,000 cheaper than Pittsburgh on this slate. The Giants have delivered double-digit fantasy points on two occasions this year and they haven’t been awful in terms of providing a good floor. They don’t force many turnovers, but they have forced four sacks in five of their last six games. This is simply one of those cases you hope the pressure and sacks can correlate to turnovers. But that hasn’t been the case for New York this year.

Chris Boswell is the safer option on this slate among the kickers and he’s $400 cheaper than the Steelers D/ST on DraftKings. I do think that probably juices his ownership a bit. On most slates we’ve seen at least one kicker priced at $5,400 but DraftKings will break tradition for this game. Boswell has missed just one field goal all year long (19-for-20) but he’s made all 14 of his XPA’s. The Steelers are only scoring touchdowns on 54.17% of their red zone drives so that bodes well for Boswell to potentially get multiple attempts in this game. And because we have a low total, you can get a little weird and play him at captain if you wish.

Greg Joseph is only $200 cheaper than Boswell, so DraftKings isn’t really tempting us to play him. He has appeared in five games for the Giants. In three of those games he has just three or fewer fantasy points. But in two games he went for double digits. The Steelers don’t give up much production to opposing kickers. It just speaks to how good their defense is. If the Giants can move the ball inside Pittsburgh’s 20-yard line, they’re only converting red zone touchdowns at a 42.11% rate which is tied for worst in the NFL, alongside the Dallas Cowboys. 

 

 

 

Giants vs. Steelers DFS Player Pool, 10/28

Player Pool

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