We close out Week 14 with an interconference matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Dallas Cowboys. Both teams had high playoff aspirations heading into the 2024 NFL season. Things don’t always go as planned and that’s certainly been the case for these two organizations.

 

 

 

For fantasy football, both season-long and DFS, this game has plenty of implications. It’s the final week of the regular season for fantasy football and this game has bad defenses and studs on offense. Let’s dig into the best Bengals vs. Cowboys DFS picks for the latest NFL DFS Showdown Playbook!

NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook; Bengals vs. Cowboys Game Preview

The Cincinnati Bengals have lost three straight games but each of those games turned into shootouts. That bodes well for this NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook. Recently the Bengals have lost 35-34 to the Baltimore Ravens. They lost 34-27 to the Los Angeles Chargers. And they lost 44-38 to the Pittsburgh Steelers. While they may hate the results, we love it for this NFL DFS Showdown Playbook.

The Bengals defense is one of the worst in the league. They’ve consistently allowed the most fantasy points to opposing receivers all season long. The Bengals have that delicious combination of bad defense and a great offense that just correlates to fantasy football glory for our teams.

For as bad as the Bengals are against the pass, the Cowboys aren’t much better. In fact, on the ground, Dallas may be the worst defense against the run. If Dak Prescott was able to suit up for this game, we’d be guaranteed for fireworks in this matchup. But with plenty of options across the board for this game, it’s an exciting Monday Night Football matchup to preview. A loss likely officially eliminates the loser from playoff contention so while they only have nine combined wins between these two teams, this game could still have plenty of offensive upside.

 

 

 

Bengals vs. Cowboys MNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Bengals -5.5 (-108)
  • Money Line:
    • Bengals (-230)
    • Cowboys (+190)
  • Game Total: Over 49.5 (-112) / Under 49.5 (-108)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Bengals -5.5 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Bengals (-255)
    • Cowboys (+210)
  • Game Total: Over 49.5 (-108) / Under 49.5 (-112)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Bengals vs. Cowboys MNF, December 9th

This game will be played indoors in a controlled environment, so there are no weather concerns to monitor.

 

Bengals vs. Cowboys Notable Injuries & Inactives

The visiting Cincinnati Bengals have ruled out offensive tackle Orlando Brown and defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins. Wide receiver Charlie Jones is also listed as questionable, but he’s buried on the depth chart and likely wouldn’t see the field anyway. The loss of Rankins does heavily impact Cincinnati’s ability to stop the run so a defense that was already pretty bad just got worse.

The Dallas Cowboys have ruled out safety Juanyeh Thomas and All-Pro guard Zack Martin. Tackle Tyler Guyton is also questionable heading into this game but the big injury to watch on defense is to Trevon Diggs who practiced in a limited fashion last week with a knee injury.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Monday Night Football, 12/9

Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals - DraftKings: $11,600 | FanDuel: $15,500

Over the last calendar year, Ja'Marr Chase is third in fantasy points among all wide receivers in PPR formats. He’s an absolute stud to put it simply. Through a dozen games this year, he’s already eclipsed 1,100+ receiving yards (averaging 95.2 per game) and he has 13 touchdowns on the season.

That alone should be enough of an argument to play him at MVP/Captain. He has three spike games of 30+ fantasy points on DraftKings already this season and that’s exactly the kind of upside you seek when looking for players to plug in at MVP/Captain.

On the year, Chase has a 30.8% air yards share and a 30.9% first-read target share. I don’t dwell too much on any coverage or matchup schemes with Ja'Marr Chase. He’s one of those receivers where you plug and play and feel as if he’s matchup proof. 

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $14,000

There’s a little more uncertainty with Lamb because of the quarterback situation in Dallas but at the end of the day, Cooper Rush still tries to feed Lamb about a dozen times every game.

We mentioned that stat above about fantasy points at the wide receiver position over the last calendar year. While Chase is third, Lamb is actually first. But the touchdown equity is down a bit heading into this matchup. Lamb was removed early in Week 13 with a shoulder injury, but he carries no designation heading into this matchup.

The Bengals struggle against opposing wide receivers. To be honest, they may have the worst secondary in the league. Mike Hilton does defend the slot pretty well. Lamb lines up in the slot on about 52% of his routes. However, over the last four games the Bengals have allowed the most fantasy points to perimeter receivers and third-most to slot receivers. Similar to Chase, you operate as if Lamb is matchup proof and hope that Lamb can take advantage in this spot despite the quarterback downgrade.

Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals – DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $12,500

Brown gets volume and he’s also coming off one of his most efficient performances of the season against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. Brown only touched the ball 15 times against the Steelers (12 carries, 3 receptions) but totaled 100 scrimmage yards.

Is he a big candidate for either 100-yard bonus on DraftKings? No, he’s only gone for 100+ rushing yards once all season. However, he has 30 targets in his last five games and he’s found the end zone in four of his last five games.

As far as the matchup goes, it doesn’t get much better for Brown. The Cowboys are 31st in rush yards per game, 28th in rush yards per attempt, and dead last in EPA per rush.

He may not have the ceiling of some of the receivers in this game. You can even make the argument Joe Burrow has a higher ceiling than Chase Brown. But this could also turn out to be Brown’s best game of the season given the matchup and usage. If he isn’t going to get a bonus on DraftKings, we at least find comfort knowing he gets touchdowns and receptions.

Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $13,000

In two games since returning from injury, Tee Higgins has caught 14-of-23 targets for 217 total yards and he’s found the end zone in back-to-back games. Higgins won’t draw as much attention from Trevon Diggs (if he suits up for this game) so it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that he sees double-digit targets once again.

Higgins has played against Dallas twice in his career. In 2020 (no Ja'Marr Chase yet) he was second fiddle to A.J. Green still and caught 5-of-8 targets for 49 yards. In 2022, a game where Diggs covered Chase for most of the matchup, Higgins went for six receptions on 10 targets for 71 yards and a touchdown.

On the season, although it’s been marred with injuries, Higgins still sees an 11.4 aDOT, a 26.1% target share, and a surprising 37.2% first-read target share. I’m reading into that first-read share the most because Ja'Marr Chase should be the focus of the defense and if Higgins is already touting a first-read target share from Joe Burrow that often, then I’m aiming to be overweight on Tee Higgins.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals – DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $14,500

There is 100% a very strong argument to play Burrow at MVP/Captain and I wouldn’t argue with you. But there are just so many position players in great spots that I will mostly flex Burrow and target his positional players at the top of my lineup.

The Bengals defense largely puts the Bengals offense in difficult spots every week. Teams run up the score on Cincy and the offense has to get into shootouts. That’s great for fantasy purposes, but it also explains why the Bengals are 4-8.

Burrow has 15 touchdown passes in his last four games and he’s hit the 300-yard bonus on DraftKings in three straight matchups. The Cowboys are allowing the third-most points per game in the NFL and Burrow should be putting up plenty of production on them in this spot.

Cooper Rush, QB, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings, $8,800 | FanDuel: $11,500

I wasn’t sure if I really wanted to highlight Cooper Rush, but I think it’s worth mentioning just how bad this secondary is for the Cincinnati Bengals. On the season, the Bengals allow the sixth-most passing yards per game (241) and over their last three games they’re allowing 326.7 yards per game which is dead last in the NFL.

Aside from Mike Hilton, this secondary is just gross. Opposing offenses throw the ball about 35 times per game on Cincinnati and Cooper Rush has been throwing more in his last three games as the Cowboys come into this matchup having won back-to-back games. So perhaps there’s a little more faith in Rush to keep Dallas in contention.

Ball security is a concern, but we saw Rush perform very well against the Houston Texans in Week 11 with 354 passing yards and 55 pass attempts. Even if Rush isn’t efficient, this is potentially a matchup where he puts up his best performance of the year from sheer volume.

Rico Dowdle, RB, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $11,000

I am normally a bit skeptical about playing running backs against the Bengals D/ST. But we’ve seen this defense struggle to stop the ground attack when either B.J. Hill or Sheldon Rankins are out and Rankins has been ruled out for this game. So I am upgrading Dowdle because the matchup is better and he is operating as the RB1 in this offense.

Is Dowdle explosive? Not by any means. And if the Bengals do get out to a huge lead, the Cowboys may have to abandon the run, but luckily Dowdle does have 21 receptions in his last six games. So I am comfortable playing Dowdle in almost any game script.

While it’s unlikely Dowdle breaks any huge runs, it’s still likely he can be productive. He’s averaging 4.5 yards per carry this season. Per Fantasy Points Data he’s gaining at least three yards on 65.7% of his carries (best in the league) and at least five yards on 41.8% of his carries (second to Bijan Robinson). 

Brandin Cooks, WR, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $10,500

Cooks returned last week after missing nearly two months of the season and he managed to find the end zone against the New York Giants on Thanksgiving. Moreover, he even received seven targets from Cooper Rush which was a pleasant surprise.

Cooks game log is tough to gauge because he’s only played five games and hasn’t been great in terms of efficiency and volume. However, the matchup doesn’t get any better. The Bengals allow the most fantasy points to perimeter receivers which is where Cooks lines up for 73% of his routes.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $5,400 | FanDuel: $10,000

Ferguson is cleared to return from concussion protocol and this price tag on DraftKings is downright criminal. It’s the cheapest he’s been for any Showdown slate this year, but we’ll take advantage.

Ferguson’s receiving yardage prop of 37.5 has been eclipsed by all but two tight ends against Cincinnati this season. Cincinnati has also struggled to defend the tight end position. Fergy probably doesn’t have the chemistry with Cooper Rush just yet but we saw Rush lean on Luke Schoonmaker with 20 targets in Weeks 11-13. I expect Ferguson to come right back in and make contributions immediately and the price tag is wildly affordable on DraftKings.

Andrei Iosivas, WR, Cincinnati Bengals – DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $9,500

The price is tough to swallow for a guy who operates as his team’s WR3, so he doesn’t always see a full complement of snaps. And we also know that Mike Gesicki runs plenty of routes in the slot. So the volume and targets may be hard to come by for Cincinnati’s second-year receiver.

But he’s at least above rookie Jermaine Burton, who can’t seem to stay awake during meetings. Additionally, Iosivas makes the absolute most of his opportunities with three-or-four targets in five straight games and they weirdly have some short yardage red zone plays they design for him. With the Bengals having an implied team total of 27.5 points there could be enough production to go around for even some of their pass catchers.

Jalen Tolbert, WR, Dallas Cowboys - DraftKings: $2,800 | FanDuel: $7,500

It’s somewhat surprising that Kavontae Turpin is more expensive than Tolbert since Tolbert has typically been used in more three-wide receiver sets. Turpin had a decent game on Thanksgiving, but his workload was due to the Cowboys holding out CeeDee Lamb in the second half.

So I’m going to lean into Tolbert because he does run more routes and the matchup on the perimeter is great which is where Tolbert runs about 70% of his routes. Tolbert has exactly two receptions in three straight games. But on previous Showdown slates he was priced up to at least $4,000 and this is the second cheapest he’s been on DraftKings for any Showdown slate the Cowboys have appeared on this year. Tolbert is going to be my most popular dart throw, especially in a matchup this good.

Tanner Hudson, TE, Cincinnati Bengals – DraftKings: $2,000 | FanDuel: $6,500

This one gives me a little pause because Hudson was only on the field for 12 of Cincy’s 62 offensive snaps last week. However, he was targeted on four of those snaps and he finished with four receptions for 28 yards. Drew Sample played nearly three times as many snaps and had only two targets. So both are fine options to plug in if you need cheaper options than Jalen Tolbert.

I’m not opposed to playing Mike Gesicki but he’ll cost you almost three times as much as these two and his usage goes down when Tee Higgins is on the field. But we can potentially hit pay dirt with Hudson given the likelihood that he gets targeted when he is on the field.

 

 

 

Bengals vs. Cowboys DFS Player Pool, 12/9

Player Pool

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