We’re coming off an incredibly ugly game on Thursday Night Football. The Broncos and Saints did surprisingly hit the over, but it was an absolute whooping put on by the Denver Broncos on the backs of Javonte Williams and their defense. But we now turn our attention to our SNF DFS picks. The New York Jets, fresh off a massive trade that reunited an old friend with Aaron Rodgers, head to Western Pennsylvania to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers who are embroiled in a bit of a quarterback controversy. Let’s see how we should approach lineup construction with the latest Jets vs. Steelers DFS picks for Sunday Night Football in Week 7!

 

 

 

Jets vs. Steelers DFS Picks & Preview: Sunday Night Football, 10/20

The New York Jets are the visiting team in this matchup and there are a few quick things to note. For starters, they just played on Monday night losing 23-20 to the Buffalo Bills. So they’re already at a slight disadvantage given the shorter week of preparation. And in that loss, Aaron Rodgers wasted no time throwing one of his receivers under the bus and that ultimately coincided perfectly with the Jets trading for Davante Adams.

But one thing we shouldn’t overlook is that the Jets offense did actually look like a competent unit Monday night. Todd Downing took over play calling duties for Nathaniel Hackett and that resulted in Aaron Rodgers tossing two touchdowns for 294 yards, Breece Hall rushed for 113 yards, and both Allen Lazard and Garrett Wilson caught touchdowns while recording 100 receiving yards. To be fair, most of Lazard’s production came on one play. But overall, I don’t want to overlook what the Jets did because the offense looked more cohesive with a new play caller. Now they bring Davante Adams to town? Color me intrigued…

The Pittsburgh Steelers sit at 4-2 but could very well be 5-1. But at the end of the day, you are what your record says you are. Justin Fields has looked competent at times, but you get the sense the Steelers aren’t quite reaching their full potential. Do I think Fields should lose the job? Not quite, and I’m saying this as someone with zero shares of Fields in Best Ball. But reports earlier this week indicated that Russell Wilson was getting more first-team reps in practice, and by all accounts, it looks as if he will be the starter. And yet, the Steelers could find ways to utilize both Fields and Wilson. That’s never really worked out in the past but we’ll see how this plays out for our Jets vs. Steelers DFS picks.

 

 

 

Jets vs. Steelers SNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Jets -1.5 (-112)
  • Money Line:
    • Jets (-135)
    • Steelers (+114)
  • Game Total: Over 39 (-108) / Under 39 (-112)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Jets -1.5 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Jets (-122)
    • Steelers (+104)
  • Game Total: Over 38.5 (-115) / Under 38.5 (-105)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Jets vs. Steelers SNF, October 20th

This section is being written early Friday morning just to have this published Saturday evening. But the early weather report is optimistic, yet we’ll check back leading up to kickoff. During the day on Sunday, temperatures are expected in the mid-70’s with clear, sunny skies. Once we get to the evening for our Sunday Night Football DFS contests, we’re looking at temperatures in the mid-40’s. However, there’s no rain in the forecast and winds should be very low. A chilly night for sure, but the football conditions are still in our favor.

Jets vs. Steelers Injuries: Sunday Night Football Week 7

The New York Jets are the visiting team and they are a little beat up on the defensive side of the ball. Moreover, it’s the secondary that’s struggling a bit. Michael Carter II has already been ruled out so that’s an upgrade to a cheap receiver we’ll get to later on in the article. However, D.J. Reed had not practiced at all through Friday’s injury report. If he’s unable to suit up Sunday night then that aids the Steelers passing game a little more.

The Steelers have some notable players to monitor on both sides of the ball. The Steelers will be without starting center Zach Frazier who was a second-round selection in April’s draft. So that’s not necessarily great news especially when you’re making a change at quarterback. Cordarrelle Patterson has also been ruled out.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets – DraftKings: $10,400 | FanDuel: $15,500

I’m going with three players from the Jets as my MVP/Captain options for our Sunday Night Football DFS picks. You build your player pool as you see fit, but I do not love how Pittsburgh is trending heading into this game.

Hall gets volume and that leads to a good floor and ceiling. Sure, we had some down weeks from him in Weeks 4 and 5 in tough matchups. However, he bounced back last week with 23 total touches for 169 total yards. In six games he’s also caught 26-of-34 targets so we love the involvement in the passing game.

The matchup isn’t ideal. Truthfully, both defenses are pretty stout, hence why we’re looking at an over/under below 40 points. The Steelers are allowing just 85.5 rushing yards per game. But we do have the passing game involvement for Hall in this spot so I’m willing to play him and hope he can find the end zone for the first time since Week 3.

Davante Adams, WR, New York Jets – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $13,000

In terms of pure “value” Adams is a better play on FanDuel where he’s the sixth-most expensive name on the board. Adams was a full participant in practice earlier in the week. It’s crazy how the trade from Vegas to New York just magically healed his hamstring!

We haven’t seen him play since Week 3, but we know there’s chemistry with Aaron Rodgers. And even if Nathaniel Hackett is no longer calling the plays, he still has some familiarity with the offense and he was traded on Tuesday and has had time to get up to speed. His routes and snaps might be slightly limited but there will likely be a concerted effort on Rodgers’ part to get his favorite weapon into the end zone with a decent target share.

Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets - DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $13,500

I am one of those fools that genuinely believes Wilson is one of the best receivers in the league. On a pure talent level, I think he’s better than Davante Adams, but it also helps that he’s younger. But for full transparency, the trade for Davante Adams is not great for Wilson’s season long fantasy football outlook.

But this is DFS and for our Jets vs. Steelers DFS picks I absolutely love the discount we’re getting. Volume has been crucial for his success lately. He has 32 targets in his last two games but 22 of those did come against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 5’s London game. But he still has three touchdowns in his last four games with back-to-back 100-yard bonuses on DraftKings.

I’m not expecting Wilson to come off the field in three-wide receiver sets and there’s still a path for him to receive 8-10 targets as the Jets acclimate Adams into the offense. Moreover, there is a chance he sees shadow coverage from Joey Porter who has already shut down opposing receivers such as Drake London, Courtland Sutton, and Quentin Johnston. He still has the same ceiling as he has had in recent weeks and we’re getting him at a slight discount so I’m on board utilizing him at Captain once again.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Aaron Rodgers, QB, New York Jets - DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $14,500

I really hate how FanDuel prices their quarterbacks but given their scoring and how often QB’s are optimal at MVP, I guess I understand it. And I know everyone’s giddy about the acquisition of Adams, but the Jets offense looked a lot better after firing Robert Saleh and removing play calling duties from Nathaniel Hackett.

Sure, there’s the 52-yard bomb he threw to Allen Lazard at the end of the first half against the Bills. But Rodgers is also somewhat notorious for plays like that. He’s thrown multiple touchdowns in four of his last five games, but he hasn’t quite given us a break-the-slate kind of performance just yet. But with the trade for Adams, it does give him more potential to hit the 300-yard bonus with two elite pass catchers at his disposal.

Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $12,000

If you’re going to beat the Jets, you’re probably going to need to do it on the ground. Harris is coming off his biggest game of the season where he rushed for 106 yards on 14 carries and added two receptions for another 16 yards. Last week marked the first time he found the end zone all season.

The Jets give up 124.2 rushing yards per game and they gave up 131 total last week between backup running backs Ray Davis and Ty Johnson. Davis even contributed three receptions for 55 yards. Fortunately for Harris, Arthur Smith sure does love to run the ball and dominate time of possession.

Harris has touched the ball at least 16 times in every game this year, so volume is on his side. He also has a 64% route participation rate over his last two weeks so if he can possibly get a few more looks in the passing game we’re looking at a great floor play with a ceiling similar to what he did last week.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Justin Fields, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $14,000

Russell Wilson, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $14,000

The Jets are allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game (148.8) and the fifth-lowest completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks (60.61%). The Jets also only give up 18 points per game and we have the potential narrative that both quarterbacks could be in play. I don’t completely buy that. But if either quarterback struggles with the start, they could be replaced quickly.

Regarding Justin Fields, he’s been fine for fantasy football with some spike weeks in two of his last three games. However, those correlate with having a pair of rushing touchdowns in Weeks 4 and 6. In his last two games he’s completed just 56.9% of his passes for 276 yards. He has just two games this season with over 160 passing yards and he’s fumbled the ball six times this year, but fortunately he’s only lost one of those.

We don’t quite know what to expect from Russell Wilson, but he did get work with the first-team reps on offense earlier this week. We do have somewhat of a revenge game narrative in play. Nathaniel Hackett was Russell Wilson’s head coach in Wilson’s first season in Denver and it was a disaster for both parties. All in all, I am concerned about passing volume in this matchup for both Fields and Wilson. Play at your own risk.

George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $11,000

Pickens is a fine option, but it’s really hard to list him as a Captain/MVP candidate or even as a core play. This matchup is awful and there’s no other way around it. He has at least seven targets in four straight games but on the year, he also has four games with less than 60 receiving yards. Not to mention, he hasn’t found the end zone this season.

Per Jacobs Gibbs of CBS Sports, Pickens actually had 85 catchable air yards in Week 6 which was fifth among receivers. However, with the change at quarterback we don’t quite know how the target distribution will unfold. On top of that, the matchup is dreadful for Pickens on Sunday. Given that Pickens lines up on the perimeter for 69% of his routes, he’s going to have his hands full with either Sauce Gardner or D.J. Reed. For that reason, I’m going to be underweight on Pickens similar to the approach I took Thursday night with Courtland Sutton.

Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $6,400 | FanDuel: $9,500

Freiermuth still has potential to be the second target in the offense and it’s a brutal matchup for the Pittsburgh receivers against this brutal secondary of the Jets. But if Russell Wilson gets the start, that just may help Freiermuth who really wasn’t generating much chemistry with Justin Fields.

After finding the end zone in Weeks 4 and 5, Muth caught just two passes for 16 yards last week. We do expect the Steelers to lean on the run game, but the quarterback change can only help him in this spot. The price tag on both sites is okay but we aren’t getting a tremendous value by any means. 

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $8,000

Among all the plays in the value tier, Warren probably provides the safest floor of all the options. After missing two games, he returned last week and touched the ball nine times while registering three receptions. Unfortunately, he was horribly inefficient. He rushed for seven yards on six carries and then had 11 receiving yards.

From the perspective of the 8-10 touch potential, we like the play. But Najee Harris does give Pittsburgh the best chance to win and that may keep the price suppressed on Warren for the time being. 

Braelon Allen, RB, New York Jets – DraftKings: $3,800

This is a value play strictly for DraftKings, because there’s a better value play on FanDuel I’ll recommend next. Allen’s price is knocked down after some unproductive games. Back in Week 2 he found the end zone twice and was rewarded with 14 touches in Week 3 against the New England Patriots.

But since then the production has tapered off a bit. And he only touched the ball five times last week in a competitive game script. That’s concerning especially since this game projects to be competitive as well. But he still has big play upside but we can’t quite trust the workload.

Allen Lazard, WR, New York Jets – FanDuel: $8,500

We go from one Allen on the Jets to another. Lazard is almost twice as expensive as Braelon Allen on DraftKings, but he is a nice discount on FanDuel. Lazard does have five touchdowns on the year, but the addition of Davante Adams likely relegates Lazard to just three-wide receiver sets. But he’s still a preferred target for Aaron Rodgers with 26 receptions on 41 targets through six games. 

He might see a small dip in terms of production but overall he’s still playable. I prefer the price tag on FanDuel but the $7,400 tag on DraftKings likely makes him a contrarian play.

Calvin Austin II, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $2,400 | FanDuel: $7,500

I really wasn’t prepared to feature Austin in this article until I saw that Michael Carter II was ruled out. Austin isn’t necessarily great and doesn’t see much volume. He has just two games this year with more than two targets. And we have a change at quarterback so it’s anyone’s guess as to how the target distribution shakes out with Russell Wilson.

But Carter being out helps Austin at least. Carter mostly works against slot receivers and that’s where Austin lines up 43% of the time. If D.J. Reed is also ruled out then that does help Van Jefferson but we’ll have to wait for inactives to come out before re-evaluating the player pool.

 

 

 

SNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

Obviously when you have an implied total this low, both D/ST’s are in play. I downgrade the Steelers slightly due to the addition of Davante Adams to the New York Jets. However, they still have six takeaways in their last two games and they’ve yielded a total of 86 points through six games to opposing offenses. Per DraftKings scoring, they have five games this year returning at least nine fantasy points.

The Jets D/ST is viable as they have one of the best secondaries in the league. However, if D.J. Reed is out we might downgrade them slightly. They don’t force as many turnovers as the Steelers and they’re easier to run on. But with Russell Wilson under center, they may have more upside and chances for sacks as Wilson might be less mobile than Justin Fields at this point in his career.

Chris Boswell has a nice floor. Most people will see that the Jets are 25th against kickers but that means nothing. Jake Moody kicked six field goals against them in Week 1 so the rating is skewed a bit. But Boswell provides a nice floor and correlates well with Wilson or Harris at Captain. He’s returned at least eight fantasy points in five-of-six games.

Greg Zuerlein had a rough night against the Bills as he missed a pair of field goals and yet he still finished with eight fantasy points. Perhaps the offense is upgraded with an additional weapon like Davante Adams. The Leg hasn’t been as safe as Boswell but he’ll likely be in any lineup I make that features a New York Jet at Captain. And it’s always worth remembering, kickers tend to go under-owned most slates, especially when they’re priced up like Boswell and Zuerlein.

 

 

Player Pool

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