After combing through the most recent NFL DFS Week 8 main slate that had plenty of popular value plays, we re-focus and dig into Sunday night’s Cowboys vs 49ers DFS picks. The latest NFC matchup pits two storied franchises against one another. The Dallas Cowboys visit the San Francisco 49ers. Both teams have just three wins on the season and are facing an uphill battle after both had Super Bowl aspirations heading into the year. It’s obviously been a disappointing start for both clubs, but a win Sunday night goes a long way in this competitive conference. Let’s take a look at the top SNF DFS picks as we wrap up Week 8!

 

 

 

Cowboys vs 49ers DFS Picks & Preview: Sunday Night Football, 10/27

Week 8 delivers a great NFC matchup with two historic franchises that certainly have their share of Super Bowl wins. While it’s been a while since either organization raised a championship banner, both teams had high aspirations entering the 2024 NFL season.

However, things haven’t gone as planned. For the visiting Dallas Cowboys, they’re coming off a much-needed Bye week. Whether they need to get healthy or just regroup, the Bye week came at the right time. Their defense hasn’t played as advertised when they were healthy, and there have been significant offensive struggles. 3-3 through seven weeks is not where Jerry Jones envisioned this team and it’s a reason that Mike McCarthy potentially finds himself on the hot seat. But again, teams respond differently after a week off. I’d be surprised if Dallas came out looking flat.

And the host team, the San Francisco 49ers, is coming off a loss in Week 7 to the Kansas City Chiefs. They sit at the bottom of the NFC West at 3-4 and they lost star receiver, Brandon Aiyuk, for the season. But reinforcements are on the way. San Francisco has a deep wide receiver room. And they have a Bye week coming in Week 9, with the potential return of Christian McCaffrey in Week 10. But for now, let’s see how this game projects as part of the latest Sunday Night Football Playbook featuring the best Cowboys vs 49ers DFS picks!

 

 

 

Cowboys vs. 49ers SNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: 49ers -4.5 (-112)
  • Money Line:
    • Cowboys (+180)
    • 49ers (-218)
  • Game Total: Over 47 (-110) / Under 47 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: 49ers -4.5 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Cowboys (+194)
    • 49ers (-235)
  • Game Total: Over 47.5 (-108) / Under 47.5 (-112)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Cowboys vs 49ers SNF, October 27th

Temperatures will be in the mid-70’s on Sunday in the Northern California area. During the day there will be partly cloudy skies with a very low chance of rain. As the sun sets and the temps cool off into the 60’s the winds will likely stay consistent with 10-15 mph gusts. Overall, these are great conditions for our Cowboys vs 49ers picks.

 

Cowboys vs 49ers Injuries: Sunday Night Football Week 8

The good news with the visiting team is that we have a sense of who will be out. The Dallas Cowboys announced on Friday that Micah Parsons, Jordan Phillips, John Stephens, and DaRon Bland will be out for this game. Eric Kendricks and Nick Vigil are questionable. So the defense is definitely going through it. They got off to a rough start early on and haven’t quite been able to make big defensive stops. Additionally, Brandon Aubrey is listed as questionable with jury duty (that’s not even a joke). But he will be available for this game as the jurors for his case aren’t required to be sequestered.

The San Francisco 49ers lost Brandon Aiyuk for the season in and it remains to be seen if they’ll have Deebo Samuel for this game as he’s been battling pneumonia, although reports indicate he will suit up. Jauan Jennings, a potential league winner in season-long fantasy football, is out with a hip injury. Jordan Mason was a limited participant all week as he battles a shoulder injury, but he is likely to suit up in a game that could be a smash spot. If there’s any good news for the 49ers it’s that Christian McCaffrey could potentially return and play in Week 10.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Jordan Mason, RB, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $15,000

Christian McCaffrey might return in Week 10, but not before we can get one more heavy workload out of Jordan Mason who has filled in admirably in lieu of CMC. The 49ers are off next week so getting a win before their Bye week would be huge. How do you get a win against Dallas? Well it helps if you can run the ball down their throat.

The Cowboys are surrendering 143.2 rushing yards per game which is fifth-most in the NFL. Mason has also been incredible with the ball in his hands. Across all running backs in the NFL he’s top 10 in yards per carry (5.21), explosive run rate (7.8%), and yards after contact per attempt (3.18) and he also has volume on his side. He has just one game all year with less than 15 touches and that was the Thursday Night Football game in Week 6 where he injured his shoulder.

The fantasy output of late has not been great. However, the matchup is outstanding and game script is on his side. If the 49ers can generate a big enough lead, they can comfortably run the ball in the second half with Mason.

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $15,500

Lamb is the most expensive player on FanDuel and for good reason. He’s one of the best receivers in the game and he was paid as such. Has every week for Lamb been great? Not really. In fact, his per game numbers are down a bit from a year ago but we know there’s upside here. 

He only has two touchdowns in six games and he hasn’t popped for 100+ receiving yards yet. But Lamb has still seen at least seven targets in each game this season, including 14 in Week 6 as the team went into their Bye week.

If there’s a concern with Lamb, it’s that the 49ers run 2-High coverage nearly 50% of the time. And Lamb only has an 18% target per route run rate against 2-High. However, the 49ers are also terrible at defending the slot. Per Fantasy Points Data, the 49ers allow the most yards per attempt to slot receivers (9.82) and the third highest aDOT (11.7). Lamb runs over 50% of his routes out of the slot so this could very well be another night where Lamb is peppered with targets despite not breaking a big play.

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $12,500

Deebo gets quite the friendly price tag on FanDuel. And some DFS players may stay away from Deebo in this spot. Why? Well he registered just three offensive snaps last week as he was battling an illness. He carries a questionable tag heading into this matchup, but he’s expected to play.

The Dallas defense can’t stop anything at the moment. We already alluded to how bad they are on the ground, and they can be beaten through the air but most teams opt to run the ball on them. And that’s perfectly fine because Deebo gets a few designed runs each game as well. I know some folks don’t like that he carries the ball, but since when are more touches a bad thing for one of the best fantasy football receivers?

Since the beginning of 2022, with Brandon Aiyuk off the field, Deebo has seen a 37% target per route run rate with 4.44 yards per route run. For context, through Week 7 of this season, Deebo is seeing a 21% TPRR, and 2.25 YPRR. If he’s active in this game, I’ll gladly aim to be overweight on my Deebo shares if others are scared of last week’s illness.

George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $11,500

Kittle has been arguably the most productive tight end in football. His route metrics are actually in line with Deebo as Kittle’s averaging 2.25 YPRR but a 25% TPRR which is a little better.

I will be completely transparent, Deebo does see the bigger bump with Aiyuk off the field. Typically, Kittle’s targets and per route data improve with Deebo off the field. But without Aiyuk, Kittle sees a 24% TPRR and 2.01 YPRR.

But Kittle has still just been so good that even if the metrics don’t improve sans Aiyuk, he’s still putting up great numbers. He’s put up at least 14.5 full PPR points in his last five games and he has 19 receptions on 25 targets over his last three games. He is currently questionable with a foot injury, but the 49ers do expect him to play and he breaks the slate if he scores twice.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Play

Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers - DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $13,500

We can’t be too surprised at the price tags for the quarterbacks on FanDuel. This is a great bounce back opportunity after Purdy was abysmal against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 7. Purdy did rush for two touchdowns which salvaged his day. But as a passer he completed just 54.8% of his pass attempts while throwing three interceptions.

But overall, among qualifying quarterbacks, Purdy is third in yards per attempt (8.52), and fourth in CPOE, which is completion percentage over expected at 4.1%. So we chalk up last week’s game as just a bad day. Everybody is bound to have one of those and he still gave fantasy managers two rushing touchdowns. It’s a really good spot for Purdy to regain some confidence as the Cowboys are a bit beat up defensively and there are holes that can be exposed, just as the Detroit Lions did in Week 6.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $13,000

I only include Brock Purdy as a core play this week. But it’s also worth mentioning that anytime I put a player in the Captain/MVP section, they’re also a core play as well unless I specify otherwise.

Dak is not a core play for me. However, he and the Cowboys did have a week off. That lends perspective for a lot of teams as they aim to get healthy as well. But this has been an underwhelming year for the Cowboys quarterback who got another big pay day this year. 

In half his games this year Dak has thrown two touchdowns each. In the other three games he’s thrown one or none. Not to mention he had four interceptions in his last two games heading into the off week. 

The 49ers have also been tough to throw on. You can certainly score on them which is a saving grace as they’ve surrendered 23+ points to five of their last six opponents. However, they’ve allowed only two quarterbacks all year to accumulate 200+ passing yards on them so Dak will need volume to pay off any investment we make in him.

Rico Dowdle, RB, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $10,500

Dowdle has seemingly taken over the lead running back duties for the Dallas Cowboys. Which normally would mean great things. But Dowdle has been more of a “floor” play if anything. So he’s priced in the mid-range without much upside.

In full PPR formats he’s delivered at least 8.6 fantasy points in five straight games, including three straight double-digit performances in three games leading up to the team’s Bye week. However, that’s probably better for season-long formats. We aren’t taken down a GPP in DFS with just 10-13 fantasy points from a flex play at this price tag.

Per FF Dataroma, Dowdle has a 0.07 MTF/ATT (missed tackles forced per attempt) which is last out of 42 qualifying running backs, a 0% explosive run rate (also last), and 2.25 yards after contact per attempt (32nd). He’s been dreadful after contact, but luckily he’s averaging 4.2 yards per carry despite running behind a bad offensive line. Moreover, there have been more targets coming his way.

But again, all these targets just elevate his floor. Until he shows us he can break through, I’m just not overly committed to this play. You can even argue that you either take a shot on him a Captain/MVP or you don’t play him at all. 

Update: Rico Dowdle has been ruled OUT as he showed up to the stadium with an illness. This is a nice little upgrade in value for Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook.

Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $6,800 | FanDuel: $10,000

I struggle with Ferguson in this matchup. In general, I tend to side with Andrew Cooper, our resident TE guru. Anytime a tight end goes against the 49ers, I prefer to fade them because they have to contend with Fred Warner. Coop even lists Ferguson as a fade in this week’s NFL DFS TE Coach.

But there are some arguments we can make for Ferguson. And since he came back from a one-game absence in Week 2, there has been an effort to feed him the ball more. As we mentioned earlier in this article, the 49ers run a lot of 2-High coverage. Ferguson actually sees his metrics increase against 2-High. He earns a 28% TPRR and 2.23 YPRR per FF Dataroma.

Again, I still have pause because last week Fred Warner and this defense held Travis Kelce to just four receptions for 17 yards. I’ll be struggling with how much Ferguson exposure I land on leading all the way up to lineup lock.

Jalen Tolbert, WR, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $6,400 | FanDuel: $8,000

This is actually a great price tag on FanDuel for Tolbert. I actually wish he was more expensive than Ferguson because that would’ve made lineup construction more difficult and probably would’ve enticed others to take the cheaper option.

And that’s what I ultimately think happens here. On the year, Tolbert is only seeing a 16% TPRR and 1.39 YPRR. But against 2-High coverage the metrics improve to 20% TPRR and 1.82 YPRR.

In the two games since Brandin Cooks went on IR, Tolbert has collected 11 receptions on 15 targets for 130 receiving yards and a touchdown. There’s definitely intrigue and upside with this play for our SNF DFS picks.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Ricky Pearsall, WR, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $5,800 | FanDuel: $9,500

I might get heat for putting Pearsall in this section. He is a “value” on DraftKings but not so much on FanDuel. Tolbert is by far a better value on FanDuel, but I’m a DraftKings player at the end of the day so I’ll plug him in here since the mid-range section is already so crowded.

There are many unknowns about Pearsall and if he can pay off this tag. But let’s not forget, there’s a first-round draft pedigree here even if he is just a few months removed from being shot with a large caliber bullet.

Last week in his debut he managed to collect three receptions on five targets for 21 yards. That’s not bad for a player just getting his feet wet. Do I expect Pearsall to maintain a large role once Jauan Jennings returns? Not really, but Jennings is out for this game so Pearsall has a great opportunity to give the 49ers a return on that first-round draft pick investment.

KaVontae Turpin, WR, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $4,800 | FanDuel: $7,500

Turpin, like Tolbert, has seen his role expand since Cooks landed on IR after Week 4. With that said, Tolbert has seen a little more volume and routes. But I can’t completely write off Turpin because he also gets work with special teams.

Over his last two games prior to the team’s Bye week, Turpin had eight receptions on a dozen targets for a total of 74 yards. If Dallas is trailing late in this game, hopefully that leads to more three-wide receiver sets as we know this team struggles to run the ball and likely won’t be doing so in a negative game script.

Jacob Cowing, WR, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $5,000

The price tag is definitely better on FanDuel, but even on DraftKings we can make this work. Playing time is tough to gauge. We could see snaps split among rookies Pearsall and Cowing but we also can’t sleep on Ronnie Bell or Chris Conley who are also priced well and worth exposure among our SNF DFS picks.

But I want to preview Cowing largely because I was impressed with the efficiency last week and I know full well they numbers are unsustainable. But I want to see what the 2024 fourth-round pick can do with a larger workload. On eight routes last week he had three targets. He caught two of them for 50 yards, including a big 41-yard catch that set the 49ers up inside the 10-yard line. We don’t want to go overweight so be mindful to spread exposure evenly in the value tier.

 

 

 

SNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

This is an interesting matchup with a moderately high game total at ~47 points depending on the sportsbook you reference. I can confidently say the Dallas Cowboys defense doesn’t interest me too much. They simply haven’t been very good this year. Obviously, they won’t have Demarcus Lawrence who is on IR. Moreover, Micah Parsons, DaRon Bland, and Jordan Phillips have been ruled out. And the Cowboys couldn’t stop anything even before they lost players due to injury. For that reason, I’m off them in this matchup as the 49ers have an implied team total of 26+ points and Dallas has just three takeaways and eight sacks since Week 2.

I’m a little more comfortable playing the San Francisco 49ers defense. We touched on how Dak Prescott had four interceptions in the two games leading up to the team’s week off. But it’s because of that week off that I think the offense may have re-grouped a bit. Sure, the Minnesota Vikings have taken a pair of losses since their Bye week, but all teams are different in how they respond. San Francisco doesn’t generate a ton of sacks and they give up points (22.6 per game), but they do have nine takeaways in their last four contests.

Brandon Aubrey is obviously in play. Jury duty won’t keep fantasy football’s most valuable kicker out of this game so we can go right back to the well. The 49ers are a good defense, but if Dallas can keep this game competitive then I don’t see how Aubrey doesn’t get double-digit fantasy points for the seventh straight game this year. Aubrey has made at least two field goals in every game this year including at least one 50+ yard attempt in each contest.

Anders Carlson is viable in this matchup. He replaced Jake Moody last week and will do so again in this matchup as Moody has been ruled out for this game. Carlson went 2-for-2 last week against the Chiefs and he made a 50+ yard attempt as well. The 49ers will definitely move the ball on this Cowboys defense so we just need a few field goals from Anders, who correlates well with several San Francisco skill position players.

 

 

 

Cowboys vs. 49ers DFS Player Pool: SNF, 10/27

Player Pool

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