Happy Thanksgiving FANation!

Is there anything better than Thanksgiving and NFL football? How about spicing it up with some NFL DFS action to make your day even more exciting? 

Sure, your seasonal fantasy football lineups and Week 13 matchups matter, but wouldn’t it be even sweeter to cap off the holiday with some extra cash to go along with that pumpkin pie?

 

 

Thanksgiving Matchups to Watch:

This year’s three-game slate is packed with action, giving DFS players a chance to get creative. However, it’s crucial to approach this short slate strategically. 

Personally, I stick to GPP tournaments only for days like this. The limited number of games often leads to heavy player overlap in cash games, which raises the pay-lines and makes it tougher to win consistently. Thanksgiving DFS is more about having a bit of fun and taking calculated risks.

Short slates can get unpredictable, as many participants aim to find that one low-owned player who could break the slate. If that “dart throw” hits, it could provide a massive edge, but keep in mind the inherent risk of a complete bust. 

That’s why I recommend playing conservatively with your bankroll and treating these contests as a fun addition to your Thanksgiving celebrations.

With three games spread across the day, you’ve got plenty of time to enjoy football, food, and some DFS excitement. 

Let’s make this Thanksgiving one to remember—both for the big plays on the field and a potential boost to your wallet!

 

 

 

NFL DFS QB Picks For Thanksgiving Day

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

We don't exactly have the best QB's to choose from on Thanksgiving this season and I personally think that the Lions running backs are going to absolutely have their turkey and eat it too but we did see Sam Darnold light up the Bears defense last week throwing to Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson and while Amon-Ra St.Brown could get shut down by Jaylon Johnson much like Justin Jefferson did last week, that doesn't mean Goff can't go out there and throw for 230 and a touchdown or two in this matchup.

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

The Bears are near double-digit underdogs on the road here which could end up being a good thing from a pure volume stand point for Caleb Williams. Last week the Bears were down two scores going into the second half and then we saw an explosion of offense by Chicago which led to 47 pass attempts.

The offensive line for the Bears is the real problem but if they can keep Williams upright long enough he certainly has the pass catchers to do damage against this Lions secondary which is the “weaker” point of their defense.

Cooper Rush, Dallas Cowboys

We've mocked the Cowboys offense this season and for good reason but just because the offense may not look good in real life doesn't mean it can't be good for fantasy and over the last two weeks we've seen pretty solid production out of Cooper Rush in DFS with the Cowboy's QB totaling 17.98 and 20.36 fantasy points against the Commanders and the Texans.

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

I really don't love that it's going to be below 20 degrees at kick off. Cold hands, hard footballs can be difficult to grip and therefore, can be difficult to throw as well.

That said, if I had to pick a team better suited to play in the cold weather it would be Green Bay and therefore I give Jordan Love the nod here in a game that still has a 47 game total where the Packers are home favorites. 

 

 

 

NFL DFS RB Picks For Thanksgiving Day

Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery, Detroit Lions

I think we see a lot of DFS lineups this weekend feature BOTH Lions running backs and for good reason as the Bears defense has struggled against the run which we saw last week when Aaron Jones ran all over the place.

The Lions are also big favorites at home in this game where points are expected to be scored. Both running backs have proven capable of feasting together and I wouldn't be shocked to see them sharing a turkey leg at the end of the game on Thursday.

Tyrone Tracy, New York Giants

We don't know who the QB will be for the Giants on Thursday but we do know that Tracy is going to be the featured back for New York against a Cowboys run defense that has really struggled this season.

Tracy is the clear lead back and while it was definitely frustrating to see Devin Singletary poach a touchdown last week, I'm expecting the Giants offense to know where their bread is buttered in this matchup and will pass Tracy the stuffing plenty of times on Thursday.

Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers

Right around the time everyone is waking up from their post thanksgiving day nap and ready to dig into the cookies and pie we have the Dolphins and Packers kicking off.

This game is going to be COLD with temperatures south of 20 degrees at kickoff. This perfect weather for the ground and pound style of offense we know the Packers love to run and I'd expect to see 20+ carries from Jacobs in this game as the Green Bay offense takes care of the Dolphins defense.

De'Vone Achane, Miami Dolphins

The struggles for Tua Tagovailoa in the cold are well documented and with frigid temperatures it would make sense that Miami looks to utilize their elite speed and wear down the Packers defense with a heavy running and short passing attack where Achane can be an elite playmaker. 

Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are finally biting the bullet and fully committing to Dowdle as their lead running back. In the team's win over the Commanders last week we saw Dowdle finish with a season high 19 carries for 86 yards while adding an additional three receptions.

The Giants do not have a great run defense and Dallas should continue to feed Dowdle the football in this matchup.

 

 

 

NFL DFS WR Picks For Thanksgiving Day

Detroit Lions Wide Receivers

  • Amon-Ra St.Brown - He's going to have his work cut out for him in this matchup as he likely sees Bears top CB Jaylon Johnson who has shut down elite wide receivers all year long which included holding Justin Jefferson to just two catches for 27 yards last week.
  • Jameson Williams - My favorite of the two Lions WR's this week. Yes, he is definitely a boom/bust play but the booms have been more frequent than the busts this season and the Bears have been getting torched this season by opposing team's WR2's. 
  • Tim Patrick - It's a three game slate so we need to give EVERYONE some extra considerations for our DFS lineups and Patrick played 50% of the offensive snaps last week, hauling in all four of his targets for 55 yards. He is the perfect GPP dart throw that could be the reason you take down a tournament if he finds the end zone on a long catch at lower ownership.

Chicago Bears Wide Receivers

  • DJ Moore - Over the last two weeks Moore has 14 catches on 14 targets for 168 yards and a touchdown. If you read the DFS playbook last week you knew that I love the matchup for Moore and while it was Keenan Allen who did the early damage and led the team in targets, we still got the big time fantasy production out of Moore we were looking for. Even with the target share over the last few weeks has favored Keenan Allen over Moore, we can't just ignore the 14 total targets.
  • Keenan Allen - As Howard Bender has been trying to tell you this week, it's been Keenan Allen who leads the target share since the change at offensive coordinator with Allen totaling 23 targets over the last two weeks while finishing with 13 receptions for 137 yards and a touchdown. I think both receivers could be in a position to see heavy targets if the Lions go up early as many expect to see happen.
  • Rome Odunze - Over the last two weeks the Bears rookie WR has totaled 20 targets, finishing with 11 receptions for 104 yards. He has played over 80% of the team's offensive snaps as the Bears are running a ton of three wide receiver sets.

Dallas Cowboys Wide Receivers

  • CeeDee Lamb - We can hate on Cooper Rush and this Cowboys offense all we want but Lamb's 77 catches on the year is the most in football and he is an absolute target monster. The Giants defense is not very good and I'm not even sure there is much fight left in them as they continue to lose games while their organization is in shambles from top to bottom. I can see Lamb going out there and having a big time performance this week.
  • Jalen Tolbert/Brandin Cooks/KaVontae Turpin- I don't really love the secondary receivers for the Cowboys this week but I'm sure one of two of them will make some plays. Brandin Cooks being activated off of IL certainly complicates things because we don't know how much or how little he will actually play. Tolbert has been the number two receiver while Cooks was hurt and Turpin profiles as a total dart throw with hopes that he returns a kick OR takes one of his two targets to the house for a long touchdown.

New York Giants Wide Receivers

  • Malik Nabers - I mean, if I'm the Giants I don't exactly love the postgame interview that Nabers gave after the team's loss last week but do you blame him? What he said is 100% accurate and it's something that I've long never understood when it came to bad football teams. Why are you not getting the ball in the hands of your playmakers? Nabers shouldn't be going whole drives without targets, never mind halves. Whether it was the “Randy Ratio” or Keyshawn Johnson's “Just Give Me the Damn Ball” - Diva.. I mean “star” wide receivers should be involved early and often because you never know when they are going to break one off for a long score.
  • Wan'Dale Robinson - He's not exciting but he gets the job done for DFS. We should expect around eight targets going to Wan'Dale in this game and he's usually pulling in a good ratio. Safe floor play in this matchup.
  • Darius Slayton - He saw nearly 60% of the offensive snaps last week which translated into 0 catches on two targets. If Drew Lock is the QB and Slayton is going to play 60+ percent of the offensive snaps again then I have some interest as Lock is primed to take a few shots down field which Slayton could be that guy who is low rostered with GPP upside if he can haul it in for a long score.

 Green Bay Packers Wide Receivers

  • Jayden Reed - With Romeo Doubs out the Packers may lean on Reed more in this game as a go to playmaker for Jordan Love. Reed is certainly more explosive than Doubs but it is Doubs that moves the chains and gets those “gotta have it” targets given his chemistry with Love.  
  • Christian Watson - Watson should have had a long touchdown catch last week but his issues with drops continue. Watson is an exciting downfield playmaker but is very inconsistent due to his inability to hold onto the football. That said, if and when the Packers decide to take some shots downfield in this game you know those targets are likely finding their way to Watson.
  • Dontayvion Wicks - Whenever one of the Packers receivers goes down we see Wicks rise up. Wicks has been pretty good when given an increased role and we know that in the red zone he also gets the looks from Jordan Love. I think he ends up being the highest rostered Packers WR this week in DFS.

Miami Dolphins Wide Receivers

  • Tyreek Hill - Hill is obviously no stranger to playing in cold weather seeing as he began his career in Kansas City but I do worry about his wrist injury and the cold weather impacting his ability to catch the football. I also fear the Dolphins struggles in cold weather, especially their QB.
  • Jaylen Waddle - Waddle is coming off of a monster game and profiles better in this type of game environment where the short and intermediate passing game may suit Tua Tagovailoa better in the freezing temperatures.

 

 

 

NFL DFS TE Picks For Thanksgiving Day

Theo Johnson, New York Giants

I'm all about my “punt” tight ends on these short slates but there is some sneaky value to be had here. The rookie tight end has seen six targets in three straight games with at least 35 yards receiving in four straight contests. He found the end zone back in Week 9 against the Commanders and regardless of who the QB is, the Giants are often playing from behind which leads to increased pass attempts and therefore opportunities for Johnson to see targets. 

Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers

No Romeo Doubs in this one and everyone then turns to the Packers wide receivers but why not their athletic tight end? The Dolphins haven't been great defensively against the tight end position and we know the defensive focus is going to be on stopping Jayden Reed, Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks which could lead to some softer coverages underneath for Kraft to make some plays in this cold weather game.

Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions

Yeah, the dude has definitely been a disappointment this season as he battled through injury and the ascension of Jameson Williams as a legitimate number two receiver in this Lions offense which is something they did not have last season BUT I think we could get a good game from LaPorta this week thanks to Bears CB Jaylon Johnson and his elite coverage skills.

Last week we saw Justin Jefferson finish with just two receptions with Johnson's coverage but Jordan Addison and tight end T.J. Hockenson both had big time performances.

Whose to say that this week it isn't Jameson Williams and LaPorta doing the damage while ARSB is locked down?

Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins

I don't think the Dolphins get shut out in this game and often times we do over exaggerate the impact the weather has on the game being played. There is no precipitation in this game its just going to be really really cold.

Smith has been fantastic for the Dolphins this season, on pace for a career year and he should get his looks in this matchup against the Packers this week.

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