UPDATED (10/28): 4:45pm ET

Welcome back to my new and improved NFL Best Bets and Prop Bets blog! Are you ready to continue the domination for NFL Week 8? There are no teams on a bye this week, so we have a full run of games from which to choose and I am already excited about what’s to come.

 

 

 

If this is your first visit, welcome. We have a number of betting articles on the site for you to check out – most of them also including some fantastic sportsbook promo offers we have – but this one is specific to my NFL picks and will be continuously updated throughout the week as I set up and finalize my NFL best bets. 

It will stay atop my writer’s page once it comes out and I will announce any updates and added bets in the Fantasy Alarm Discord as well as on my social media accounts. As the bets hit (or miss) I will update the article, so you have full transparency of my wins and losses.

Last week was a great way to get back to normal for me. I restored my process, took my time with my reads and the results were solid. Perfect? No. But rock solid and a great first step to getting back to building that bankroll the way it should be built. 

I went 4-1 on my game bets which is where my strengths are. I don’t mind prop bets and will continue to post some, but I generally prefer to stay with betting against the spread or looking at the over/under. 

I did have seven props posted and only hit two of them, but both my Calvin Ridley and Zay Flowers props were negatively impacted by injury. It’s not an excuse because a loss is a loss, but the process that got me there was still correct. 

The one that missed that hurt the most was the Drake London prop because my original pick was the under on his receiving yards, but I flipped last-minute due to the injuries in the Seattle secondary. I should have just gone with my original call. Again, don’t expect a ton of props from me each week. There will be some but I’m much more focused on us winning than doling out a boatload of props that you may or may not be interested in. 

So, let’s not waste any more time. Let’s get to my NFL Week 8 Best Bets and Props.

 

 

 

NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets For Thursday Night Football, 10/24

Vikings vs. Rams Best Bet: Thursday, October 24th

If you’ve heard the Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, you know the segment we do called Suspicious Lines. We take an early look at point spreads and look to see where the traps might be. Last week, we nailed it with the Jaguars and this game’s line is giving me similar vibes. 

The Vikings are 5-1 on the season, their defense is ranked No. 1 against both the run and the pass, and their offense is cooking with Sam Darnold and Aaron Jones joining the likes of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. They may even get T.J. Hockenson back for this one.

The Rams, on the other hand, are 2-4 on the year, rank in the bottom-eight against both the run and the pass, according to DVOA, and are averaging fewer than 20 points per game this season. They have been routinely criticized regarding their offensive line and the pass-protection for Matthew Stafford.

I get that maybe Cooper Kupp is returning for this game, but even on the road, how are the Vikings only a three-point favorite in this one? Darnold has definitely had some ups-and-downs in prime-time and in each of the last three games, we’ve seen the Vikings go up early, only to watch their defense give back a substantial number of points. 

Still, I think the Vikings win this one, so no money line bet, but this line is screaming take the Vikings because, of course, they can beat the Rams by at least a field goal, right? I know it’s not data-driven analysis, but as the cliche goes, “any given Sunday…” Or Thursday, I suppose.

 

 

 

NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets For Sunday, 10/27

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Best Bet: Sunday, October 27th

These teams already played back in Week 5 when the Falcons won 36-30, covering a 2.5-point spread as a home favorite. The public is putting a lot of weight on that game and even more weight on the fact that both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are out for this game. It’s understandable as Atlanta is already 3-0 in the division and 2-1 against the spread in those games. They’re also 2-0 ATS on the road this year. I just don’t know if I’m able to commit to them so easily. 

There’s actually a lot of data pointing in the other direction, from retread coaches like Raheem Morris going 84-66 straight-up but just 49-90-11 ATD as road favorites to veteran quarterbacks like Kirk Cousins going 42-31 straight-up but 27-45-1 ATS as a road favorite in their first year with their new team. I don’t want to get too bogged down with the data, though. It’s more about Todd Bowles having his defense better prepared and having free safety Antoine Winfield back in action. It’s about Atlanta missing linebacker Troy Andersen and strong safety Justin Simmons. Both offenses are capable of putting up points, including the Bucs with their back-up receivers. The last game was a great back-and-forth OT thriller and I think this one stays equally close. 

Bills vs. Seahawks Best Bet: Sunday, October 27th

This is an interesting one as the Bills are averaging 28.4 points per game while the Seahawks are allowing 25.7 points per game for a total of 54.1. Defensively, the Bills are allowing just 19.4 points per game and the Seahawks are at 23.4 for a total of 43.8. You would think Vegas would meet somewhere in the middle somewhere with an over/under of 48 or even 47.5, but looking around, I’m seeing 45 and 45.5 instead. Maybe it's the reports of rain, but intermittent bands of rain can be tough to predict. We'll have to keep an eye on the weather closer to game-time.

As for the play on the field, I get that Buffalo can’t stop the run and being without DK Metcalf you might think the Seahawks try to slow it down a little with a run-heavy scheme, but they are still leading the league in pass attempts by a country mile. Meanwhile, you’ve got the Bills looking to open things up through the air a little more and their acquisition of Amari Cooper enforces those beliefs. Even with the travel for the Bills, I don’t see this being too low-scoring of an affair.

**UPDATED (10/27)  – If you haven't made this bet yet, keep watching the weather. Haven't seen any changes yet. If the forecast maintains, you may want to avoid. I have already locked this bet in myself, but it's your money, so just letting you know the risks involved.

Cowboys vs. 49ers Best Bet: Sunday, October 27th

Sunday Night Football get an historic rivalry game this week, though, surprisingly, both teams are reeling a bit here in the first half of the season. The 49ers are just 3-4 on the season, lost Brandon Aiyuk for the year with a torn ACL, a questionable Deebo Samuel is still recovering from pneumonia and replacement wideout Jauan Jennings is out with a hip injury.  They are also dealing with some injuries on defense, though no one outside of Deommodore Lenoir is really popping on my radar.

On the other side, the Cowboys, who have no running game and struggle to stop the run, just got destroyed by the Lions, giving them lots to think about over their bye week. They are also struggling with injuries, particularly on defense as Micah Parsons remains out, DeMarcus Lawrence is on IR and both LB Eric Kendricks and CB Caelon Carson are listed as questionable. Expectations of a big game from Jordan Mason are in order and whichever team ends up on the losing side of things is going to have trouble making the playoffs, given their place in the standings within their respective divisions.

Dallas is 2-1 ATS on the road this season and 2-0 ATS as a road underdog. San Francisco is 2-2 ATS as a home favorite this season with both losses coming in their last two home games. But the data that really stands out most to me is how the Cowboys are 13-5 ATS coming off a loss while teams that have lost by 30 points or more are 22-8-1 ATS as road underdogs in their following game. This one is for the GM! 

Giants vs. Steelers Best Bet: Monday, October 28th

Try as I might to decide this game against the spread, I just can't do it. Both teams have strong defenses and both have offenses that concern me. New York's offensive line is going to have a lot of issues with T.J. Watt, Daniel Jones continue to struggle and this offense remains stuck in the mid, averaging just 14 points per game this season. But the Steelers, led by offensive coordinator Arthur Smith are really no better. I get that Russell Wilson unlocked George Pickens and everyone is excited, but they still have a long way to go before we can just sign-off on them being great. The Giants defense also happens to allow the fifth-fewest passing yards per game and lead the league with 31 sacks. Given the recent struggles of the Pittsburgh offensive line, the Steelers covering a six-point spread seem a little suspect. I think the Steelers can win this one 17-10 but they could also win it 13-10. Either way, what I do know is that it will not be a high-scoring affair.

Best NFL Week 8 Player Prop Bets

 

 

 

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