NFL Week 12 Best Bets and Player Props: Thanksgiving Day
The NFL and Thanksgiving Day go hand-in-hand and that means we get to throw down some action while visiting with friends and family and stuffing our faces. If you are looking for football picks and other best bets, we’ve got you smothered and covered here at Fantasy Alarm as this three-game slate looks like an all-day all-you-can-eat buffet. The action gets started with a heated NFC North rivalry with Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions hosting Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers. Then we get a battle from the NFC East as Sam Howell leads the Washington Commanders into Big D to face CeeDee Lamb and the Dallas Cowboys. And for your evening pleasure, it’s a battle for supremacy in the NFC West as Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers head north to take on DK Metcalf and the Seattle Seahawks. All three games look to be entertaining, but what are we thinking for best bets and player props? Let’s take a look!
2023 NFL Thanksgiving Day Best Bets and Player Props
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
While the Lions escaped with a win over Chicago last week, Jared Goff didn’t exactly play very well, did he? Does he get some retribution on Thursday or does Dan Campbell just run it down the Packers throats with his own version of thunder and lightning – David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs? I’m going to lean on Option B there. Not that I don’t think Goff won’t want to throw but with how soft the Packers run defense it, it seems like a foregone conclusion. On the other side, the Packers are dealing with some injuries to their backfield as Aaron Jones is out and AJ Dillon is listed as questionable. The team signed Patrick Taylor and James Robinson for depth, but it looks like the ball will be in Jordan Love’s hands for this one. The Lions are 7-3 against the spread this season and whatever their record is on Thanksgiving Day is irrelevant as this is a much different team than we’ve seen in a long time. The Packers are 5-5 against the spread, so we’re going to let the trend be our friend for the opening game:
My Picks:
- Lions -7.5 (-110)
- Jayden Reed Anytime TD (+175)
- Tucker Kraft over 2.5 receptions (-155)
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
I’m a bit at odds with myself for this game as the spread has gone from Dallas -11 to now Dallas -12.5 and I absolutely hate laying double-digit points. Tried that with Miami last week and it got me nowhere. But the Cowboys are 7-3 ATS this season and are 10-1 straight up and 7-4 ATS on Thanksgiving Day when favored by more than a touchdown, However, they are 5-4 ATS with that big of a spread on Thanksgiving since 2000, so suddenly it doesn’t look so good for them to cover, does it? We know the Cowboys dominance this season and it’s difficult to stray from them when we’ve seen what Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb have done to the opposition recently. But we also know that, despite not having a defense or putting up any real fight against the Giants last week, the Commanders are going to be airing it out all game. Sam Howell is averaging over 40 pass attempts per game and while Dallas may grab a lead, Howell has a no-quit attitude and he should help Washington keep it reasonably close. Close enough for a back-door cover.
My Picks:
- Commanders +12.5 (-110)
- Dak Prescott over 276.5 passing yards (-115)
- Sam Howell over 39.5 pass attempts (-110)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
The Thanksgiving game nightcap features a heated battle between the division-leading 49ers and the Seahawks who are just one game behind in the standings. The problem for Seattle, though, is that not only are they dealing with an elbow injury to Geno Smith which could mean we see Drew Lock under center, but we are also hearing that Kenneth Walker is listed as doubtful with an oblique injury which means there’s a heavy burden on the shoulders of rookie Zach Charbonnet going up against one of the best defenses in the league. The addition of Chase Young to that defensive line and pass-rush is a nightmare for opposing teams. On top of that, the 49ers are at full health and firing on all cylinders offensively as well. Brock Purdy has looked outstanding and he’s got nothing but playmakers surrounding him. Normally, I would say all of that and then take the Seahawks and the points because that’s what I like to do, but instead, I’m just going to look at the alt-lines and stay with the road team.
My Picks:
- 49ers -6.5 (-120)
- Deebo Samuel over 61.5 rush +rec yards (-115)
**all lines & odds courtesy of BetMGM
Also, if you don't have set plans for Thanksgiving Day or you're just watching the games, come check out the Scott Fish Bowl Thanksgiving Day Classic in the BettorCast App! It's FREE to download, FREE to play and you could win all sorts of prizes just for answering some pre-game and in-game prop questions. You can also hang out with me throughout the day and I will be visited by none other than Scott Fish himself! And best of all, Fantasy Alarm is donating $1 for every download of the Bettorcast app to FantasyCares.org, so please join us and spread the word!
Player News
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports Saints hosted free agent CB Asante Samuel for a visit Monday.
Samuel, fresh off offseason neck surgery, visited with the Saints Monday as he pursues his next playing opportunity. He has clear connection to the franchise after they hired Brandon Staley to fill their defensive coordinator position, for whom Samuel played under with the Chargers. Fowler adds that Samuel has another doctor visit scheduled for early July, during which time he hopes to gain clearance to resume football activities.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports Packers met with WR Jayden Reed’s agent, Drew Rosenhaus, to clarify his status with the team.
The meeting comes after the Packers selected a wide receiver in the first round for the first time since 2002 in this year’s draft. ESPN’s Adam Schefter added that the team emphasized Reed’s status as the top option at wide receiver after the selection of Matthew Golden and Savion Williams. “Green Bay’s top receiver” means far less for fantasy than it does in other places around the league considering Reed led the team with just 62.6% of the team’s offensive snaps played in 2024.
Saints signed QB Hunter Dekkers.
Dekkers spent three seasons with the Cyclones of Iowa State before stepping away from football following an indictment surrounding charges related to sports gambling. He then played his final collegiate season at Iowa Western before being invited to Saints camp. Dekkers spent his redshirt season backing up Brock Purdy at Iowa State.
Seahawks signed No. 18 overall pick OG Grey Zabel to a four-year contract.
Per ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Zabel’s deal is worth a guaranteed $18.471 million. The former North Dakota State guard will be tasked with bolstering a Seahawks line that ranked 26th in PFF pass blocking grades and 24th in run blocking grades. The Seahawks didn’t do much to address their offensive line this offseason, with Zabel being the biggest addition to date. The FCS stud showed out at this year’s senior bowl, and brings high expectations into his rookie season after dominating at the college ranks.
Free agent WR Gabe Davis is visiting the 49ers on Monday.
It’s the first known interest we’ve seen of Davis, who was released by the Jaguars last week with a failed physical designation. The 49ers will likely be without Brandon Aiyuk to start the season, and the idea of adding another veteran to the room is appealing. Kyle Shanahan can turn a lot of football players into something fantasy-interesting, but Davis might be a step beyond even his schemes.
Falcons released WR Phillip Dorsett.
What was your favorite moment of Dorsett’s three-month run on a reserve/future contract with the Falcons? Was it when the signing was announced, or was it when the release happened? Dorsett will try to bounce to another team as wideout depth as he enters his age-32 season. He did not play NFL snaps last year and was only targeted three times by the Broncos in 2023.