NFL Week 12 Best Bets and Player Props: Thanksgiving Day
The NFL and Thanksgiving Day go hand-in-hand and that means we get to throw down some action while visiting with friends and family and stuffing our faces. If you are looking for football picks and other best bets, we’ve got you smothered and covered here at Fantasy Alarm as this three-game slate looks like an all-day all-you-can-eat buffet. The action gets started with a heated NFC North rivalry with Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions hosting Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers. Then we get a battle from the NFC East as Sam Howell leads the Washington Commanders into Big D to face CeeDee Lamb and the Dallas Cowboys. And for your evening pleasure, it’s a battle for supremacy in the NFC West as Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers head north to take on DK Metcalf and the Seattle Seahawks. All three games look to be entertaining, but what are we thinking for best bets and player props? Let’s take a look!
2023 NFL Thanksgiving Day Best Bets and Player Props
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
While the Lions escaped with a win over Chicago last week, Jared Goff didn’t exactly play very well, did he? Does he get some retribution on Thursday or does Dan Campbell just run it down the Packers throats with his own version of thunder and lightning – David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs? I’m going to lean on Option B there. Not that I don’t think Goff won’t want to throw but with how soft the Packers run defense it, it seems like a foregone conclusion. On the other side, the Packers are dealing with some injuries to their backfield as Aaron Jones is out and AJ Dillon is listed as questionable. The team signed Patrick Taylor and James Robinson for depth, but it looks like the ball will be in Jordan Love’s hands for this one. The Lions are 7-3 against the spread this season and whatever their record is on Thanksgiving Day is irrelevant as this is a much different team than we’ve seen in a long time. The Packers are 5-5 against the spread, so we’re going to let the trend be our friend for the opening game:
My Picks:
- Lions -7.5 (-110)
- Jayden Reed Anytime TD (+175)
- Tucker Kraft over 2.5 receptions (-155)
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
I’m a bit at odds with myself for this game as the spread has gone from Dallas -11 to now Dallas -12.5 and I absolutely hate laying double-digit points. Tried that with Miami last week and it got me nowhere. But the Cowboys are 7-3 ATS this season and are 10-1 straight up and 7-4 ATS on Thanksgiving Day when favored by more than a touchdown, However, they are 5-4 ATS with that big of a spread on Thanksgiving since 2000, so suddenly it doesn’t look so good for them to cover, does it? We know the Cowboys dominance this season and it’s difficult to stray from them when we’ve seen what Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb have done to the opposition recently. But we also know that, despite not having a defense or putting up any real fight against the Giants last week, the Commanders are going to be airing it out all game. Sam Howell is averaging over 40 pass attempts per game and while Dallas may grab a lead, Howell has a no-quit attitude and he should help Washington keep it reasonably close. Close enough for a back-door cover.
My Picks:
- Commanders +12.5 (-110)
- Dak Prescott over 276.5 passing yards (-115)
- Sam Howell over 39.5 pass attempts (-110)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
The Thanksgiving game nightcap features a heated battle between the division-leading 49ers and the Seahawks who are just one game behind in the standings. The problem for Seattle, though, is that not only are they dealing with an elbow injury to Geno Smith which could mean we see Drew Lock under center, but we are also hearing that Kenneth Walker is listed as doubtful with an oblique injury which means there’s a heavy burden on the shoulders of rookie Zach Charbonnet going up against one of the best defenses in the league. The addition of Chase Young to that defensive line and pass-rush is a nightmare for opposing teams. On top of that, the 49ers are at full health and firing on all cylinders offensively as well. Brock Purdy has looked outstanding and he’s got nothing but playmakers surrounding him. Normally, I would say all of that and then take the Seahawks and the points because that’s what I like to do, but instead, I’m just going to look at the alt-lines and stay with the road team.
My Picks:
- 49ers -6.5 (-120)
- Deebo Samuel over 61.5 rush +rec yards (-115)
**all lines & odds courtesy of BetMGM
Also, if you don't have set plans for Thanksgiving Day or you're just watching the games, come check out the Scott Fish Bowl Thanksgiving Day Classic in the BettorCast App! It's FREE to download, FREE to play and you could win all sorts of prizes just for answering some pre-game and in-game prop questions. You can also hang out with me throughout the day and I will be visited by none other than Scott Fish himself! And best of all, Fantasy Alarm is donating $1 for every download of the Bettorcast app to FantasyCares.org, so please join us and spread the word!
Player News
The Fort Lauderdale Police Department released a report detailing additional information regarding Quinshon Judkins’ arrest for domestic battery over the weekend.
The full report can be found at the link provided at the end of the blurb, but the details are quite disturbing. Arresting officer Steven Pohorence reported that the victim of Judkins’ alleged assault reported the incident the day after it occurred, alleging Judkins “punched her in the mouth/chin area with a closed fist” while adding he later struck her in the arm and thigh. The victim also showed pictures of her chin/lip area, with officer Pohorence noting in the report “the bruising was clearly evident.” Bruises could also be found on her arm and thigh. This situation is far from resolved and could have a direct impact on Judkins’ availability for training camp as he remains unsigned at this time.
The Athletic’s Matt Barrows reports Jauan Jennings “is expected to be on hand when the 49ers’ veterans report for training camp next Tuesday.”
This comes after it was announced that Jennings was seeking either a new contract or a trade before the start of this season. Jennings reporting to camp is good in theory, but as Barrows also points out, last year’s Brandon Aiyuk situation showed a player reporting to camp while in a contract dispute can be anything but beneficial. In recent years, players have resorted to “hold-ins” during camp to avoid fines for not reporting, which could be Jennings’ approach when he does report next week. We’ll likely get a better sense of where things are headed with this situation as camp draws nearer.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports 49ers WR Jauan Jennings is seeking a new contract or a trade before the start of the season.
It’s odd that this would come out a week before training camp rather than earlier in the offseason, but Jennings’ desire for a new deal is warranted. The sixth-year receiver is coming off a breakout season in which he caught 77 passes for 975 yards and six touchdowns — all career-highs, and is expected to play a significant role this season. The 49ers extended Jennings’ contract last season, but he’s set to earn just $7.5 million in the final year of his deal, which is well-below what a player of his caliber should be earning. With Brandon Aiyuk (knee) a likely PUP candidate and Ricky Pearsall entering the season with much to prove, it goes without saying that Jennings is the best available receiver on the 49ers right now, which could spur the team to get a new deal done. That said, we’ve seen the Niners drag out contract discussions before, and wouldn’t expect anything immediate as this story continues to develop.
The Athletic’s Vic Tafur believes Jacob Cowing in 2025 “could take a lot of the departed Deebo Samuel’s gadget plays.”
Cowing boasts 4.3 speed and reportedly added weight in the offseason after weighing in at 168 pounds as a rookie. With Samuel now in Washington and Aiyuk (knee) a candidate to open the season on the PUP list, it’s easy to see an early path for Cowing to earn more opportunities this season. Last year’s first-rounder, Ricky Pearsall, is also expected to see an uptick in targets and Jauan Jennings is coming off a breakout season (77-975-6), but Cowing makes for an interesting late-round target in deeper leagues given the current state of the Niners’ receiving room. Cowing caught 316 passes for 4,477 yards and 33 touchdowns during five college seasons while averaging a solid 6.3 yards after the catch per reception.
The Athletic’s Zack Rosenblatt said “it would not shock me if the Jets went from last to first in terms of rushing attempts” this season.
In addition to his belief that the Jets could lead the league in rush attempts, Rosenblatt also adds that Braelon Allen will “have plenty of opportunities” to make an impact this season as Breece Hall enters the final year of his rookie deal. Allen was selected 134th overall last season and finished his rookie year with 92 carries for 334 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 3.6 YPC. According to Rosenblatt, head coach Aaron Glenn and offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand are hoping to model their offense after the one Ben Johnson ran in Detroit, with Breece Hall playing the “Jahmyr Gibbs role” and Allen playing the “David Montgomery role.” Should this come to fruition, Allen could have tons of late-round fantasy value for those willing to take shots on him.
The Athletic’s Jourdan Rodrigue reports that Kyren Williams’ contract extension “could be worked out by the end of training camp,” but notes that “the Rams will not pay top-market money for a running back.”
Rodrigue believes that the two sides’ continued contract talk “is a good sign” for an early extension. “Williams is a team leader and one of the more productive at his position,” but “he doesn’t hit ‘home run’ explosives,” which hurts his negotiating power, particularly at a position considered low-value by some. Still, Williams’ overall productivity works in his favor. Rodrigue notes, “training camp is the usual timeline for such deals under this era of Rams leadership,” giving fantasy managers an expected timeline to follow.