NFL Week 12 Best Bets and Player Props: Thanksgiving Day
The NFL and Thanksgiving Day go hand-in-hand and that means we get to throw down some action while visiting with friends and family and stuffing our faces. If you are looking for football picks and other best bets, we’ve got you smothered and covered here at Fantasy Alarm as this three-game slate looks like an all-day all-you-can-eat buffet. The action gets started with a heated NFC North rivalry with Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions hosting Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers. Then we get a battle from the NFC East as Sam Howell leads the Washington Commanders into Big D to face CeeDee Lamb and the Dallas Cowboys. And for your evening pleasure, it’s a battle for supremacy in the NFC West as Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers head north to take on DK Metcalf and the Seattle Seahawks. All three games look to be entertaining, but what are we thinking for best bets and player props? Let’s take a look!
2023 NFL Thanksgiving Day Best Bets and Player Props
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
While the Lions escaped with a win over Chicago last week, Jared Goff didn’t exactly play very well, did he? Does he get some retribution on Thursday or does Dan Campbell just run it down the Packers throats with his own version of thunder and lightning – David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs? I’m going to lean on Option B there. Not that I don’t think Goff won’t want to throw but with how soft the Packers run defense it, it seems like a foregone conclusion. On the other side, the Packers are dealing with some injuries to their backfield as Aaron Jones is out and AJ Dillon is listed as questionable. The team signed Patrick Taylor and James Robinson for depth, but it looks like the ball will be in Jordan Love’s hands for this one. The Lions are 7-3 against the spread this season and whatever their record is on Thanksgiving Day is irrelevant as this is a much different team than we’ve seen in a long time. The Packers are 5-5 against the spread, so we’re going to let the trend be our friend for the opening game:
My Picks:
- Lions -7.5 (-110)
- Jayden Reed Anytime TD (+175)
- Tucker Kraft over 2.5 receptions (-155)
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
I’m a bit at odds with myself for this game as the spread has gone from Dallas -11 to now Dallas -12.5 and I absolutely hate laying double-digit points. Tried that with Miami last week and it got me nowhere. But the Cowboys are 7-3 ATS this season and are 10-1 straight up and 7-4 ATS on Thanksgiving Day when favored by more than a touchdown, However, they are 5-4 ATS with that big of a spread on Thanksgiving since 2000, so suddenly it doesn’t look so good for them to cover, does it? We know the Cowboys dominance this season and it’s difficult to stray from them when we’ve seen what Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb have done to the opposition recently. But we also know that, despite not having a defense or putting up any real fight against the Giants last week, the Commanders are going to be airing it out all game. Sam Howell is averaging over 40 pass attempts per game and while Dallas may grab a lead, Howell has a no-quit attitude and he should help Washington keep it reasonably close. Close enough for a back-door cover.
My Picks:
- Commanders +12.5 (-110)
- Dak Prescott over 276.5 passing yards (-115)
- Sam Howell over 39.5 pass attempts (-110)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
The Thanksgiving game nightcap features a heated battle between the division-leading 49ers and the Seahawks who are just one game behind in the standings. The problem for Seattle, though, is that not only are they dealing with an elbow injury to Geno Smith which could mean we see Drew Lock under center, but we are also hearing that Kenneth Walker is listed as doubtful with an oblique injury which means there’s a heavy burden on the shoulders of rookie Zach Charbonnet going up against one of the best defenses in the league. The addition of Chase Young to that defensive line and pass-rush is a nightmare for opposing teams. On top of that, the 49ers are at full health and firing on all cylinders offensively as well. Brock Purdy has looked outstanding and he’s got nothing but playmakers surrounding him. Normally, I would say all of that and then take the Seahawks and the points because that’s what I like to do, but instead, I’m just going to look at the alt-lines and stay with the road team.
My Picks:
- 49ers -6.5 (-120)
- Deebo Samuel over 61.5 rush +rec yards (-115)
**all lines & odds courtesy of BetMGM
Also, if you don't have set plans for Thanksgiving Day or you're just watching the games, come check out the Scott Fish Bowl Thanksgiving Day Classic in the BettorCast App! It's FREE to download, FREE to play and you could win all sorts of prizes just for answering some pre-game and in-game prop questions. You can also hang out with me throughout the day and I will be visited by none other than Scott Fish himself! And best of all, Fantasy Alarm is donating $1 for every download of the Bettorcast app to FantasyCares.org, so please join us and spread the word!
Player News
Free agent WR Chase Claypool revealed the severity of the toe injury he suffered in July 2024.
In a social media post, the 26-year-old receiver explains that he “tore a ligament and tendon” in his second toe on his left foot and has “been rehabbing, working out, and recovering everyday for the past year.” This explains his extended absence. Following the injury, Claypool was briefly placed on injured reserve in August 2024 before being released with an injury settlement. He is “back to being the strongest and fastest” he’s ever been and is “excited to step back out on the field.”
Free agent LB Jason Pierre-Paul hopes to sign with an NFL team, ideally the Giants, in “a full-circle moment.”
Per ESPN’s Jordan Raanan, “Pierre-Paul still believes he can help a team, that he can be a veteran closer.” The 36-year-old has continued training to remain NFL-ready despite failing to find a suitor for the 2024 season. He logged 22 defensive snaps, playing for both the Saints and Dolphins in 2023. His last sack occurred as a Raven, in a Wild Card Weekend loss to the Bengals in the prior season. Sitting at 94.5 career sacks, Pierre-Paul hopes to reach 100 as a part-time player in 2025.
The CFL’s Toronto Argonauts claimed Shedeur Sanders’ negotiating rights in case Sanders one day chooses to leave the NFL for the CFL.
There is no indication that Sanders is in contact with the Argonauts and we do not expect Sanders to leave the NFL for the CFL at this time. Every year in early July, just before NFL training camps begin, the CFL allows its teams to claim NFL players’ negotiating rights, on the off chance that the player is released or waived by his team and decides to pursue a career in Canada. Per the CFL’s Marshall Ferguson, “the CFL began releasing a few names here and there periodically, but now the full list is available for all to see from each of the nine teams.” Fans can rest assured that their high-profile, fifth-round rookie remains a Cleveland Brown.
Free agent CB Stephon Gilmore wants to play football in “the right situation” this season.
The 34-year-old veteran visited the Cowboys pre-draft but left without a contract. Gilmore is no longer an above-average starter, but he did force eight incompletions and record one interception last year. A playoff contender could benefit from signing Gilmore as an experienced option, but teams tend to not have high valuations on older cornerbacks.
ESPN’s Turron Davenport reports that Titans QB Cam Ward is adjusting to the NFL’s speed and field width while learning how to adjust protection against the blitz.
Ward is learning through trial and error, as many rookies do. The young quarterback is now aware that an open receiver in the NFL looks far different than it did in college, even when targeting a linebacker’s coverage. The NFL’s condensed field spacing has also reportedly required Ward to improve his awareness against the blitz. Per Davenport, Ward successfully showcased a lightbulb moment in this regard, which occurred “during team period when Ward recognized where the pressure was coming from and checked to a different protection to block it up.” Ward also notably signaled an audible to Calvin Ridley and connected with the veteran receiver for a touchdown. These are positive steps for a quarterback who currently profiles as a QB2 in re-draft formats.
Speaking to Rich Eisen about the Steelers’ contract talks with EDGE T.J. Watt, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero said the “most likely” outcome is that the two sides agree to an extension that resets the market before the season opener.
Pelissero recently reported that the Steelers do not plan to trade Watt, and Watt’s record-setting goals are well known, so the most recent report makes sense. The team will do its best to ensure team-friendly outs exist later in the deal, but for now, Watt appears to be on track for a hefty payday sometime before September 7th. Pelissero states succinctly, Watt’s expected extension “is going to be north of Myles Garrett—it is going to be upwards of $40 million per year.”