Jaguars vs. Texans Predictions, Picks & Odds: NFL Week 4, Sunday 9/29

After a couple of years of things looking like the Jacksonville Jaguars were going to start taking over the AFC South for a while, the Houston Texans have swooped in and had something to say about that. Even still, these division rivalries never seem to disappoint, which is why we’re here to provide you with our best Jaguars vs. Texans predictions.
Also, even if you already have Jaguars vs. Texans picks in mind, you’ll still want to check out everything below, as we have a generous $1,000 Caesars Sportsbook sign up promo for you as well!
Jaguars vs. Texans Predictions For NFL Week 4, Sunday 9/29
After making QB Trevor Lawrence the highest-paid player in the NFL on an annual basis (at the time) this offseason, it’s safe to say that the Jags were fully bought in. With his college mate RB Travis Etienne by his side, optimism in Jacksonville couldn’t have been higher.
Well, an 0-3 start has turned the tide, while the Texans are finding ways to use their abundance of weapons. However, don’t get it twisted - it hasn’t been perfect in Houston either. They’re coming off a 34-7 beatdown by the hands of the Minnesota Vikings, so this division rivalry is something both teams need in a big way.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Trying To Find Positives
It may be difficult to find things for the Jags to hang their hat on after their most recent loss, which was broadcast for the entire world to see on Monday Night Football. The 47-10 thrashing was as bad as it gets, but they can at least say that the Buffalo Bills may be the best team in the entire NFL.
As for their other losses, the first was against another AFC East team - the Miami Dolphins - which was a game that they controlled for quite a bit. The other was against the Cleveland Browns, which was one where they at least held them to just 18 points. Again, things aren’t easy in northern Florida, but these are things that the Jags need to focus on.
Houston Texans: Taking Control Of The AFC South
With the Texans snagging RB Joe Mixon and WR Stefon Diggs this offseason, expectations were that they would build on last year’s impressive 10-7 campaign. While it hasn’t been perfect, this matchup with the Jags is their opportunity to take firm hold of the division.
The AFC South has been among the weaker divisions the past few seasons now, and Houston is the only 2-1 team, and there are two 0-3 teams (Jags and Tennessee Titans). With the 1-2 Indianapolis Colts having a tough test against the 3-0 Pittsburgh Steelers this Sunday, a win for the Texans would be a big step toward full control of the AFC South.
Jaguars vs. Texans Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines
Unsurprisingly, Houston is among the biggest favorites of Week 4, and you can see that in the latest Jaguars vs. Texans odds at Caesars Sportsbook:
- Point Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars +7 (-110) vs. Houston Texans -7 (-110)
- Money Line: Jacksonville Jaguars (+250) vs. Houston Texans (-310)
- Game Total (Over/Under): Over 45.5 (-110) vs. Under 45.5 (-110)
Jaguars vs. Texans Predictions: Houston First Half -4 (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)
A point spread right on the key number of seven has oddsmakers doing us no favors, and as for the total, it feels right on point with what we expected. Therefore, we decided to look elsewhere for the best bet from our Jaguars vs. Texans predictions, and we found a market that we love.
That would be Houston to take control of the game early on, just like we saw the Bills do to the Jags on Monday Night Football. That would be putting it lightly as well - Buffalo scored a touchdown on all five first-half possessions, taking a 34-3 lead into the half.
We certainly can’t expect that from the Texans this Sunday, but we do expect them to come out hot following such a rough showing last weekend against the Vikings. We noted the aspects that Jacksonville needs to focus on to stay positive, but they were reaches to say the least, and we simply haven't seen a motivated team come onto the field from Doug Pederson’s guys.
Look for Houston QB C.J. Stroud to exploit a terrible Jacksonville secondary and help the best bet from our Jaguars vs. Texans predictions of Houston -4 in the first half (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook) hit!
Jaguars vs. Texans Injury Report & Latest News
We’d love to see Houston RB Joe Mixon back on the field to help with our Jaguars vs. Texans predictions, and you can see the injury report for both teams following Thursday’s practices:
JAX Jaguars:
- RB Tank Bigsby - LP
- WR Gabe Davis - LP
- OL Cam Robinson - LP
- OL Anton Harrison - LP
- CB Jarrian Jones - LP
- CB Montaric Brown - LP
- S Darnell Savage Jr. - LP
- TE Evan Engram - DNP
- LB Foyesade Oluokun - DNP
- LB Devin Lloyd - DNP
HOU Texans:
- WR Nico Collins - LP
- DT Folorunso Fatukasi - LP
- RB Joe Mixon - DNP
- RB Dameon Pierce - DNP
- WR Tank Dell - DNP
- S Jimmie Ward - DNP
How To Bet On Jaguars vs. Texans at Caesars Sportsbook & Claim Your $1,000 Bonus With Promo Code VAULT5100
Before even diving into our Jaguars vs. Texans predictions, we mentioned a generous $1,000 Caesars sign up bonus, and here’s how to grab yours:
- Sign up here for a new Caesars account
- Enter the Caesars promo code VAULT5100
- Make an initial deposit of $10 or more
- Wager $10+ and up to $1,000 on anything
- Receive a full refund as a bonus bet if it loses
In other words, your first bet will be fully protected, and it doesn’t even have to be on the best bet from our Jaguars vs. Texans picks! Target anything you’d like, but get the process started by joining here with the Caesars promo code VAULT5100!
Player News
Vikings released QB Brett Rypien.
That means the Vikings are moving forward with J.J. McCarthy, recent signee Carson Wentz, and undrafted free agent rookie Max Brosmer for the 2025 season. Rypien remains highly regarded for his veteran status, something that could lead to another opportunity elsewhere in short order.
Browns HC Kevin Stefanski said he expects QB Kenny Pickett to be ready for Week 1.
Stefanski also added that he is still working through who will back up Joe Flacco to start the season, potentially opening the door for one of the rookies to serve as the team’s top backup for Week 1. Pickett was originally in the running for the starting role for the Browns but an ill timed hamstring injury derailed those plans.
Cowboys activated CB Trevon Diggs from the Physically Unable to Perform List.
Diggs gets added to the active roster ahead of the start of the regular season, making good on the team’s promises that he would be ready to go for Week 1. He should immediately reenter the starting lineup opposite DaRon Bland for a Cowboys secondary that was devastated by injuries a season ago.
Jets traded DT Derrick Nnadi to the Chiefs for a swap in conditional seventh-round and sixth-round picks.
Nnadi played the first seven seasons of his professional career with the Chiefs before signing with the Jets this offseason. He returns to the Chiefs for conditional pick swaps after playing a reserve role during the 2024 regular season, something we should expect in 2025.
Raiders QB Aidan O’Connell (wrist) will miss 6-8 weeks with a fractured wrist.
O’Connell suffered the fractured wrist in the team’s final preseason game and is set to miss six to eight weeks, potentially setting up an injured reserve stint to start the regular season. Sixth-round rookie Cam Miller is the only other quarterback currently on the roster, meaning we could see the Raiders exploring the waiver wire or potential trades to satisfy their need for a backup quarterback.
49ers HC Kyle Shanahan said he expects WR Jauan Jennings to be ready for Week 1.
Speaking to media Sunday, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said he expects wide receiver Jauan Jennings to be ready for Week 1. When asked about his wide receiver’s availability, Shanahan said, “I expect him to be back, I think he should be back from it, but you never know with calves. I’m not a doctor, so like I said, calves take time. You never know with calves.” It seems Shanahan is expecting Jennings for Week 1 but also wasn’t exactly speaking with a great deal of certainty, giving himself outs to the statement. The 49ers surely want Jennings out there against the Seahawks considering the multitude of injuries up and down their roster, potentially setting up a highly concentrated attack amongst Christian McCaffrey, Ricky Pearsall, and George Kittle to start the year.