Identifying breakout QBs is one of my favorite articles to write about each season.

As the resident “QB Coach” at Fantasy Alarm, this feature allows me to dig deep, plant some flags and explain to you why you should or shouldn’t target certain players at the QB position when it comes to your fantasy football drafts.

 

 

 

2024 Breakout Fantasy Football Players: Quarterbacks

What is unique about the QB position is that, unlike the other positions in fantasy football, sometimes you don’t actually have to be a good real-life quarterback to be a good fantasy football QB. I also think it’s important to know that my approach to this article of breakout fantasy players isn't necessarily to find the hidden gem and unearth them for you. 

Instead, I want to take a look at current fantasy ADP and positional ADP and break down why I think these QBs have the ability to “break out” and exceed where their current projections have them going in fantasy football drafts.

Fantasy Football Breakout QB 2024: Can They Run?

When looking for breakout quarterbacks in 2024, the first thing I ask myself is “can they run?” If the QB in question has an ounce of rushing upside, then his fantasy ceiling goes through the roof. Last season, when looking at fantasy points per game, the top three quarterbacks were Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson. It should be no shock that those three QBs were also the top three rushing QBs in the NFL with Jackson rushing for over 800-yards while Allen and Hurts both ran for 15 touchdowns each. 

When I mentioned above that being a good fantasy QB has nothing to do with being a good real-life quarterback, my reasoning for that is due to the fact that Justin Fields was a QB1 last season in fantasy points per game. Fields ran for 657 yards and four touchdowns while throwing for just 2,562 yards with 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Fields was NOT a good real-life QB, but he ranked 12th in fantasy points per game.

Anthony Richardson was only able to play two full games during his rookie season and in those two full games he finished as QB2 and QB4 in fantasy points. His elite mobility would have likely put him in the conversation to finish as a top five overall quarterback in points per game last season if he was able to stay healthy.

So, that was last season, but what about this season? My favorite of all breakout fantasy football players at the QB position this season is Kyler Murray. Yes, I realize he technically has already “broken out” when he finished as QB2 in fantasy football back in 2020, but as of writing, we see Murray currently coming off the board as QB10 with a 6th round ADP.

I’m setting Murray’s rushing yards floor at 500 yards and I honestly think I’m being conservative given the fact that he rushed for 819 yards during that QB2 season. Last year, in just eight games, he ran for 244 yards and in 2022 he rushed for 418 yards in just 11 games. Health will be important for Kyler Murray but this Cardinals offense is sneaky loaded with Trey McBride at tight end and Marvin Harrison entering the fold. 

The Cardinals also brought in Zay Jones and still have Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch as pass-catching options as well. I have Murray ranked in my top five this season which means he is a fantasy breakout candidate for me this year.

If you want to look at some other mobile quarterbacks, we have to look no further than the incoming class of fantasy football rookies. Top overall pick Caleb Williams and number two overall pick Jayden Daniels both have rushing upside, with Daniels more of the true mobile QB while Williams has the ability to run, much like we see out of Patrick Mahomes. 

That rushing upside for Daniels over Williams is reflected in ADP as Daniels is coming off the board as QB14 while Williams is coming off the board as QB16 despite the fact that the Bears offense is far superior when it comes to receiving weapons than the Commanders.

If you look around the industry, you will see that Daniels is projected to be among the leaders in rushing yards for the position and, if he ends up meeting those projections, it wouldn’t take much when it comes to him throwing the football for Daniels to finish among the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks in points per game, much like we saw out of Daniel Jones back in 2023 when he was a top 10 QB in points per game despite the dismal passing stats.

Speaking of Daniel Jones – we are only two seasons removed from when he shocked the fantasy world with a top 10 point per game finish thanks to his 708 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns. His 2023 season was cut short due to injury, and it was an ugly season, but he did have 206 rushing yards at the time of his injury.

We now have a Giants roster in 2024 that no longer has Saquon Barkley and the team went and used the sixth overall pick on wide receiver Malik Nabers. This Giants offense is going to give Daniel Jones all the opportunity in the world to be this team’s quarterback given the money they are paying him, and without the need to feed Barkley, more will be put on the arm and legs of Jones.

Could we see 500+ rushing yards from Jones this year if he is able to stay healthy and hold down the job? My answer is yes, and if he ends up playing all 17 games this season, my assumption is that his passing numbers won’t be all that awful now that he finally has a legit top receiving target. Jones is coming off the board as QB26, so you don’t need to invest in him at all in standard league formats.

Fantasy Football Breakout QB 2024: Can They Throw Touchdowns?

This title may seem a bit odd but you will understand where I’m going here when it is all said and done. For this section, I’m looking at QBs who I think could exceed ADP if they were to throw more touchdowns and while that may seem like an obvious statement, not every quarterback has the same opportunities to increase their touchdown production.

My poster boy for this section is Tua Tagovailoa. Again, I realize that he has technically already broken out seeing as he led the NFL in passing yards last season, but despite all those passing yards, Tua only finished as QB19 in fantasy points per game. He is currently being drafted as QB13 off the board, but where would he be if he just threw more touchdown passes last season?

The Dolphins last season led the NFL in total yards per game at 401.3 and were second in points per game at 29.2 points per game. When it came to rushing touchdowns, the Dolphins were tied for the league lead with 27 rushing scores while Tua was actually tied for fifth in passing touchdowns with 29. So, with Tua, we have the league's leading passer, on the league's second best scoring offense. What if, instead of 27 rushing touchdowns, a few more of those found their way over to the passing touchdown column? 

We saw Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, Brock Purdy and Kirk Cousins last season with fantasy point per game averages that would put them inside the top 10. With the exception of Cousins, who suffered a season-ending injury, these QBs all threw for over 4,000 yards and finished with 30+ passing touchdowns. Over the last two years, Tua’s per-17 game averages have him throwing 4,600+ yards. All he is missing is the passing touchdowns, and if the Dolphins offense turns a handful of those short-yard TD runs into passing touchdowns, then Tua could really have that “break out” season.

Another QB that I think falls into this category is Kirk Cousins. Yes, I understand that age and injury concern has a lot to do with his current ADP which sees him coming off the board as QB18, but Cousins is not a mobile quarterback and all reports out of Falcons camp is that he is good to go for the start of training camp. If the team isn’t concerned about his Achilles then who am I to be concerned about his Achilles? 

As I mentioned, Cousins was QB7 in fantasy points per game before getting injured last season and in the two seasons before that he finished the year as a QB7 in points per game. So, why the disrespect? Since 2020, his first season with Justin Jefferson, Cousins per 17 game stats saw him average 4,582 yards and 34 touchdowns per season.

We now see him in Atlanta, with Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson and Darnell Mooney at his disposal on offense. I just find it difficult to imagine, injury concerns aside, that Cousins won’t be asked to just drop back and sling it to these elite receiving weapons that were so misused over the past few years under the old Falcons regime.

Other quarterbacks that I have on my radar as those who could see a jump in fantasy production if a few more passes were to come down in the end zone would be Baker Mayfield, who has touchdown-machine Mike Evans practically locked in for 10+ touchdowns and a new-look offense that is looking to move the ball down field this season. 

I also think we could see Geno Smith take a step back to what he was in 2022 instead of what he showed in 2023. The Seahawks offense with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba certainly provide plenty of firepower for Smith to improve up the 20 passing touchdowns he finished with last year.

Fantasy Football Breakout QB 2024: Just Maybe Will Levis?

I’m just going to dedicate this second to Tennessee Titans QB Will Levis. In his rookie debut, we saw Levis throw four passing touchdowns against the Atlanta Falcons. 

Things mostly went downhill from there for Levis but this offseason we saw the Titans completely overhaul not only their coaching staff but also their offense. Gone is Derrick Henry and instead we see Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd and Tony Pollard join DeAndre Hopkins and Chigoziem Okonkwo. 

A receiving trio of Ridley, Hopkins and Boyd will provide plenty of support for Levis and his cannon right arm. Both running backs, Tony Pollard and Tajae Spears, are also capable of making plays in the passing attack. If you wanted to take a stab at a breakout fantasy QB, just maybe that man is going to be Will Levis.

2024 Fantasy Football: Related Draft Guide Articles

Take a gander at our additional fantasy football draft guide articles for 2024 to find even more helpful tips and advice as you prepare for the upcoming season: