Happy Tuesday, April 15th, we have the NBA Play-In tournament kicking off with the 7 vs. 8 seeds in both the Eastern and Western conferences. The winners become the seven-seed in the postseason and the loser will have one more chance to hang onto the eight seed.

The stars are out as Stephen Curry, Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Ja Morant, and Jaren Jackson are taking the floor in their most meaningful game of the year.

 

 

 

Before actually diving into the meat and potatoes, welcome to the NBA DFS season. If this is your first time reading our column on NBA DFS picks, I just want to welcome you and give you a few tips and tricks on what you should be looking for each night.

  • News outlets: reliable sources that give us injury news & starting lineups
  • Pace of play: who's playing fast vs. who's playing slow. Which teams get a pace-up spot (more possessions) vs. pace-down (fewer possessions)
  • Usage rates: is a percentage of how many plays that player is being used in
  • NBA DFS Projections
  • Lineup Generator
  • NBA Ownership
 

 

Pre/Post-Lock Update

This section will be used for anything that changes from the morning until right up to roster lock. 

Injury updates, players we’re higher on than we were in the morning and so much more.

All status updates after contest roster lock will be made in the Fantasy Alarm Discord: https://discord.gg/2yATJxXe8G

 

NBA Injuries, News & Updates Today, 4/15

 

 

NBA DFS Slate & Game Overviews

In the section below, I’m listing the most notable things we need to look at in Las Vegas, including notable O/U and spreads. Not every game is listed, but every game listed has the pace and defensive numbers listed.

Atlanta Hawks vs. Orlando Magic

  • Total: 216.5
  • Spread: ORL -5

Hawks NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Post All-Star Break): 21st
  • Pace (Post All-Star Break): 6th

The Hawks have the lowest implied team total of the slate and is in a massive pace down spot against the third ranked defense in the league. With a shortened rotation in the playoffs, we should see Trae Young approach 40 minutes and with all the guys out or traded, Young has a 31.3% USG and 1.38 FP/min, which both led the team this year.

Dyson Daniels is a really safe option with a ceiling if his shot is falling. Caris LeVert is one of three guys that could play off the bench and get extended and if that's the case, $4.8K is too cheap. It could be LeVert, but it also could be Terance Mann for his defense and Mann is REALLY cheap.

The Hawks could potentially start Mouhamed Gueye, but he won't play enough minutes to factor into our DFS lineups and would rather take a shot on a near min-salary Georges Niang. Zaccharie Risacher is a wild card because his ceiling is massive when his shot is falling but he's also consistently a guy that's replaced in their lineup.

It's possible Onyeka Okongwu is my favorite center option on the board at 7.5K because without Clint Capela, the Hawks have chosen to give him as many minutes as he can possibly handle.

Magic NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Post All-Star Break): 3rd
  • Pace (Post All-Star Break): 29th

Could the Hawks and Magic game that was played on April 8th be somewhat of a preview of what's to come tonight, because the Magic's rotation is quite interesting. They continue to start Cory Joseph and with that iteration of their starting lineup, the Magic are 11-5. He played 26 minutes in their meeting with the Hawks while Cole Anthony was iced and Anthony Black played 21 minutes. I think Black could outperform Joseph, but Joseph is so cheap if you need a punt, he could be in your play.

I think it's possible that Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is one of the better value plays of the day here. After months of missed shots, KCP is making shots at an elite clip, which is what the Magic were hoping they'd have from the start of the year. He shot 45% from three in March and 52% in April too. His three-and-D approach that could get upwards of 40 minutes is intriguing at sub-4K.

What we can guarantee is Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner playing 40 minutes. Banchero has been incredibly elite since the All-Star break posting a 34.8% USG and 1.35 DKP/min. Wagner's not far behind in the USG (29.7%) and just a tick under 1.2 FP/min. I prefer Banchero to Wagner, for what it's worth. 

This is not a center room that features much other than Wendell Carter Could they use Jonathan Isaac and Goga Bitadze a bit more? Possibly. But that outcome seems unlikely. Carter Jr. is a solid option at his price point, especially if he's playing 30-plus minutes.

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors

  • Total: 229
  • Spread: GSW -7

Grizzlies NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Post All-Star Break): 18th
  • Pace (Post All-Star Break): 3rd

The Grizzlies have been on a wild rollercoaster ride this year and come into this game without their best perimeter defender in Jaylen Wells to stop Stephen Curry. That being said, we've seen Ja Morant's minutes are trending upwards near the end of the year and the pick-and-roll spams have been good for him. Scottie Pippen Jr.'s minutes have been very solid since the coaching change and since Jaylen Wells went down. He played 32 and 31 minutes in a must-win setting in his final two games of the year. 

Desmond Bane has a very solid ceiling, fairly safe floor under-8K. I'm perfectly fine if you land on Bane. Vince Williams probably starts here, but not sure he's going to play too many minutes. I'd rather take shots on the aforementioned Pippen or Santi Aldama who should play mid-to-high 20's minutes.

The production for Jaren Jackson has fallen off the table, but we know his ceiling and the price is too cheap if he can get it going offensively. It's hard to ignore Zach Edey's price lately considering the change in dynamic on this team since their coaching change. He's played 28-plus in six straight and in three of four he's grabbed at least 16 boards and put up 34+ DKP.

Warriors NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Post All-Star Break): 1st
  • Pace (Post All-Star Break): 19th

The Warriors have been one of the worst teams to play in DFS all year long because of their extended rotation. We should take something from their final game of the year against the Clippers because they cut things down to nine guys, including axing Jonathan Kuminga. They need to win this game to avoid potentially playing the Thunder in the first-round of the playoffs, so we should see nine guys again here.

Stephen Curry is going to play a boatload of minutes and is in a pace up spot. Hard to not love him here. With all the guys that have been dealt for GSW, Curry would have a 31.6% USG and averages 1.44 FP/min. We saw Brandin Podziemski play 38 regulation minutes in his final game and six of seven games he's topped 30 minutes. Over that span he's topped 28+ DKP in six and 34+ in five.

One of Moses Moody and Gary Payton will be extended here and could be really good. Payton's been a 1.02 FP/min since they dealt all those that they did. Moody will start and still likely plays more minutes, but isn't as good a FP/min producer.

Before mentioning players we want to use, don't play Jonathan Kuminga. He was axed from their rotation in the final game. I would, however, play Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler. Both solid options. I prefer Butler because his scoring ceiling is what it is, but Green's obviously easier to get to.

NBA DFS Core Player Pool & Lineup Picks

Here are the core players I’m looking at for my NBA DFS picks tonight. You can see the full analysis of tonight’s NBA DFS projections and player pool below or skip ahead to building the best lineups possible by locking these into the aforementioned lineup generator now.

High

Mid

Value