NBA Daily Fantasy Picks & Playbook: January 18
Published: Jan 18, 2024
We have a five-game NBA DFS main slate on Thursday, January 18th, on DraftKings and FanDuel with three teams on back-to-backs as the Toronto Raptors, New York Knicks, and Minnesota Timberwolves all played yesterday. We have the stars out tonight as Domantas Sabonis, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lauri Markkanen, and Jalen Brunson taking the floor. Two games of the five have implied totals of over 240 points, so there should be a LOT of points scored tonight.
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Notable NBA Injury Updates
QUESTIONABLE
- Tyrese Haliburton – OUT
- Bennedict Mathurin – IN
- Obi Toppin – IN
- Aaron Nesmith – OUT
- Ayo Dosunmu – IN
- Patrick Williams – IN
- Luguentz Dort – OUT
- Bruce Brown – IN
- Andrew Nembhard – mid-day downgrade – OUT
OUT
PROBABLE
- Andre Drummond – IN
Back-to-Backs
Pace Up Spots (Last 15 Games)
Pace definition: Pace is the total number of possessions a team uses in a game.
*key* Green is elite pace of play, Blue is decent pace of play, & Red is slow pace of play.
Green = Fast Paced team
Blue = Neutral Paced team
Red = Slow Paced team
- Thunder: 10th @ Jazz: 4th
- Wizards: 5th @ Knicks: 19th
- Pacers: 8th @ Kings: 17th
- Bulls: 27th @ Raptors: 12th
Defensive Ratings (Last 15 Games)
- Washington Wizards: 26th
- Toronto Raptors: 25th
- Sacramento Kings: 20th
- Indiana Pacers: 17th
- Oklahoma City Thunder: 14th
- Memphis Grizzlies: 11th
- Utah Jazz: 10th
- Chicago Bulls: 6th
- Minnesota Timberwolves: 5th
- New York Knicks: 1st
NBA Game Totals
- Indiana Pacers @ Sacramento Kings - 248.5 (SAC -8.5)
- Oklahoma City Thunder @ Utah Jazz - 244.5 (OKC -3.5)
- Washington Wizards @ New York Knicks - 235.5 (NYK -11.5)
- Chicago Bulls @ Toronto Raptors - 227.5 (CHI -2.5)
Top Tier Core Plays
Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento Kings
Sabonis has triple-doubled in back-to-back games and has five triple-doubles in eight games. Indiana is 2nd overall in pace and 27th in DRtg. Indiana has struggled defending centers this year and I love Sabonis as my top spend tonight.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
SGA has struggled over his last two games but we haven’t seen him put three bad games together consecutively. Utah has been good defensively lately, but they haven’t defended the point-guard position well this season. They allowed SGA to score 30 actual across just 28 minutes. This is a nice little pace-up spot, too, between two top-10 paced teams.
De'Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings
After a tough stretch, De’Aaron Fox looks all the way back coming off 32 and 33 actual points. He’s put up 47+ DKP in each game and his price has dipped into the low-9’s, so there is still upside at it. Fox gets a nice pace up spot against a bottom-five defense.
Mid-Tier Core Plays
Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
There are only two players, since January started, that averages more potential assists per game than Brunson’s 15.3 and he’s had 7+ in six of seven games this month. This is as good of a match-up as it gets, we just need the Wizards to keep this game somewhat competitive and we’ll get full run from Brunson.
Boy, Markkanen has been so freakin’ good lately. He’s put up 50+ DKP in back-to-back games and has 48+ DKP in five of six overall. Since 12/14, when Utah changed their starting lineup, Markkanen has averaged a team-leading 1.29 FP/min and has a 25.6% USG.
Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors
I reallllllly like Scottie Barnes’ price going down to 8.1K on DraftKings. Without Siakam, Onunoby, and Poeltl this year, Barnes has a 25.7% USG and averages 1.23 FP/min, and is a guy who has consistently shown a massive ceiling at this price.
Someone on the Bulls is going to have a good game tonight. Since the start of January, the Raptors are bottom-10 defensively and top-10 in pace. Figuring out which is the hardest part. Zach LaVine is a great price but has back-to-back games of sub-30 DKP. Also has a 60 DKP ceiling over his last four games. I love DeMar DeRozan, and that’s probably the direction I’d go. Toronto’s struggled to defend forwards and has allowed a LOT of FP to that position. Obviously, with Jontay Porter and Thaddeus Young operating as the team’s centers, Nikola Vucevic is appealing too. Shout out to Coby White because if his shot falls, he also has a ceiling.
Would rank: DeMar DeRozan - Nikola Vucevic - Zach LaVine - Coby White
Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder
What can’t Jalen Williams do? He’s had back-to-back 25+ point games and 35+ DKP in seven of eight. Over that span (dating back to 1/3) Williams has averaged 1.25 FP/min and has a 23% USG, which are both up from his season averages. This is an elite game environment and Williams should continue to dominate while SGA and Holmgren get all the defense's attention.
Barrett continues to be flat-out great on this Raptors team. He scored another 26 points and 41 DKP last night and has scored 23+ points and 36+ DKP in five of his last six games. Barrett has a 26.5% USG and 1.19 FP/min without Siakam and Poeltl this year.
The last time out was not Malik Monk’s best outing considering he was 5-for-16 from the floor but he’s so good peripherally (3 REB, 8 AST, 1 STL) he can still make up for that (29.25 DKP) and has a decent night. When the shot is falling, he has a massive ceiling. He has 35+ DKP in three of five games and has a 62 DKP ceiling this year. He has a big ceiling in this spot in a game with nearly 250 total.
Since December 13th, the first game Sexton entered the starting lineup, he’s averaged 1.28 FP/min along with a 29.1% USG rate. Utah has been involved in a ton of blowouts lately and despite that, he’s averaged 35.8 DKP/game in 22.2 minutes over his last five. In competitive games, Sexton will get an additional 4-10 extra minutes.
Value Tier Core Plays
Luke Kennard, Memphis Grizzlies
Without Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Derrick Rose, Kennard is starting at point guard right now for Memphis. Kennard’s played 29+ minutes in three straight and 30+ in back-to-back. Kennard’s put up 20+ DKP in four straight games and if his three ball is falling, he has 30+ FP upside.
George has looked comfortable coming off the Jazz bench with each passing game posting a 22% USG or better in three straight games including 19+ points in two straight. I like the sub-5K price tag and he’s shown he has high-20’s minutes upside.
Gary Trent Jr., Toronto Raptors
No surprise to see Trent Jr. check in as one of the highest-rostered plays of the slate after he drew a start yesterday and scored 28 points. With the Raptors trading away Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby, along with Jakob Poeltl being off the floor, Trent has a 21% USG rate. There’s no reason to think he won’t start here again and if he makes shots at the rate he did on Wednesday he’ll be hard to avoid.
Marvin Bagley III / Patrick Baldwin Jr., Washington Wizards
With Daniel Gafford out, Mike Muscala traded, and Marvin Bagley not listed on the injury report, the Wizards center room is Bagley and Baldwin Jr. If you look at how the Wizards have operated lately, they’ve used Baldwin as the backup center and if the Wizards are hesitant to throw Bagley out there for monster minutes tonight, they could turn to Baldwin. Bagley is super chalk and I understand it but Baldwin is an interesting GPP pivot in large-field tournaments.
Jackson’s one of the slate’s more polarizing players. He didn’t start the last game with JJJ and Santi Aldama back and was the THIRD player off the bench, but he played 29 minutes including the final 16 minutes of the game. He’s been incredibly efficient scoring the basketball shooting 64% or better in each of the last two games. Jackson played over Ziaire Williams in the 4th, which could flip if the shots not fall. Keep that in mind.
Late-News Core Play Section
*Section for players we are considering “core plays” based on late-breaking news & research
- Thaddeus Young, Toronto Raptors
- T.J. McConnell, Indiana Pacers
- Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers (GPPs)
- Buddy Hield, Indiana Pacers (GPPs)
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Player Pool
| $ Tier | PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High |  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander  $11,000 |  Anthony Edwards $9,300 |  Lauri Markkanen $9,100 | Julius Randle $9,000 |  Domantas Sabonis $10,300 |
 De'Aaron Fox $9,200 | |||||
| Medium |  Jalen Brunson $8,900 | Malik Monk $6,600 | Jalen Williams $7,800 |  Jaren Jackson $8,300 |  Nikola Vučević $8,000 |
 Immanuel Quickley $7,600 | Zach LaVine $7,500 | Scottie Barnes $8,800 | GG Jackson $6,400 | Rudy Gobert $8,200 | |
| Collin Sexton $6,900 |  Buddy Hield $5,900 | DeMar DeRozan $7,900 | John Collins $6,300 | ||
| RJ Barrett $6,800 | |||||
| Low |  Andrew Nembhard $5,400 | Bennedict Mathurin $5,500 |  Patrick Baldwin $3,700 | Jalen Smith $5,000 | |
| Luke Kennard $4,800 | Marvin Bagley $5,000 | ||||
 Gary Trent $4,700 |
Player News
Kristaps Porzingis (illness) said after Wednesday’s Game 2 loss to the Knicks that his current stamina issues may be related to the problem that sidelined him for eight games late in the regular season.
After an illness limited him to 13 first-half minutes in Boston’s series-opening defeat on Monday, Porzingis came off the bench in Game 2. Unfortunately, he could only give the Celtics 14 minutes. Following the game, Porzingis said his current problem may be related to the upper respiratory ailment that sidelined him for eight games late in the regular season. “Probably, probably,” Porzingis said. “I’ve had like ups and downs throughout until this point. Just now, had a big crash. Now, my energy, my everything, hasn’t been good, but who cares? Have to move forward and it will get better from this point.” While Boston’s shot selection was the focus following its two home defeats, Porzingis’ limited availability has also been a factor. He’ll hope to return to full health in time for Game 3 on Saturday afternoon.
Nikola Jokic finished with 17 points (6-of-16 FGs), eight rebounds, six assists, one steal, one block, two three-pointers and six turnovers in Game 2 against the Thunder on Wednesday.
This was Jokic’s worst performance of the postseason, and it came to an end in the third quarter. He fouled out with 1:17 left in the third, which brought his night to a close after he played 32 minutes. OKC was up 41 points when Jokic fouled out, so his night may have been close to over anyway. Jokic dominated Game 1, and the Thunder adjusted. Denver will need other players to step up if they want to have a chance of winning this series, but Jokic will also need to be better than he was in this game.
Michael Porter Jr. struggled on Wednesday and finished with just eight points (2-of-10 FGs), five rebounds, one steal and two three-pointers in Game 2 against the Thunder.
MPJ was slightly better in the second half, as all eight of his points came in the third quarter. However, the game was already out of hand at that point after a terrible first half for both Porter Jr. and the Nuggets. MPJ shot 1-of-8 in Game 1, and they’ll need him to be much better moving forward. The series will now shift back to Denver, and MPJ will look to get back on track during the two home games before the series heads back to Oklahoma City.
Russell Westbrook provided a boost off the bench with 19 points (5-of-11 FGs, 8-of-10 FTs), one rebound, five assists and one three-pointer in a 149-106 loss to the Thunder in Game 2 on Wednesday.
Despite an ugly first half for Denver, Westbrook was productive and entered the break with 15 points. He didn’t add much in the second half, though he sat the entire fourth quarter, still it was enough to lead the Nuggets in scoring. Russ has been awesome over Denver’s last five games, and his continued success will be key to the Nuggets winning this series. Though this game was ugly, they still have homecourt advantage in this series. They’ll look to keep it in Game 3 on Friday.
Chet Holmgren recorded a double-double on Wednesday with 15 points (3-of-8 FGs, 7-of-7 FTs), 11 rebounds, two assists, two steals, two blocks and two three-pointers in Game 2 against the Nuggets.
After struggling in Game 1, Holmgren bounced back and recorded the fourth postseason triple-double of his career, with three of those coming this season. Aside from Game 3 against Memphis, Holmgren has swatted at least two shots in every game during these playoffs, which was a trend that continued in this game despite him only playing 26 minutes. Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein (14/8/5/1/1) will look to continue to limit Nikola Jokic (17 points) in Game 3 on Friday.
Jalen Williams bounced back on Wednesday with 17 points (6-of-11 FGs), four rebounds, seven assists and two blocks in Game 2 against the Nuggets.
Williams was criticized for his poor performance in the Thunder’s Game 1 loss, but he responded well in OKC’s blowout victory. He was on pace for a bigger night, but he only played 26 minutes and sat the entire fourth quarter due to the lopsided score. He shot the ball much better after shooting 5-of-20 in Game 1, and he’ll need that success to carry over into Game 3 in Denver on Friday.