MLB Streaks and Trends, Risers and Fallers Week 17: Mitch Keller's Struggles Continue Leading Up To MLB Trade Deadline
From today until the end of the Major League Baseball season, Saturday is for looking at the various streaks and trends across the MLB, as well as those fantasy baseball players with rising or falling stock. Who should be your priority waiver wire pickups? Who deserves some of your precious FAAB? Are there any potential fantasy baseball buy low trade candidates? As always, we’ll start by talking about some fantasy baseball risers and fallers, highlighted by Alex Kiriloff and Carlos Santana. The latter was sent to the Brewers at the MLB Trade Deadline, and he gets slight upgrades to his supporting cast and home park. On the other hand, Daulton Varsho and Mitch Keller are trending in the wrong direction. Lastly, we see Mickey Moniak, Nathaniel Lowe, and Michael Harris as the only players with an active hit streak at ten or more games. Let’s take a look at some of the notable hit streaks and current trends across Major League Baseball, as well as fantasy baseball risers and fallers.
| AVG | OBP | SLG | ||||||
| 1 | Luis Arraez | .380 | 1 | Luis Arraez | .428 | 1 | Shohei Ohtani | .681 |
| 2 | Freddie Freeman | .329 | 2 | Juan Soto | .420 | 2 | Freddie Freeman | .580 |
| T2 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | .329 | 3 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | .412 | 3 | Matt Olson | .573 |
| 4 | Bo Bichette | .317 | 4 | Freddie Freeman | .411 | 4 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | .569 |
| 5 | Yandy Diaz | .315 | 5 | LaMonte Wade Jr. Jr. | .399 | 5 | J.D. Martinez | .567 |
| xBA | xwOBA | Hard Hit% | ||||||
| 1 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | .346 | 1 | Aaron Judge | .480 | 1 | Aaron Judge | 62.9% |
| 2 | Corey Seager | .333 | 2 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | .452 | 2 | Matt Chapman | 59.5% |
| 3 | Freddie Freeman | .325 | 3 | Corey Seager | .442 | 3 | Juan Soto | 58.2% |
| 4 | Luis Arraez | .324 | 4 | Shohei Ohtani | .437 | 4 | Corey Seager | 57.7% |
| 5 | Bo Bichette | .321 | 5 | Yordan Alvarez | .421 | 5 | Matt Olson | 57.5% |
| Hit Streaks | |||||||||
| Streak | Player | AB | R | Hits | HR | RBI | BB | K | AVG/OBP/SLG |
| 18 | Mickey Moniak | 76 | 11 | 28 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 24 | .368/.400/.553 |
| 11 | Nathaniel Lowe | 37 | 10 | 15 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 11 | .405/.532/.649 |
| 10 | Michael Harris II | 34 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | .382/.417/.559 |
| 9 | Jon Berti | 27 | 8 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | .556/.586/.741 |
| 8 | Eloy Jimenez | 32 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 3 | .406/.441/.594 |
| 8 | Ryan Jeffers | 27 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 8 | .407/.515/.519 |
| 8 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 31 | 6 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 7 | .355/.394/.806 |
Fantasy Baseball Risers
Alex Kiriloff, Minnesota Twins
Kiriloff’s nagging wrist injury must be behind him, as we have seen a very, very good version of him this season. Through 68 games, he’s slashing .271/.360/.448 with eight home runs, 13 doubles, 23 runs scored, and 32 RBI. His expected statistics aren’t far off from his actual stats, and his 7.1 percent barrel rate will play. Since the All-Star break, Kiriloff is slashing .265/.315/.633 with four home runs, four doubles, seven runs scored, and 14 RBI, primarily serving as the three-hole hitter for the Twins. I’d love for him to cut the strikeout rate down a bit, but he’s been very good of late, and don’t overlook his .367 ISO during this little run. The Twins offense can go radio silent at times, but Kiriloff is a reliable play against right-handed pitching (.439 SLG).
Carlos Santana, Milwaukee Brewers
I wrote about it over in the Trade Deadline Tracker we have up on the site, but Santana gets a slight bump to his overall fantasy value. Over his last nine games, he’s slashing .281/.378/.656 with three home runs, three doubles, and eight RBI. The veteran slugger owns a .190 OPS against righties this season, and now heads to Milwaukee, which generally plays up left-handed power. Santana has an 11.5 percent barrel rate and 57.7 percent hard hit rate over his last nine games.
Honorable Mention: Lars Nootbaar, Tristan Casas, Oscar Colas, Riley Greene, Gregory Santos, Jason Foley, Adam Ottavino
Fantasy Baseball Fallers
Daulton Varsho, Toronto Blue Jays
Okay, Varsho still has to be rostered in basically all formats, because he has catcher eligibility with double-digit home runs and stolen bases. However, this hasn’t been a great year for him. Despite similar peripherals and expected statistics, or even slightly improved, the quality of contact is down. With Arizona last season, Varsho posted a .282 average, .890 SLG, and 45.8 percent hard hit rate on fly balls. This year in Toronto, he has a .114 average, .421 SLG, and 25.9 percent hard hit rate. Since the All-Star break, he’s hitting just .189 with a 39 percent strikeout rate and 32 wRC+. You can’t really drop him, unless you have a better option behind the dish, but this hasn’t been the best first year in Toronto for the 27-year-old outfielder. Oh, he also hasn’t appeared behind the dish yet this season, so when he loses that catcher eligibility next year, he won’t be going as early in drafts.
Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates
All in all, Keller has been great this season, and he’s finally showcased that frontline starter potential we’ve thought he possessed. However, he’s been sliding, and it’s been happening for a while now. After posting a 2.44 ERA and 2.67 FIP through his first 10 starts of the season, he sits at a 5.32 ERA and 4.83 FIP over his last 12 starts. Furthermore, here in July, he’s down below one strikeout per inning, with an ERA of 6.28 and 5.93 FIP, not to mention a 2.20 HR/9. Keller’s past struggles against left-handed hitters has started to rear its ugly head, as lefties have a .329 average, .711 SLG, and .450 wOBA against Keller here in July.
Honorable Mention: Mike Ford, Jared Triolo, Kendall Graveman, Brayan Bello, Andrew Heaney, A.J. Puk
Statistical Credits:
baseballsavant.mlb.com
fangraphs.com
baseballmusings.com
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