MLB DFS Playbook July 9: Top Plays for DraftKings and FanDuel
Published: Jul 09, 2023
Sunday's MLB DFS main slate will be the final slate before the MLB All-Star break which begins Monday. With the break upcoming we will need to pay attention to the MLB lineups today as we could see managers giving their star players and early start to their vacation, especially those players who may be participating in the All-Star Game festivities .Be sure to check in with our MLB DFS Tools, with the daily MLB projections, MLB DFS rostership projections, and our MLB DFS Lineup Generator when building those lineups today to help you decide which players you should be targeting!
MLB DFS Playbook: July 9
MLB Weather Updates
Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees
We got rain in New York on Sunday which could very easily cause a delayed start if not a straight postponement. Those looking to have exposure to this game will need to monitor the updates closely as we approach roster lock.
DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts
The lineup construction doesn't really change from slate to slate for me. Find the weak pitching matchup and stack against. In large field GPPs you will likely want to find a contrarian stack pairing to give yourself a shot at separating from the pack but overall we are looking for hitters in high scoring games, great split matchups and favorable hitting environments. For pitching, it's more of the same, find starters who are favorites to get the win in matchups where they aren't expected to give up too many runs. Use the sportsbooks to your advantage here to identify the best matchups.
Recommended DFS Starting Pitchers
Top Options for Strikeouts
- Aaron Nola vs Miami Marlins
- Jesus Luzardo vs Philadelphia Phillies
- Joe Ryan vs Baltimore Orioles
- Shane Bieber vs Kansas City Royals
Best Odds for a Win
- Logan Gilbert +130 vs Houston Astros
- Zach Eflin +145 vs Atlanta Braves
- Shane Bieber +150 vs Kansas City Royals
- See More
Favorite Starters to Use for DFS Lineups
Shane Bieber, SP Cleveland Guardians
I mean, he's on the cover of the playbook today so of course he is going to be in the favorite staters section. Listen, has this been the vintage elite Bieber we've seen in years past? No, not really. The strikeout numbers are way down on the year and he's allowed four or more runs in three of his last four starts. The one start where he didn't allow more than four runs was a six inning shutout against the Royals whom he takes the mound against today. Bieber also had eight strikeouts in that game against Kansas City which is something I hope to see again from Bieber in this matchup today.
Aaron Nola, SP Philadelphia Phillies
Let's see if we can solve the Aaron Nola puzzle this afternoon because he has had two great outings and three bad outings over his last five starts, having allowed four or more runs in those three tough outings while allowing just one run over 14 innings while striking out 17 in his two other starts which came against the Tampa Bay Rays and Atlanta Braves. Nola dominating two tough teams, would at least give some optimism that he can do the same against the Marlins team that doesn't hit right-handed pitching too well.
Brandon Bielak, SP Houston Astros
There really isn't a ton of value on today's slate so we look towards the Astros starter for some salary relief. In his most recent outing he tossed seven shutout innings against the Colorado Rockies. Like a true Astro, Bielak has found great success at home this season, posting a 2.73 ERA with 28 strikeouts over 26.1 innings compared to his 4.82 road ERA where he has just 13 strikeouts over 28 innings. With Houston at home and the Mariners owning the fourth highest strikeout rate vs RHP over the last two weeks I say we take a chance.
Recommended DFS Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
- Boston Red Sox vs JP Sears
- Cleveland Guardians vs Ryan Yarbrough
- Minnesota Twins vs Kyle Gibson
- Chicago White Sox vs Steven Matz
- See More
Favorite Hitters to Use for DFS Lineups
Justin Turner, 1B Boston Red Sox
With southpaw JP Sears on the mound this afternoon we look towards the Red Sox offense once again this weekend and notably Justin Turner who is hitting .304 with a .565 slugging percentage and an OPS of .956 against left-handed pitching this season. Turner is also on fire right now, hitting .333 with two home runs and 11 RBI over the past two weeks.
Willy Adames, SS Milwaukee Brewers
With Adames, we have said it all season long, the man loves to hit right-handed pitching and he especially loves to hit him when he is playing at his home ballpark. He checks both of those boxes here this afternoon and he will look to build upon his current run which has seen him hit four home runs over the past four days which included a two home run effort on Saturday. The Reds on Sunday are activating Ben Lively from the injured list and Lively is no stranger to the long ball, having allowed 10 home runs over his nine appearances this season.
Kerry Carpenter, OF Detroit Tigers
I think a sneaky two-man stack on Sunday could very well be Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter as we look for some lefty bats to face off against the Blue Jays Chris Bassitt. On the season lefties are hitting .284 with an OPS of .946 and a slugging percentage of .574. Left-handed bats have also hit 13 of the 17 home runs allowed by Bassitt this season. Greene is expensive on DraftKings but Carpenter is very cheap which makes the pairing doable.
Player Pool
| $ Tier | SP | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High |  Joe Ryan  $10,200 |  Matt Olson $4,400 |  Elly De La Cruz $4,500 |  Luis Robert $4,000 | ||
 Shane Bieber $9,500 | José Ramírez $3,900 | |||||
 Aaron Nola $9,400 | ||||||
| Medium |  Brandon Bielak $8,600 | Spencer Steer $3,600 |  Jonathan India $3,500 |  Jake Burger $3,100 | Matt McLain $3,700 |  Julio Rodríguez $3,600 |
 Justin Turner $3,400 |  Andrés Giménez $3,000 | Trea Turner $3,600 |  Eloy Jiménez $3,300 | |||
 Christian Yelich $3,700 | ||||||
| Low | Andrew Vaughn $3,100 |  Brendan Donovan $2,900 | Zach Remillard $2,600 |  Willy Adames $3,100 | Jordan Walker $3,100 | |
| Alec Bohm $3,100 | Edouard Julien $2,800 | Jarred Kelenic $3,100 | ||||
| Jonathan Aranda $2,000 |  Riley Greene $2,800 | |||||
| Kerry Carpenter $2,700 | ||||||
 Rob Refsnyder $2,700 |
Stacks
| Reds | Spencer Steer | Matt McLain | Elly De La Cruz | Tyler Stephenson |
 DraftKings | 4900 | 5300 | 6100 | 4500 |
| Fanduel | 3600 | 3700 | 4500 | 3100 |
| White Sox | Luis Robert | Andrew Vaughn | Eloy Jiménez | Jake Burger |
| DraftKings | 5700 | 3600 | 4300 | 4100 |
| Fanduel | 4000 | 3100 | 3300 | 3100 |
| Red Sox | Rob Refsnyder | Masataka Yoshida | Justin Turner | Rafael Devers |
| DraftKings | 2600 | 4500 | 4400 | 5300 |
| Fanduel | 2700 | 3200 | 3400 | 3800 |
| Tigers | Kerry Carpenter | Zach McKinstry | Akil Baddoo | Riley Greene |
| DraftKings | 3300 | 3900 | 2600 | 5000 |
| Fanduel | 2700 | 2400 | 2000 | 2800 |
Player News
Jazz Chisholm Jr. made an early exit from Tuesday’s game against the Orioles with a potential injury.
Chisholm was checked on by a training during the middle of his first-inning at-bat for something side-related, but wasn’t lifted from the contest. He was immediately pulled after slicing a double to right field and ending up on third base due to a fielding error on the play. It could wind up being merely a precautionary measure, but we’ll see. There’s a lot going on in New York at the moment. There should be an update on his status shortly.
Luke Raley is undergoing imaging after tweaking something during batting practice.
There should be an update on his status shortly. He hasn’t been scratched from Seattle’s lineup, but that could be coming.
Brandon Woodruff (shoulder) will make another minor league rehab start on Wednesday for High-A Wisconsin.
Woodruff is getting close to making his season debut as he’ll make his fourth rehab start on Wednesday in the lower minors. The 32-year-old former fantasy ace dealt with some general fatigue following his last rehab outing with Triple-A Nashville, so it’ll be interesting to see how his stuff bounces back.
George Kirby (shoulder) faced hitters on Monday in a live batting practice session.
Kirby told reporters Tuesday that he “felt great” afterwards and could potentially progress to a minor league rehab start this weekend. He’s going to require several rehab outings to build up his stamina and pitch count prior to his season debut. The 27-year-old righty is making his way back towards rejoining Seattle’s rotation mix by late May or early June.
Tyler Fitzgerald (chest) is back in the lineup for Tuesday’s game against the Padres.
Fitzgerald is back at the keystone and batting ninth following a two-game absence due to a chest contusion. The versatile 27-year-old is hitting .289 with two homers and five steals through 23 games this season.
Nolan Schanuel (knee) is back in the lineup for Tuesday’s series opener against the Mariners.
Schanuel is back at first base and batting second on Tuesday night after missing just one game recovering from a right knee contusion. The 23-year-old first baseman underwent additional testing over the weekend that didn’t reveal any fractures or structural damage, so he shouldn’t miss any time moving forward.